10+1 trends of Russian beer market 2015-2017Despite of the moderately negative prognoses for 2017, the beer market can be stabilized soon. Yet the years of the negative dynamics have resulted in marketing being limited just to “optimization” and the art of balancing between price and volumes. Bigger supermarkets share means stronger trade marketing. These processes are connected to the majority of the described trends. At the same time, the federal brands inflation leads to searching for new tastes, sales channels and contact formats that expand the product range and diversify the beer market, but do not imply a substantial volume increase. Let us enumerate and further discuss the ten trends of the beer market we can see in 2015-2017 as well as the major event of 2017.
Beer market of Ukraine 2017In the first half of 2017, the Ukrainian beer market goes on decreasing slowly. Yet, the companies manage to compensate their lost volumes by raising prices and improving the sales structures. This results in the mid price market segment reduction while the sales of premium brands are rising. These processes are connected to position strengthening of companies Carlsberg Group and Oasis and the market share reduction of Obolon. Most of the novelties by the market leaders belong to craft or hard lemon categories.
Beer market of Russia 2016: PET goes to draftThe beer market of Russia was warmed up by the hot summer, but the preparation for large volume PET prohibition has already impacted it negatively. The year was successful for Efes, MBC and regional producers; Carlsberg’s positions were virtually stable but AB InBev and Heineken lost a part of market share having focused on the sales profitability. The dynamics of big brands was determined by how much the companies were willing to keep the prices down or by their promotional activity. In this context the economy segment of the beer market and sales of inexpensive draft beer were increasing. The premium segment started shrinking due to license brands migrating to the mainstream segment.
Beer market of Vietnam: “Young tiger”Vietnam is one of the few big beer markets that continue to grow steadily. The beer popularity results from its low price, street consumption culture, and social motives. The outlooks of beer market as well as the Vietnamese economy inspire optimism, though the country is heavily dependent on export of goods. The state regulation can be called liberal, but the key risk for brewers is harbored in intensive rising of excise. Within TOP-4 there are two leaders, Sabeco and Heineken that grow at the fastest rates. The first company effectively employs its capacities, the second one focuses on marketing technologies. Almost 80% of the market belongs to century-old brands, yet the middle class and the youth are shifting their interest toward international premium that is growing taking share from the mainstream.
UK Beer Sales in the Three Months to the End of September 2010 Registered Their Fastest Fall Yet
•2011 per capita food consumption =+t1.5%; forecast to 2015 = +12.6%
•2011 alcoholic drink sales = +1.7%; forecast to 2015 = +12.7%
•2011 soft drink sales = +4% ; forecast to 2015 = +27.9%
•2011 mass grocery retail sales = +2.4%; forecast to 2015 = +20.4%
Key Industry Trends & Developments
UK Beer Sales Continue to Decline Figures from the British Beer & Pub Association (BBPA) suggest that UK beer sales in the three months to the end of September 2010 registered their fastest fall since the group began collating figures in 1997. The BBPA suggests that volume sales in the period fell by around 10% year-on-year (y-o-y), with sales through retailers (the off-trade) falling by 12% and sales through pubs and bars (the on-trade) falling by 8%. The fall represents a continuation of the long-term trend, but is likely to have been magnified by consumers reducing consumption in the aftermath of the FIFA World Cup.
Discount Sector No Longer Set for Record Beating Growth
Recent developments in the UK retail market have signalled that a widespread shift towards the discount sector in this market now looks unlikely to materialise in the medium term. Germany-based discounter Aldi has scrapped plans to build a new 600,000 square foot distribution centre on the Isle of Sheppey and also revealed in a filing with Companies House that its sales in 2009 increased by only 1.6% to GBP2.04bn, despite increasing its number of stores by 45. This comes after international discounter Netto announced a deal to sell its 193 stores in the UK to Asda, stating that it intended to focus on its operations in Scandinavia and Northern Europe
Key Risk to Outlook Return to recession
With the economic recovery still very weak, the government's plans for significant fiscal retrenchment combined with weak demand in the eurozone could be sufficient to tip the UK economy back into recession. Given that fiscal stimulus has been a key factor keeping the economy afloat during the global downturn, normalising the budget now could have a more detrimental impact on growth than we currently anticipate and as such, this remains a downside risk to our consumption forecasts. Eurozone debt crisis On the external front, the ongoing eurozone crisis poses a particular threat to investor confidence towards the UK. The risk of a major sovereign credit event on the continent would further damage confidence and put significant pressure on export demand and hence economic growth and consumption.
29 Jan. 2011