Global hop marketA local alternative to mass beer suggested by independent brewers has been successful and is now altering the global market. Beer is becoming more diversified, so transnational companies have to accept the new game rules and to switch focus to young and fast growing markets. All these processes increased the demand for aroma and bitter hop as well as their acreage expansion on two continents. However now there appeared a downward trend of alcohol consumption in the world, so even special sorts can soon turn to be sufficient. In this connection the dynamic American hop market is already facing some problems. EU hop producers have become more cautious, they are not racing to exceed the demand and look forward with more confidence, judging by the contract terms.
Hop Market in RussiaGermany still dominates the Russian market, yet over the recent two years one has been able observe a continuous success of Czech hop suppliers. Their expansion and growing popularity of hops from the United States became the drivers of supplies growth in 2016 despite the preceding modest harvest crop in the EU, as well as the factor of relative stability in 2017. In this connection, in 2017, the ratio of the varieties continued to shift towards the aroma ones, and the supplies of Magnum hop and other alpha varieties were reduced. However, the import of bitter hop pellets is partially replaced by extracts, especially from the major beer manufacturers. Total volumes of alpha acid supplies, according to our estimation, decreased by approximately 5% and returned to the level of 2015. Barth Haas Group continues dominating the hop products market; HVG also increased its weight. At the same time, Morris Hanbury significantly reduced the supplies in 2017.
10+1 trends of Russian beer market 2015-2017Despite of the moderately negative prognoses for 2017, the beer market can be stabilized soon. Yet the years of the negative dynamics have resulted in marketing being limited just to “optimization” and the art of balancing between price and volumes. Bigger supermarkets share means stronger trade marketing. These processes are connected to the majority of the described trends. At the same time, the federal brands inflation leads to searching for new tastes, sales channels and contact formats that expand the product range and diversify the beer market, but do not imply a substantial volume increase. Let us enumerate and further discuss the ten trends of the beer market we can see in 2015-2017 as well as the major event of 2017.
Beer market of Ukraine 2017In the first half of 2017, the Ukrainian beer market goes on decreasing slowly. Yet, the companies manage to compensate their lost volumes by raising prices and improving the sales structures. This results in the mid price market segment reduction while the sales of premium brands are rising. These processes are connected to position strengthening of companies Carlsberg Group and Oasis and the market share reduction of Obolon. Most of the novelties by the market leaders belong to craft or hard lemon categories.
Beer market of Russia 2016: PET goes to draftThe beer market of Russia was warmed up by the hot summer, but the preparation for large volume PET prohibition has already impacted it negatively. The year was successful for Efes, MBC and regional producers; Carlsberg’s positions were virtually stable but AB InBev and Heineken lost a part of market share having focused on the sales profitability. The dynamics of big brands was determined by how much the companies were willing to keep the prices down or by their promotional activity. In this context the economy segment of the beer market and sales of inexpensive draft beer were increasing. The premium segment started shrinking due to license brands migrating to the mainstream segment.
AB InBev to profit from Brazil, U.S. costs in Q4
The maker of Budweiser, Stella Artois and Beck's forecast core profit growth in the fourth quarter would be "materially" higher than the 9 percent rise in the third, partly because it spent heavily on U.S. product launches at the end of 2009.
The average rise expected in a Reuters poll of 17 brokers was 15 percent.
Brazil, where the company has two-thirds of the beer market, and the United States, where it has about half, will dominate investor attention, along with AB InBev's comments on input costs this year.
Guidance on total cost of sales will be of particular interest, given rocketing raw materials prices. The futures price for malting barley has risen 37 percent since the launch of the contract last May.
Cost of sales per hectoliter are expected to have been flat to slightly higher in 2010, but some rise would be expected for this year.
Beer sales in Brazil rose 14 percent in the first nine months of 2010, bringing in 30 percent of the company's core earnings. That pace is expected to slow, but by how much?
Margins in the country are also expected to rise, due to price hikes as well as relative weakness at the end of 2009, making softer comparative figures.
In the United States, responsible for almost half of core earnings in Jan-Sept 2010, investors will closely watch cost savings from InBev's 2008 takeover of Anheuser-Busch as well as the top line.
Drinking there is closely correlated to labor market dynamics. The U.S. jobless rate dropped to 9 percent in January, its lowest level since April 2009, opening up the prospect of growth ahead.
For now, the focus has been on limiting a steady decline in volumes and shifting drinkers onto higher-priced brands.
AB InBev is the last of the big four brewers to provide information on the final months of 2010.
World number two SABMiller , with a strong presence in fast-growing African and Latin American markets, said lager volumes rose 3 percent in the fourth quarter.
World number three Heineken, the market leader in western Europe, suffered volume decline, but increased profit by saving in Europe and from its large Mexican acquisition.
Fourth-largest brewer Carlsberg warned of modest growth and squeezed margins in Russia.
Bullish brokers say Thursday's earnings and outlook could prompt an AB InBev recovery.
3 Mar. 2011