10+1 trends of Russian beer market 2015-2017Despite of the moderately negative prognoses for 2017, the beer market can be stabilized soon. Yet the years of the negative dynamics have resulted in marketing being limited just to “optimization” and the art of balancing between price and volumes. Bigger supermarkets share means stronger trade marketing. These processes are connected to the majority of the described trends. At the same time, the federal brands inflation leads to searching for new tastes, sales channels and contact formats that expand the product range and diversify the beer market, but do not imply a substantial volume increase. Let us enumerate and further discuss the ten trends of the beer market we can see in 2015-2017 as well as the major event of 2017.
Beer market of Ukraine 2017In the first half of 2017, the Ukrainian beer market goes on decreasing slowly. Yet, the companies manage to compensate their lost volumes by raising prices and improving the sales structures. This results in the mid price market segment reduction while the sales of premium brands are rising. These processes are connected to position strengthening of companies Carlsberg Group and Oasis and the market share reduction of Obolon. Most of the novelties by the market leaders belong to craft or hard lemon categories.
Beer market of Russia 2016: PET goes to draftThe beer market of Russia was warmed up by the hot summer, but the preparation for large volume PET prohibition has already impacted it negatively. The year was successful for Efes, MBC and regional producers; Carlsberg’s positions were virtually stable but AB InBev and Heineken lost a part of market share having focused on the sales profitability. The dynamics of big brands was determined by how much the companies were willing to keep the prices down or by their promotional activity. In this context the economy segment of the beer market and sales of inexpensive draft beer were increasing. The premium segment started shrinking due to license brands migrating to the mainstream segment.
Beer market of Vietnam: “Young tiger”Vietnam is one of the few big beer markets that continue to grow steadily. The beer popularity results from its low price, street consumption culture, and social motives. The outlooks of beer market as well as the Vietnamese economy inspire optimism, though the country is heavily dependent on export of goods. The state regulation can be called liberal, but the key risk for brewers is harbored in intensive rising of excise. Within TOP-4 there are two leaders, Sabeco and Heineken that grow at the fastest rates. The first company effectively employs its capacities, the second one focuses on marketing technologies. Almost 80% of the market belongs to century-old brands, yet the middle class and the youth are shifting their interest toward international premium that is growing taking share from the mainstream.
Modelo Said to Seek Support for Foster’s Bid
Such a proposal would need the backing of Anheuser-Busch InBev NV (ABI), which has nine seats on Modelo’s 19-person board and holds a 50 percent non-controlling stake. An offer would have to be at least $9 billion, or more than Foster’s current market value, said the people, who declined to be identified because the talks are private.
AB InBev is likely to tell Modelo at the meeting whether it will officially support or oppose a bid, said the people. The companies have discussed the idea, and AB InBev has raised concerns, including how the two companies would work together to manage a business based in Australia, one of the people said.
Jennifer Shelley, a spokeswoman for Modelo, declined to comment. Colin Wheeler, a spokesman for Denver-based Molson Coors, and Marianne Amssoms, a spokeswoman for Anheuser-Busch InBev, also declined to comment.
Molson Coors remains interested in pursuing a joint bid for Foster’s, said one of the people. If a joint Modelo-Molson Coors bid falls apart or is thwarted by AB InBev, then Modelo and Molson Coors could also pursue a bid on their own or with other partners, people said this month.
Modelo fell 1.57 pesos, or 2.2 percent, to 71.02 pesos in Mexico City trading as of 4:10 p.m. New York time. Molson Coors fell 52 cents to $44.22 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.
Financing the Deal
The brewers are working with banks including Bank of America Corp. and Deutsche Bank AG on lining up financing for a potential purchase, said the people, who declined to be identified because the matter is private. Melbourne-based Foster’s has a market value of about A$8.8 billion ($9.3 billion).
Modelo is being advised by Bank of America and Greenhill & Co., and Molson Coors is working with Deutsche Bank, the people said. The Mexican brewer had about $2.27 billion of cash and cash equivalents at the end of March and no bank or bond debt.
AB InBev inherited its Modelo stake with the $52 billion purchase of Anheuser-Busch in 2008. Carlos Fernandez, chairman and chief executive of Modelo, sued to block the sale of the Modelo shares to AB InBev and lost in a ruling last year.
Fernandez has rejected selling control of Modelo to AB InBev and has said he’d be interested in buying back the stake. The company faces increased competition in Mexico after Fomento Economico Mexicano SAB sold its brewery to Heineken NV last year in a transaction valued at $7.35 billion.
11 Jun. 2011