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4-2017

Global hop market

A local alternative to mass beer suggested by independent brewers has been successful and is now altering the global market. Beer is becoming more diversified, so transnational companies have to accept the new game rules and to switch focus to young and fast growing markets. All these processes increased the demand for aroma and bitter hop as well as their acreage expansion on two continents. However now there appeared a downward trend of alcohol consumption in the world, so even special sorts can soon turn to be sufficient. In this connection the dynamic American hop market is already facing some problems. EU hop producers have become more cautious, they are not racing to exceed the demand and look forward with more confidence, judging by the contract terms. 

Hop Market in Russia

Germany still dominates the Russian market, yet over the recent two years one has been able observe a continuous success of Czech hop suppliers. Their expansion and growing popularity of hops from the United States became the drivers of supplies growth in 2016 despite the preceding modest harvest crop in the EU, as well as the factor of relative stability in 2017. In this connection, in 2017, the ratio of the varieties continued to shift towards the aroma ones, and the supplies of Magnum hop and other alpha varieties were reduced. However, the import of bitter hop pellets is partially replaced by extracts, especially from the major beer manufacturers. Total volumes of alpha acid supplies, according to our estimation, decreased by approximately 5% and returned to the level of 2015. Barth Haas Group continues dominating the hop products market; HVG also increased its weight. At the same time, Morris Hanbury significantly reduced the supplies in 2017.

UBS downgrades beer brewer Molson Coors

UBS downgrades Molson Coors on slowing growth of Coors Light, Miller Lite sales declines
An analyst at UBS Investment Research downgraded the stock of beer company Molson Coors Brewing Co., saying beer sales are declining.

Major beer makers have struggled recently because of high unemployment amongst young men in the U.S. In November, Molson Coors said that its third-quarter profit fell 23 percent due to high costs and unemployment among its core customers.

Analyst Kaumil Gajrawala on Tuesday downgraded Molson Coor's stock to "Neutral" from "Buy" and lowered the stock's price target by $1 to $45.

He said that even if employment trends improve, domestic beers like the company's Miller Lite brand are losing market share to specialty craft beer, imported beer and wine and spirits.

Gajrawala lowered his profit predictions for Molson Coors for the next two years. He now expects earnings of $3.60 per share this year, down from a previous forecast of $3.69 per share; and of $3.81 per share next year, down from $3.96 per share.

Analysts polled by FactSet expect earnings of $3.63 per share this year and $3.79 per share in 2013.

Gajrawala said that Coors Light volumes grew for most of the past year, but turned negative in the past few months. Miller Lite sales, meanwhile, are declining, but Gajrawala said that a new Miller Lite advertising campaign could help the brand's market share.

Coors Light became the second best-selling beer in the United States last year, surpassing Budweiser, according to trade publication Beer Marketer's Insights. Budweiser is made by Anheuser-Busch Inbev.

Gajrawala said that spending on information technology will offset any of the company's cost savings.

A Molson Coors spokesperson said that the company does not comment on analyst reports.

26 Jan. 2012

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