10+1 trends of Russian beer market 2015-2017Despite of the moderately negative prognoses for 2017, the beer market can be stabilized soon. Yet the years of the negative dynamics have resulted in marketing being limited just to “optimization” and the art of balancing between price and volumes. Bigger supermarkets share means stronger trade marketing. These processes are connected to the majority of the described trends. At the same time, the federal brands inflation leads to searching for new tastes, sales channels and contact formats that expand the product range and diversify the beer market, but do not imply a substantial volume increase. Let us enumerate and further discuss the ten trends of the beer market we can see in 2015-2017 as well as the major event of 2017.
Beer market of Ukraine 2017In the first half of 2017, the Ukrainian beer market goes on decreasing slowly. Yet, the companies manage to compensate their lost volumes by raising prices and improving the sales structures. This results in the mid price market segment reduction while the sales of premium brands are rising. These processes are connected to position strengthening of companies Carlsberg Group and Oasis and the market share reduction of Obolon. Most of the novelties by the market leaders belong to craft or hard lemon categories.
Beer market of Russia 2016: PET goes to draftThe beer market of Russia was warmed up by the hot summer, but the preparation for large volume PET prohibition has already impacted it negatively. The year was successful for Efes, MBC and regional producers; Carlsberg’s positions were virtually stable but AB InBev and Heineken lost a part of market share having focused on the sales profitability. The dynamics of big brands was determined by how much the companies were willing to keep the prices down or by their promotional activity. In this context the economy segment of the beer market and sales of inexpensive draft beer were increasing. The premium segment started shrinking due to license brands migrating to the mainstream segment.
Beer market of Vietnam: “Young tiger”Vietnam is one of the few big beer markets that continue to grow steadily. The beer popularity results from its low price, street consumption culture, and social motives. The outlooks of beer market as well as the Vietnamese economy inspire optimism, though the country is heavily dependent on export of goods. The state regulation can be called liberal, but the key risk for brewers is harbored in intensive rising of excise. Within TOP-4 there are two leaders, Sabeco and Heineken that grow at the fastest rates. The first company effectively employs its capacities, the second one focuses on marketing technologies. Almost 80% of the market belongs to century-old brands, yet the middle class and the youth are shifting their interest toward international premium that is growing taking share from the mainstream.
Discontent grows against AB InBev bonuses
* CEO set to gain 144 million euros from bonus scheme
* A further 39 AB InBev executives set to gain
* AB InBev hits debt target two years early
Discontent is building against executive bonuses totaling more than 1 billion euros ($1.33 billion) at Anheuser-Busch InBev triggered when the brewer cut its huge debt two years ahead of target following the acquisition of the maker of Budweiser.
Executive options were set on how rapidly the world's biggest brewer could cut debt, and with the target now reached Chief Executive Carlos Brito is in line for a windfall of more than 100 million euros among 40 AB InBev executives set to benefit from the scheme.
"No one can be worth that kind of money. Indeed, companies with the highest bonuses are not necessarily the best run. Just look at the financial sector," said Flemish Socialist Democrat lawmaker Dirk Van der Maelen.
The brewer of Stella Artois and Beck's reported earlier this month in its annual results that net debt had fallen sharply by the end of 2011 to trigger the options, half of which are due to vest at the start of 2014.
Belgium-based Inbev took over Budweiser-brewer Anheuser Busch in late 2008 for $52 billion in cash, and then sold off non-core business rapidly and cut costs at the U.S. brewer dramatically to bring its hefty debt down sharply.
The company's shares slumped as the group tried to conclude the then world's biggest cash takeover in the midst of a financial crisis following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, but since the deal was concluded in November 2008 the shares have soared.
The shares hit a low of 9.96 euros in late November 2008 from a high of 43.1 euros in October 2007 due to the financial crisis and concern over the deal's size, but have recovered strongly and hit a new record high on March 27 of 55.61 euros.
"Clearly the Anheuser Busch acquisition has been good for shareholders, but in hindsight the bonuses were set very generously considering the cash generative nature of brewing and the programme of disposals the group had agreed," said one AB InBev shareholders speaking in London.
The brewer cut debt by selling off brewing assets in eastern Europe, Korea and China and non-core businesses like Anheuser Busch's SeaWorld leisure parks, while bringing together two of the world's top brewers created big cost savings.
TWO YEARS EARLY
The company granted 28 million share options at an exercise price of 10.32 euros at the closing of the Anheuser Busch deal to 40 executives it believed were key to the successful integration of the two brewing companies. Half the options vest on Jan. 1, 2014 and the other half on the same date in 2019.
This 2008 exceptional option grant was set to vest if the group's net debt to core EBITDA profit ratio fell below 2.5 times before the end of 2013. The actual debt ratio fell to 2.26 times by the end of 2011.
Based on a current share price of 54.62 euro, the profit would be 1.24 billion euros for the 40 executives, or some 144 million euros for Brito.
"A worker would take 4,500 years to get to the bonus of Brito... Bonuses for managers are based on hitting budget targets, so you have cutbacks in repairs or preventative measures," said Kris Croonenborghs of blue collar ABVV union.
The bonus issue also annoyed group managers and office staff who are seeking work security guarantees, according to union officials, while Brito appeared to have security up to 2019 when his options fully vest.
"There is a lot of indignation. We are talking about white-collar staff and managers who are seeking guarantees of work until the end of 2014, which InBev is refusing to provide. We are not asking for anything that costs," said Roger Van Vlasselaer, a leader in the white collar BBTK union.
"Set against this is the gigantic bonus. It's a huge scandal, pure madness," he added.
Analysts said it had been clear that debt was going to tumble sharply given the group's planned disposals and the costs which could be trimmed from Anheuser Busch's bloated budgets.
Group net debt/EBITDA stood at 5.5 times when the deal was completed in November 2008, then it fell to 4.7 times by the end of 2008 after a planned $9.8 billion rights issue, which was set at a steeply discounted price of 6.45 euros a share.
The brewer said its debt fell to $34.7 billion at end 2011 down $5 billion from end-2010 and the net debt to EBITDA fell to 2.26 times from 2.86 times. It expects to reach a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 2 times during 2012.
28 Mar. 2012