Global hop marketA local alternative to mass beer suggested by independent brewers has been successful and is now altering the global market. Beer is becoming more diversified, so transnational companies have to accept the new game rules and to switch focus to young and fast growing markets. All these processes increased the demand for aroma and bitter hop as well as their acreage expansion on two continents. However now there appeared a downward trend of alcohol consumption in the world, so even special sorts can soon turn to be sufficient. In this connection the dynamic American hop market is already facing some problems. EU hop producers have become more cautious, they are not racing to exceed the demand and look forward with more confidence, judging by the contract terms.
Hop Market in RussiaGermany still dominates the Russian market, yet over the recent two years one has been able observe a continuous success of Czech hop suppliers. Their expansion and growing popularity of hops from the United States became the drivers of supplies growth in 2016 despite the preceding modest harvest crop in the EU, as well as the factor of relative stability in 2017. In this connection, in 2017, the ratio of the varieties continued to shift towards the aroma ones, and the supplies of Magnum hop and other alpha varieties were reduced. However, the import of bitter hop pellets is partially replaced by extracts, especially from the major beer manufacturers. Total volumes of alpha acid supplies, according to our estimation, decreased by approximately 5% and returned to the level of 2015. Barth Haas Group continues dominating the hop products market; HVG also increased its weight. At the same time, Morris Hanbury significantly reduced the supplies in 2017.
10+1 trends of Russian beer market 2015-2017Despite of the moderately negative prognoses for 2017, the beer market can be stabilized soon. Yet the years of the negative dynamics have resulted in marketing being limited just to “optimization” and the art of balancing between price and volumes. Bigger supermarkets share means stronger trade marketing. These processes are connected to the majority of the described trends. At the same time, the federal brands inflation leads to searching for new tastes, sales channels and contact formats that expand the product range and diversify the beer market, but do not imply a substantial volume increase. Let us enumerate and further discuss the ten trends of the beer market we can see in 2015-2017 as well as the major event of 2017.
Beer market of Ukraine 2017In the first half of 2017, the Ukrainian beer market goes on decreasing slowly. Yet, the companies manage to compensate their lost volumes by raising prices and improving the sales structures. This results in the mid price market segment reduction while the sales of premium brands are rising. These processes are connected to position strengthening of companies Carlsberg Group and Oasis and the market share reduction of Obolon. Most of the novelties by the market leaders belong to craft or hard lemon categories.
Beer market of Russia 2016: PET goes to draftThe beer market of Russia was warmed up by the hot summer, but the preparation for large volume PET prohibition has already impacted it negatively. The year was successful for Efes, MBC and regional producers; Carlsberg’s positions were virtually stable but AB InBev and Heineken lost a part of market share having focused on the sales profitability. The dynamics of big brands was determined by how much the companies were willing to keep the prices down or by their promotional activity. In this context the economy segment of the beer market and sales of inexpensive draft beer were increasing. The premium segment started shrinking due to license brands migrating to the mainstream segment.
Volume or niche – the beer market needs the right answers
Growth in volumes will continue to be a feature of the global beer market for
many, many years to come, according to the market researchers. The simple
reason is that worldwide per-capita consumption is still below 30 liters.
Canadean, for example, is predicting that between 2009 and 2015 the world
beer market will have grown by 2.8 percent per year on average. For Asia,
Canadean is forecasting an annual average increase of 5 percent for the
same period. These British market researchers also predict an annual rise of
5 percent for the African beer market, 3 percent for South America and
5.5 percent for the Middle East. For Eastern Europe their forecast is a rise of
only around 1.5 percnet, and, for North America, even lower, at only 0.5
percent. For Western Europe, Canadean is even predicting a small decline.
As growth hot spots, they have identified Kazakhstan, Vietnam, Angola and
India, some of which will see double-digit increases.
China soon to represent one quarter of the world beer market
The market researchers at Euromonitor come to similar conclusions. In the
period from 2011 to 2016 they are expecting the strongest expansion, with
rates of around or even higher than 10 percent in India and Iran. The fastest
growing volume markets, they predict, will be China and Brazil, both growing
at around 5 percent per year. However, the markets in the US, Russia and
Germany, they say, will probably shrink by around 0.5 to 1.5 percent per year.
This strong growth in the Asian markets, says Canadean, means that in 2015
around 40 percent of the world?s beer output will be brewed in this region. For
many years now the Asian market has been dominated by China, which
Euromonitor sees as reaching 624 million hectoliters by the end of 2015. In
other words: In just a few years time, China will be accounting for at least one
quarter of the world beer market, and it will then be at least twice as big as the
number two, the US.
Germany: Faint blossoming of interest in specialty beers
In the stagnating or shrinking traditional beer markets, such as the US and
Germany, there is, however, an interesting trend: the increase in craft beers
and specialty beers. According to GfK ConsumerScan beer demand in
German households fell by 0.2 percent in 2012. The value of beer purchases,
by contrast, rose by 0.4 percent. This shows therefore that the consumer is
basically willing to spend more on beer, a theory supported by the
development in the price classes for 0.5-liter returnable beer crates, according
to statistics gathered by GfK. The only clear increase in a year-on-year
comparison 2011/2012 was seen here in the €13 and over segment, from 13
to 16 percent. Admittedly, this is only a faint blossoming, the German market
in 2012 having in fact trended downwards. According to the German Federal
Statistical Office (Statistisches Bundesamt – Destatis), year-on-year beer
sales fell by 1.8 percent, or 1.8 million hectoliters to 96.5 hectoliters of beer. In
2013, too, no end is in sight to this trend: In the first quarter German beer
sales dropped a further 4.3 percent as compared to the same period last year.
USA demonstrates the potential of craft brewers
For some time now the US has been demonstrating the power of specialist
beers – the "craft brewers" movement started out there and has been very
popular. According to the Brewers Association, in 2012 this segment saw
volumes increase by 15 percent and monetary value by 17 percent. In 2011
the rises were 13 and 15 percent respectively. In total the craft brewer
segment in the overall US beer market in 2012 accounted for 6.5 percent by
volume and 10.2 percent in monetary value. This success story is even more
notable when you consider the number of brewing facilities in the US: In the
1970s there were only 89 in the entire country, but now that figure is 2,403 –
with 2,347 of them being brew pubs, microbreweries or regional craft
drinktec presents raw materials, technology and expertise for all
The world beer market – interesting for its increasing segmentation – will be
covered in full at drinktec 2013, from micro to global brewers, and right
across the spectrum from raw materials and process technology to packaging
and marketing. For example, the first day of the show in the drinktec Forum
will be dedicated to beer. "German beer – fit for the future? Risks and
chances" is the question posed by Peter Hahn from the Deutscher Brauer-
Bund. Small and medium-sized companies should make a note of the lecture
by J?rgen Nordmann from St?rtebeker Braumanufaktur, who will be speaking
about "Strategy options for medium-sized breweries in a declining beer
The new Innovation Flow Lounge (IFL) in which attention focuses entirely on
marketing, is looking at the subject of beer in its program for the first day of
the show. IFL partner Krones is sending its expert Charles Schmidt to talk
about "The power of social media". And "With hops to the top" is the title of a
talk by Stephan J. Barth, Managing Director of the Barth-Haas Group.
On the second day of the show, the winners in the "European Beer Star"
competition, one of the world?s most prestigious beer awards, will be offered
for tasting. And on the Sunday before drinktec opens, the World Beer
Sommelier Championships will be held and the winner crowned in the
exhibition halls in Munich. Also at drinktec 2013 there are two more hotspots
for brewers from all over the world: The Brewers Meeting Point, held in Hall
B1 in cooperation with the Bayerischer Brauerbund. One of the attractions
here is the chance to take part in exclusive beer samplings. The other hotspot
is the Craft Brewers Lounge in Hall A5. Here, European brewers can meet up
with and talk to members of the US Brewers Association. All of which adds up
to many good "beery" reasons to visit drinktec 2013!
31 Jul. 2013