Analysis of beer market in China (on Russian)
Beer market of Ukraine: big three losing weightIn 2016, fast increase of excises and resulting price spike stood in the way of the beer market stabilization. Most of competition (as well as mass sorts) moved to the economy segment of the market. The biggest losses were incurred by the leading three, especially Obolon, which again experienced pressure after reallocation of Efes market share. However, one should already speak of TOP-4. Group Oasis CIS (PPB) became a strong player and competitor to transnational companies. Besides the net sales of many regional medium breweries look rather good and 16-fold cost reduction wholesale trade license for craft brewers opens up a possibility of rapid growth in 2017.
Analysis of beer market in China
China’s transition to a “new normal” reality backfired on the brewing industry unexpectedly. Stagnation and subsequent market decline resulted from dynamic social and economic changes. There has emerged a “two speed” market where the medium class significance is growing, yet the share of main beer consumers, “blue collar” is decreasing. Also the inflow of consumers is shrinking, as demographics stopped being a growth driver. Finally, beer is giving way to other alcohol drinks....
Malaysia. CIMB Research retains Overweight on brewers
Hence, it adjusted its earnings slightly by lowering malt liquor market (MLM) volume and imputing higher average selling prices to account for the changes in the duty structure as well as the removal of the ad valorem tax.
“We maintain Overweight on the sector while switching our sector’s top pick to Guinness Anchr Bhd (GAB) from Carlsberg given the higher potential upside,” it said on Thursday.
CIMB Research said the two brewers move to hike prices on average by 2%-5% as fair as they have been maintaining prices since 2015 despite the implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST) which came into effect in April 2015, and other cost hikes.
Any downside to MLM volume is expected to be limited given the manageable quantum of increase and consumers switching to beer from other alcoholic drinks. The removal of the 15% ad valorem tax creates a level playing field for all, it said.
“Overall, we believe that MLM volumes are unlikely to be impacted significantly. The removal of the 15% ad valorem tax across all beer categories is also positive for brewers.
“Given that all types of beer with similar alcohol content will be subject to the same fixed rate based on the duty structure, this creates a fair competitive environment regardless of the brewer or brewing location,” it said.
11 Mar. 2016