Analysis of beer market in China (on Russian)
Beer market of Ukraine: big three losing weightIn 2016, fast increase of excises and resulting price spike stood in the way of the beer market stabilization. Most of competition (as well as mass sorts) moved to the economy segment of the market. The biggest losses were incurred by the leading three, especially Obolon, which again experienced pressure after reallocation of Efes market share. However, one should already speak of TOP-4. Group Oasis CIS (PPB) became a strong player and competitor to transnational companies. Besides the net sales of many regional medium breweries look rather good and 16-fold cost reduction wholesale trade license for craft brewers opens up a possibility of rapid growth in 2017.
Analysis of beer market in China
China’s transition to a “new normal” reality backfired on the brewing industry unexpectedly. Stagnation and subsequent market decline resulted from dynamic social and economic changes. There has emerged a “two speed” market where the medium class significance is growing, yet the share of main beer consumers, “blue collar” is decreasing. Also the inflow of consumers is shrinking, as demographics stopped being a growth driver. Finally, beer is giving way to other alcohol drinks....
China Resources Beer goes upmarket to counter slowing sales
Full-year underlying profits for the group's beer assets increased 14% to HK$831 million ($101 million), partly helped by a 3.2% increase in its average sales price. Revenue slowed to 1% growth, reaching HK$34.8 billion in the 12 months ended December.
The higher profit in its beer business came in spite of a 1.3% fall in sales volume on the year. Meanwhile, the group saw a 15% rise in sales volume from its mid-end and premium sector, which now accounts for more than 45% of the total.
Earlier in March, CR Beer agreed to pay a less-than-expected $1.6 billion for SABMiller's remaining 49% stake in the brewer behind the world's best-selling Snow beer -- China Resources Snow Breweries, which was a joint venture between the two brewers.
Vincent Tse, investor relations director at CR Beer, said the deal was based upon a "friendly price" after "arm's length negotiation," adding that the brewer would not rule out future cooperation with SABMiller and plans to seek overseas partnerships.
While the deal is awaiting regulatory approval and is scheduled to close at the end of this year, Guotai Junan Securities maintained a "neutral" rating for CR Beer on Mar. 2. "The deal is not likely to ease the already intense competition and room for a hike in average selling price is limited in the Chinese beer industry," said Andrew Song, an analyst at the Chinese brokerage.
"Growth has been difficult for the beer industry, but the premium sector is still growing," Jason Hou, general manager at China Resources Snow Breweries told reporters on Friday. The brewer has a "low single-digit" growth target for its sales and average selling price in the coming year, he added.
CR Beer changed its name from China Resources Enterprises after it sold non-beer assets including the loss-making Tesco stores to its unlisted parent China Resources Holdings in September for $3.6 billion. Its underlying losses of discontinued operations, including retail, food and beverages, surged more than threefold to HK$5.65 billion from a year earlier.
The beer market in China is highly competitive. CR Beer had a 23% market share in 2014, with Tsingtao Brewery second at 18%, according to market research group Euromonitor International. The rest is divided between major brewers such as Beijing Yanjing Brewery, Anheuser Busch InBev, Carlsberg and a handful of smaller players.
But others say the beer sector in China still has room for margin expansion and "premiumization" -- a trend that has seen more wealthy consumers trading up to more expensive brands of alcohol.
21 Mar. 2016