Analysis of beer market in China (on Russian)
Beer market of Ukraine: big three losing weightIn 2016, fast increase of excises and resulting price spike stood in the way of the beer market stabilization. Most of competition (as well as mass sorts) moved to the economy segment of the market. The biggest losses were incurred by the leading three, especially Obolon, which again experienced pressure after reallocation of Efes market share. However, one should already speak of TOP-4. Group Oasis CIS (PPB) became a strong player and competitor to transnational companies. Besides the net sales of many regional medium breweries look rather good and 16-fold cost reduction wholesale trade license for craft brewers opens up a possibility of rapid growth in 2017.
Analysis of beer market in China
China’s transition to a “new normal” reality backfired on the brewing industry unexpectedly. Stagnation and subsequent market decline resulted from dynamic social and economic changes. There has emerged a “two speed” market where the medium class significance is growing, yet the share of main beer consumers, “blue collar” is decreasing. Also the inflow of consumers is shrinking, as demographics stopped being a growth driver. Finally, beer is giving way to other alcohol drinks....
Heineken Beer Volume Beats Estimates on Asia, Americas
Beer volume rose 7 percent, the world’s third-biggest brewer said Wednesday in a statement. Analysts expected 2.4 percent growth. The figure excludes the impact of acquisitions, disposals and currency swings. Profit fell 54 percent to 265 million euros ($301 million) due to a 379 million-euro capital gain last year from the sale of a Mexican packaging unit. The shares rose 3.2 percent as of 9:08 a.m. in Amsterdam, having touched a record 86.95 euros.
It’s a “blowout performance,” wrote Jonathan Fyfe, an analyst at Mirabaud. “The quarter is an advert for Heineken’s favorable market positioning across the Americas region.”
The surprise is a large one for Heineken, which has reported sales within 1.5 percentage points of the analyst consensus in each of the past 10 years. The underlying business in Asia was also strong, Fyfe said.
“Can we analysts be quite that badly wrong?,” Andrew Holland, an analyst at Societe Generale, said by phone. ‘‘Well, yes we can, but the company did also flag the timing of New Year celebrations in China and Vietnam and other one-offs.”
Beer volume in Asia Pacific rose 23 percent, boosted by Vietnamese and Chinese new year celebrations. Growth in the region was almost five times faster than the 4.5 percent median analyst estimate. In Africa, Middle East and Eastern Europe, volume growth was led by Ethiopia and Nigeria, where the company has forecast that conditions will remain challenging and the consumer environment weak due to the low global oil price.
The company didn’t quantify the impact of the new year parties and early Easter in the release.
Heineken also reiterated guidance that it anticipates stronger sales and profit in 2016 despite a slowdown in some emerging markets, where the company generates nearly two-thirds of its earnings. The maker of Tiger lager has forecast gains in Asia including in Vietnam, one of its three largest markets. But it’s not alone, as Denmark’s Carlsberg A/S is also pursuing growth in Vietnam and countries like India to offset persistent declines in Russia.
Heineken is trying to keep a lid on expectations by leaving the guidance unchanged, Societe Generale’s Holland said.
20 Apr. 2016