Analysis of beer market in China (on Russian)
Beer market of Ukraine: big three losing weightIn 2016, fast increase of excises and resulting price spike stood in the way of the beer market stabilization. Most of competition (as well as mass sorts) moved to the economy segment of the market. The biggest losses were incurred by the leading three, especially Obolon, which again experienced pressure after reallocation of Efes market share. However, one should already speak of TOP-4. Group Oasis CIS (PPB) became a strong player and competitor to transnational companies. Besides the net sales of many regional medium breweries look rather good and 16-fold cost reduction wholesale trade license for craft brewers opens up a possibility of rapid growth in 2017.
Analysis of beer market in China
China’s transition to a “new normal” reality backfired on the brewing industry unexpectedly. Stagnation and subsequent market decline resulted from dynamic social and economic changes. There has emerged a “two speed” market where the medium class significance is growing, yet the share of main beer consumers, “blue collar” is decreasing. Also the inflow of consumers is shrinking, as demographics stopped being a growth driver. Finally, beer is giving way to other alcohol drinks....
China. In the first half of 2016, the beer production continued to decline
And in June, there was a 3.6% downslide to 48.07 mln hl.
Last year saw an uninterrupted decline, yet it was the deepest during the first half of 2015 and stood at 6.2%. Potentially, it should have led to the low base effect and positive trend in the first half of 2016. However the beer production decrease in China is continuing approximately at the same rates.
If we compare the operational data for 2016 to the volumes of 2015, the estimated production decline will be twice bigger, that is, 8.4% as output fell from 245.7 mln hl in 2015 to 225.2 mln hl in 2016. Such difference can be explained by the operational data being not final and liable to addition. That is why the production decline calculated by comparing the old updated figures and new operational ones, seems to be underestimated.
4 Aug. 2016