Beer market of Russia 2016: PET goes to draftThe beer market of Russia was warmed up by the hot summer, but the preparation for large volume PET prohibition has already impacted it negatively. The year was successful for Efes, MBC and regional producers; Carlsberg’s positions were virtually stable but AB InBev and Heineken lost a part of market share having focused on the sales profitability. The dynamics of big brands was determined by how much the companies were willing to keep the prices down or by their promotional activity. In this context the economy segment of the beer market and sales of inexpensive draft beer were increasing. The premium segment started shrinking due to license brands migrating to the mainstream segment.
Beer market of Vietnam: “Young tiger”Vietnam is one of the few big beer markets that continue to grow steadily. The beer popularity results from its low price, street consumption culture, and social motives. The outlooks of beer market as well as the Vietnamese economy inspire optimism, though the country is heavily dependent on export of goods. The state regulation can be called liberal, but the key risk for brewers is harbored in intensive rising of excise. Within TOP-4 there are two leaders, Sabeco and Heineken that grow at the fastest rates. The first company effectively employs its capacities, the second one focuses on marketing technologies. Almost 80% of the market belongs to century-old brands, yet the middle class and the youth are shifting their interest toward international premium that is growing taking share from the mainstream.
Analysis of beer market in China (on Russian)
Beer market of Ukraine: big three losing weightIn 2016, fast increase of excises and resulting price spike stood in the way of the beer market stabilization. Most of competition (as well as mass sorts) moved to the economy segment of the market. The biggest losses were incurred by the leading three, especially Obolon, which again experienced pressure after reallocation of Efes market share. However, one should already speak of TOP-4. Group Oasis CIS (PPB) became a strong player and competitor to transnational companies. Besides the net sales of many regional medium breweries look rather good and 16-fold cost reduction wholesale trade license for craft brewers opens up a possibility of rapid growth in 2017.
Thailand. ThaiBev’s Tipsy Valuation Risks a Hangover for Investors
Fully 63 percent of working-age Thais are teetotallers, according to a 2007 study, and yet trailing 12-month revenues at the maker of Chang beer and Mekhong rum have risen 53 percent over the past five years.
You might expect the death of Thailand's King Bhumibol Adulyadej last Thursday to have interrupted this revelry. Public drinking will be frowned on during the 12-month period of mourning and ThaiBev's own website was switched into somber black and white to mark the event. Alcohol sales will be more strictly limited to particular times of the day, according to the Guardian, and hypermarket giant Tesco Lotus suspended all sales of alcoholic drinks, according to AEC News Today.
ThaiBev shares' peak gain Friday
If that's bad news for ThaiBev, someone omitted to tell the shareholders. After falling last week as the king's health worsened, the Singapore-traded stock rebounded with a 1.7 percent gain ahead of the official announcement of his death. In a classic example of sell-the-rumor, buy-the-fact, it rose as much as 3.8 percent on Friday -- the sharpest gain since July. By the close of trade it had only modestly underperformed the benchmark SET index over the period since the King was hospitalized.
Part of this may represent doubts that the mourning period will turn out to be quite as stringent as everyone expects, though the wailing crowds thronging Thai streets since news of the king's death broke argue against such a conclusion.
ThaiBev's very success is a testament to the country's relaxed interpretation of some of its moral codes. Indeed, one 2002 paper found that Thai men who'd spent periods in their youth living in Buddhist temples were more likely to be heavy drinkers in adulthood than those who had not -- the opposite of what would be expected if the sanction on alcohol was unbreakable.
It's certainly not based on an expectation that ThaiBev's other businesses will help the company ride out a decline in drinking: Just 4.1 percent of its 2015 revenues came from overseas, and 13 percent from food and non-alcoholic drinks.
Shareholders at present give ThaiBev a forward price-earnings ratio of 21 -- bang on the median for brewers and distillers globally with more than $1 billion in trailing 12-month sales, and ahead of the likes of Diageo, Heineken, Carlsberg and Kweichow Moutai. If more Thais respond to their monarch's death by abstaining from alcohol than choose to drown their sorrows, that valuation could start looking tipsy.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.
-By market capitalization.
-It's often described as a whisky, but is made principally from sugar cane, not malted grains.
17 Oct. 2016