10+1 trends of Russian beer market 2015-2017Despite of the moderately negative prognoses for 2017, the beer market can be stabilized soon. Yet the years of the negative dynamics have resulted in marketing being limited just to “optimization” and the art of balancing between price and volumes. Bigger supermarkets share means stronger trade marketing. These processes are connected to the majority of the described trends. At the same time, the federal brands inflation leads to searching for new tastes, sales channels and contact formats that expand the product range and diversify the beer market, but do not imply a substantial volume increase. Let us enumerate and further discuss the ten trends of the beer market we can see in 2015-2017 as well as the major event of 2017.
Beer market of Ukraine 2017In the first half of 2017, the Ukrainian beer market goes on decreasing slowly. Yet, the companies manage to compensate their lost volumes by raising prices and improving the sales structures. This results in the mid price market segment reduction while the sales of premium brands are rising. These processes are connected to position strengthening of companies Carlsberg Group and Oasis and the market share reduction of Obolon. Most of the novelties by the market leaders belong to craft or hard lemon categories.
Beer market of Russia 2016: PET goes to draftThe beer market of Russia was warmed up by the hot summer, but the preparation for large volume PET prohibition has already impacted it negatively. The year was successful for Efes, MBC and regional producers; Carlsberg’s positions were virtually stable but AB InBev and Heineken lost a part of market share having focused on the sales profitability. The dynamics of big brands was determined by how much the companies were willing to keep the prices down or by their promotional activity. In this context the economy segment of the beer market and sales of inexpensive draft beer were increasing. The premium segment started shrinking due to license brands migrating to the mainstream segment.
Beer market of Vietnam: “Young tiger”Vietnam is one of the few big beer markets that continue to grow steadily. The beer popularity results from its low price, street consumption culture, and social motives. The outlooks of beer market as well as the Vietnamese economy inspire optimism, though the country is heavily dependent on export of goods. The state regulation can be called liberal, but the key risk for brewers is harbored in intensive rising of excise. Within TOP-4 there are two leaders, Sabeco and Heineken that grow at the fastest rates. The first company effectively employs its capacities, the second one focuses on marketing technologies. Almost 80% of the market belongs to century-old brands, yet the middle class and the youth are shifting their interest toward international premium that is growing taking share from the mainstream.
Competition bubbles as Vietnam sells state brewers
Vietnam ranks 11th in the world for beer consumption, according to 2014 data compiled by leading Japanese brewer Kirin Brewery. In Asia, it is the third-largest imbiber after China and Japan, which place first and seventh, respectively, in the world.
Beer consumption in Vietnam increased 6% in 2014 from the previous year, the largest gain among high-ranked nations, Kirin said.
Demand for beer is expected to continue growing in the country in light of population increases and the emergence of the middle class.
Tapping the keg
The Vietnamese government has an 89.6% stake in Saigon Beer Alcohol Beverage and an 82% stake in Hanoi Beer Alcohol Beverage. Together, the two companies account for around 60% of market share in the country. As part of its reform of state-run enterprises, the government will sell a 53.6% stake in Saigon Beer this year and the remaining 36% stake in 2017. It will sell its entire interest in Hanoi Beer by the end of this year.
Kirin and two other major Japanese brewers, Asahi Group Holdings and Sapporo Breweries, are looking to acquire both Vietnamese companies.
Sapporo began operating a brewery on its own in Vietnam in 2011 and has since been selling its high-end Sapporo Premium beer. It put a lower-priced product, called Blue Cap, on the local market earlier this year.
But as Sapporo has yet to capture a major share of the Vietnamese market, it hopes to acquire stakes in Saigon Beer and Hanoi Beer in order to boost sales. Sapporo President Tsutomu Kamijo is considering ways to get involved in management of the two Vietnamese brewers, including proposing joint ventures and offering entry into the Sapporo group.
Kirin Holdings, which acquired the largest brewer in Myanmar last year, is looking to expand operations in Southeast Asia, while Asahi hopes to catch up with Kirin in international operations through the Vietnamese stakes.
The three Japanese brewers "should be evaluated for their strategy of capitalizing on the growth of the Vietnamese market," an analyst said.
Suntory Holdings, another leading Japanese brewer, maintains a cautious stance on the Vietnamese market as it is busy integrating operations with Beam, the American spirits maker it acquired in 2014.
The cost of acquiring the Vietnamese brewers, however, stands as an obstacle. Stakes in the two local brewers are expected to cost some 200 billion yen ($1.86 billion).
Sapporo has made two large acquisitions to date, spending some 30 billion yen each to take over Canadian brewer Sleeman Breweries in 2006 and Japanese beverage maker Pokka in 2011.
Asahi acquired four European brewers, including Italy's Peroni Brewery, for around 290 billion yen. It is also considering a plan to spend more than 500 billion yen on the acquisition of five Eastern European brewers.
Kirin is shifting its priority to the rehabilitation of unprofitable units, including the domestic soft drink business and operations in Brazil.
The Vietnamese stakes look to be a high hurdle for Japanese brewers because of acquisition costs and each company's current strategies and financial condition. But one idea floated is to team up and form a consortium.
While Danish brewer Carlsberg has an interest of nearly 20% in Hanoi Beer, Anheuser-Bush InBev of Belgium, the world's largest brewer, is also interested in placing the two Vietnamese companies under its wing.
Vietnam's beer market is looking bubbly indeed.
15 Nov. 2016