Dmitry Nekrasov’s Philosophy — on the Past, Present and Future of Ukrainian Brewing IndustryA meeting with Dmitry Nekrasov always turns into a training course: “Introduction to brewing business“. We are talking to a clever “playing trainer“ a person that can be called a godfather of the Ukrainian craft. He has a dozen of successful projects to his name. Dmitry told us about craft beer in Ukraine, on market cycles, on specifity of operating in retail and HoReCa, on union of Ukrainian brewers and certainly, how a brewery of his own, First Dnipro Brewery is doing.
The market of import beer in Russia: review and databasesThe market of import beer is rapidly growing and changing. But while in the past years it was growing due to brands variety, in 2019 major and affordable brands from TOP-10 were developing actively. It seems that the fact of a brand origin from far abroad counties, even if it is not well known but has moderate price and good distribution provides for million liters of sales in the territory of Russia. Among distributors AB InBev Efes was far behind, yet the role of Baltika and suppliers of the second row got more important. The boom of German brands was followed by stagnation of import from other traditional regions (and Belarus) instead the supplies from Mexico, Lithuania and Asian countries grew considerably.
Russia: Positions of Brewing CompaniesThe review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.
Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brandsIn 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.
Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.
The trend of complication of Russian beer market is going on and in several directions at the same time. The range has got wider, the import and small segments are growing, namely craft beer, alcohol-free beer and special flavor beer. At the same time, all ex-mega brands and light lagers by Russian brewers are experiencing a decline of their shares. AB InBev Efes, Heineken, MBC and Pivzavod Trekhsosenskiy have exceeded the market, Carlsberg was developing slower than the market and Ochakovo as well as some other mid-sized breweries have been cutting down their volumes. To a big extent brewers’ performance was connected to their ability to reach agreement with networks, sacrifice their margin and enter new markets. Craft brewers are facing a serious danger of producers’ registration introduction – de facto licensing. ...
UK Beer Sales in the Three Months to the End of September 2010 Registered Their Fastest Fall Yet
•2011 per capita food consumption =+t1.5%; forecast to 2015 = +12.6%
•2011 alcoholic drink sales = +1.7%; forecast to 2015 = +12.7%
•2011 soft drink sales = +4% ; forecast to 2015 = +27.9%
•2011 mass grocery retail sales = +2.4%; forecast to 2015 = +20.4%
Key Industry Trends & Developments
UK Beer Sales Continue to Decline Figures from the British Beer & Pub Association (BBPA) suggest that UK beer sales in the three months to the end of September 2010 registered their fastest fall since the group began collating figures in 1997. The BBPA suggests that volume sales in the period fell by around 10% year-on-year (y-o-y), with sales through retailers (the off-trade) falling by 12% and sales through pubs and bars (the on-trade) falling by 8%. The fall represents a continuation of the long-term trend, but is likely to have been magnified by consumers reducing consumption in the aftermath of the FIFA World Cup.
Discount Sector No Longer Set for Record Beating Growth
Recent developments in the UK retail market have signalled that a widespread shift towards the discount sector in this market now looks unlikely to materialise in the medium term. Germany-based discounter Aldi has scrapped plans to build a new 600,000 square foot distribution centre on the Isle of Sheppey and also revealed in a filing with Companies House that its sales in 2009 increased by only 1.6% to GBP2.04bn, despite increasing its number of stores by 45. This comes after international discounter Netto announced a deal to sell its 193 stores in the UK to Asda, stating that it intended to focus on its operations in Scandinavia and Northern Europe
Key Risk to Outlook Return to recession
With the economic recovery still very weak, the government's plans for significant fiscal retrenchment combined with weak demand in the eurozone could be sufficient to tip the UK economy back into recession. Given that fiscal stimulus has been a key factor keeping the economy afloat during the global downturn, normalising the budget now could have a more detrimental impact on growth than we currently anticipate and as such, this remains a downside risk to our consumption forecasts. Eurozone debt crisis On the external front, the ongoing eurozone crisis poses a particular threat to investor confidence towards the UK. The risk of a major sovereign credit event on the continent would further damage confidence and put significant pressure on export demand and hence economic growth and consumption.
29 Янв. 2011