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3-2019

Russia: Positions of Brewing Companies

The review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.

Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brands

In 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.

Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019

During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.

Modelo, Molson eyeing joint Foster’s bid -source

* Molson, Modelo weigh joint bid for Foster's - source
* Banks including BoFA, Deutsche helping w/ financing
* Foster's ADRS up 5.5 pct; Molson shares down 3 pct (Adds company background, details on potential bidders, analyst comment, Molson Coors closing share price)

Molson Coors Brewing Co (TAP.N) and Mexico's Grupo Modelo SAB de CV (GMODELOC.MX) have been exploring a joint bid for Australia's Foster's Group Ltd (FGL.AX), a source familiar with the situation said on Thursday.

Banks including Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) and Deutsche Bank AG (DBKGn.DE) are helping the maker of Corona beer and the maker of Coors Light beer to come up with financing for a possible offer, said the source, who declined to be named because the talks are not public.

But a bid looks less likely than it did a few weeks ago because of concerns about the structure of the deal, according to Bloomberg, which first reported the news.

"A deal with this structure just doesn't feel right," said Morningstar analyst Philip Gorham. "I can see why Molson Coors is interested, but I don't believe the structure of the deal as it's been rumored really works."

Foster's, Australia's top beer maker with brands including VB and Cascade, has a market capitalization of A$8.31 billion ($8.81 billion), according to Thomson Reuters data. Gorham said he could see a deal being worth about $9 billion, which he guessed would be too much for Molson to swallow alone.

In late 2008, Molson emerged as a holder of a 5 percent stake in Foster's, leading to speculation that it could be a likely suitor once the company spun off its troubled wine unit. Molson has since unwound the position at a profit.

Foster's spun off the wine business, now called Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE.AX), last month.

After the split, the market valued Foster's and Treasury more than they had Foster's before the separation, suggesting that a takeover premium was being baked in to the shares.

Furthermore, analysts have warned that the soaring Aussie dollar could scare off potential bidders, whom they said could include Japan's Asahi Breweries Ltd (2502.T), Coca-Cola Amatil Ltd (CCL.AX) and SABMiller PLC (SAB.L). [ID:nL3E7GA01G]

Foster's, Modelo, Molson, SAB, AB InBev and Deutsche declined to comment. Coke Amatil, Asahi, and Bank of America were not immediately available.

CURIOUS BEDFELLOWS

For Molson Coors, which has a joint venture in the United States with SABMiller, teaming up with Modelo would "make life complicated," said Morningstar's Gorham, since the Mexican brewer is half-owned by Anheuser-Busch InBev SA. (ABI.BR)

"Molson would be torn between two large, influential players," he said. Still, he said the timing made sense for Molson, as it is nearly done wringing out savings from the MillerCoors venture, and Foster's dominance in Australia fits with Molson's business, which is concentrated in the United States, Canada and Britain.

Even though Modelo does not have experience with overseas acquisitions, it has many international partnerships through which it sells its Corona and Negra Modelo beers around the world. It works with Molson in Canada and Foster's in Australia.

Molson, which has been under pressure by Wall Street to spend some of its cash pile, also lacks a strong track record of international deal-making.

"Because of the nature of consolidation, you've got people that get into bed with each other whom you might not expect," said Tom Pirko, founder of consulting firm Bevmark LLC.

Pirko said it would be interesting to see if AB InBev moves to block any such deal by Modelo, since it is widely believed throughout the industry that AB InBev would like to buy Modelo outright, and its buying a stake in Foster's would make it more expensive.

"It looks like you block it so you can get Modelo," said Pirko. "But in point of fact, if you want to continue to be the biggest brewer in the world, maybe the logical step is to allow Modelo to go forward and then swallow Modelo and Foster's."

Foster's shares closed on Thursday at A$4.28 in Australia. Its American Depositary Receipts were up 5.5 percent at $4.80 on the Pink Sheets. Molson shares fell 3.1 percent to close at $44.36 on the New York Stock Exchange.

3 Июн. 2011

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