Dmitry Nekrasov’s Philosophy — on the Past, Present and Future of Ukrainian Brewing IndustryA meeting with Dmitry Nekrasov always turns into a training course: “Introduction to brewing business“. We are talking to a clever “playing trainer“ a person that can be called a godfather of the Ukrainian craft. He has a dozen of successful projects to his name. Dmitry told us about craft beer in Ukraine, on market cycles, on specifity of operating in retail and HoReCa, on union of Ukrainian brewers and certainly, how a brewery of his own, First Dnipro Brewery is doing.
The market of import beer in Russia: review and databasesThe market of import beer is rapidly growing and changing. But while in the past years it was growing due to brands variety, in 2019 major and affordable brands from TOP-10 were developing actively. It seems that the fact of a brand origin from far abroad counties, even if it is not well known but has moderate price and good distribution provides for million liters of sales in the territory of Russia. Among distributors AB InBev Efes was far behind, yet the role of Baltika and suppliers of the second row got more important. The boom of German brands was followed by stagnation of import from other traditional regions (and Belarus) instead the supplies from Mexico, Lithuania and Asian countries grew considerably.
Russia: Positions of Brewing CompaniesThe review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.
Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brandsIn 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.
Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.
The trend of complication of Russian beer market is going on and in several directions at the same time. The range has got wider, the import and small segments are growing, namely craft beer, alcohol-free beer and special flavor beer. At the same time, all ex-mega brands and light lagers by Russian brewers are experiencing a decline of their shares. AB InBev Efes, Heineken, MBC and Pivzavod Trekhsosenskiy have exceeded the market, Carlsberg was developing slower than the market and Ochakovo as well as some other mid-sized breweries have been cutting down their volumes. To a big extent brewers’ performance was connected to their ability to reach agreement with networks, sacrifice their margin and enter new markets. Craft brewers are facing a serious danger of producers’ registration introduction – de facto licensing. ...
Australia. Small brewers feel threat from Foster’s takeover bid
South African brewer SABMiller has offered $9.5 billion for Foster's Group, or $4.90 a share.
Foster's promptly rejected the offer as inadequate, and its share price soared 13.5 per cent, or $0.61, to $5.14 yesterday.
Foster's Group is the market leader in beer sales in Australia - Victoria Bitter is its most popular brand.
However, it has become a takeover target since it split from its troubled wine business last month amid mergers in the global brewing industry.
SABMiller chief executive Graham Mackay told a teleconference in London that he thought Foster's was a good buy.
"We believe that Foster's represents an attractive opportunity to acquire a leading brewer in a stable and profitable beer market," he said.
"However for a number of reasons the company has lost market share, has been underperforming for some years and continues to do so," he said.
He said SABMiller believed it could turn Foster's around because of its global reach.
SABMiller's beers include the premium brand, Peroni.
Analyst Greg Fraser from Fat Prophets thinks the bid is too low and SABMiller could raise the offer.
"It certainly looks as though SABMiller are testing the waters to see just what will be required to take Foster's off the hands of its current shareholders."
"It's probably right for Foster's board to initially reject the first offer at $4.90 per share - it does look a little opportunistic," he said.
But Peter Esho from stockbroker City Index thinks the SABMiller takeover bid is good value for Foster's shareholders because the company has been underperforming in a difficult retail market.
"If you're holding Foster's shares and you've been in them for awhile this news is a some type of a relief," he explained.
"Foster's is an icon that hasn't really gone anywhere."
He says the company's past decision to merge its beer and wine assets did not work.
"Foster's unfortunately have fallen behind of some of its brands," he added.
"So there really needs to be a commitment by somebody to come in and do all the hard work and make the numbers stack up."
If SABMiller does eventually win control of Foster's, Australia's two biggest brewers will be owned by foreign companies.
The number two beer maker, Lion Nathan which makes Tooheys and XXXX, is owned by Japanese brewer Kirin.
South Australia's Coopers Brewery would be the biggest Australian-owned brewer if a takeover of Foster's went ahead - it is still a family company.
Retail analyst Peter Ryan believes smaller brewers will also become takeover targets.
"There is a trend towards boutique brands of beer, those brands which are either organic or they have a quality element to the product," he said.
"Eventually if they get to a level where it makes sense for somebody to be able to see a return on their investment, equity will follow that and try and pump it up."
Scott Douglas runs Fusion Brewing, which makes boutique brands aimed at cafes and restaurants.
He thinks some small beer makers will go out of business if a global player takes over Foster's, because they will not be able to get shelf space in bottle shops or supermarkets.
"Just when the consumer's been educated and now starting to buy beers on taste and now get a new appreciation for beer, instead of just volume like the old days, the little guys will start going under again," he said.
However, Peter Esho thinks there will be more competition in the market not less if the takeover goes ahead.
"I think there will definitely more choice for consumers and perhaps international labels that are imported now might become a little bit cheaper if SABMiller takes over Foster's," he said.
Brewers say heavy discounting by supermarkets has harmed their sales.
Earlier in the year, Foster's withdrew some of its brands from Coles and Woolworths because the supermarket giants were selling beer below cost.
Scott Douglas thinks a takeover of Foster's will cause another price war and push out smaller brewers.
"Once they have forced out the smaller competition, then I think prices will go up," he said.
SABMiller and Coca-Cola Amatil co-own Pacific Beverages, which owns Bluetongue Brewery, and currently imports SABMiller brands such as Peroni and Pilsner Urquell.
SABMiller plans to buy out Coca-Cola Amatil's share of the business if it succeeds in its Foster's takeover.
22 Июн. 2011