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3-2019

Russia: Positions of Brewing Companies

The review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.

Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brands

In 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.

Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019

During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.

SABMiller Discipline Tested by Foster Bid

In building SABMiller Plc (SAB) from Africa’s biggest brewer to the world’s second-largest by volume, Chief Executive Officer Graham Mackay has earned a reputation for not paying too much for purchases. His desire to snare Foster’s Group Ltd. (FGL) will test that discipline.

SABMiller said yesterday it will continue to pursue Australia’s biggest brewer after Foster’s rejected a A$9.5 billion ($10 billion) offer at A$4.90 a share. London-based SABMiller may have to raise its offer by 8.2 percent to A$5.30 a share to secure a friendly takeover, according to the median estimate of seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

“They have a management ethos of not overpaying for an asset,” said Samar Chand, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London. “SABMiller will make another bid, but it won’t be a step-change increase from where we are now.”

Mackay has made more than two dozen acquisitions since he moved the company’s listing to London in 1999, though he’s passed on many of the industry’s biggest deals since 2008. He shunned buying the beer unit of Fomento Economico Mexicano SAB last year after rival Heineken NV (HEIA) paid up a price it deemed too high. Foster’s, the most profitable independent major brewer, would be his biggest purchase yet and add about half the Australian beer market to SABMiller’s portfolio.

“We expect SABMiller to return with a higher bid, though question whether it can meet our view of the board’s expectations,” said Andy Bowley, an analyst at Citigroup Inc., who estimated that Foster’s board wants an offer of A$5.40 to A$5.50 a share. He has a “hold” rating on Foster’s.

Stock Decline
Foster’s shares rose about 14 percent to A$5.14, the most in 25 years, yesterday. SABMiller’s shares slid 79 pence, or 3.6 percent, to 2,103 pence in London trading, the biggest decline since Jan. 19. SABMiller stock has risen almost fivefold since the listed in London at 428 pence a share in 1999. Heineken shares have gained about 35 percent in that period.

The offer for Foster’s “is expensive already,” said Gerard Rijk, an analyst at ING Groep in Amsterdam. “You only have to look at the SABMiller share price to know that.”

SABMiller’s offer for Foster’s, which last month split off its wine business, values the company at about 11.8 times the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization reported by the beer division last year. Nomura estimates that the average multiple for key transactions in the beer industry in the past five years was an enterprise value of 13 times earnings.

Emerging Markets
The bid “is the first step, and then they will start talks” with the Foster’s board, said Rijk. In past brewing transactions where the bidder’s first proposal was rejected, offers were accepted at about 10 to 15 percent higher than the original bid, he said. InBev NV raised its 2008 bid for Anheuser-Busch Cos. to $70 from $65 before gaining control of the Budweiser maker.

SABMiller has a higher exposure to emerging markets than most rivals and is therefore considered to have less to lose by increasing its exposure to developed markets. The percentage of earnings from markets outside the U.S. and western Europe would drop to about 70 percent after buying Foster’s from more than 80 percent now, Deutsche Bank AG analyst Jonathan Fell estimated.

“SABMiller, or another potential suitor, will need to offer above A$5 per share for the Foster’s board to recommend a bid to shareholders,” Nomura analysts including David Cooke said in a note to investors yesterday. Nomura estimates A$5.10 is fair value for the company and that potential buyers “could find it difficult to bid much further above A$5.10 per share given the subdued growth returns profile” of Foster’s.

Profit Margins
An acquisition may boost SABMiller’s profit margins. Foster’s beer business had an operating margin of about 38 percent in the 2010 fiscal year, the company said in a presentation to investors in February. That compares with SABMiller’s profit margin of 22 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

SABMiller said the proposed takeover will be funded from existing resources and new debt facilities. The brewer plans to fund the bid with about $10 billion of debt, according to two people with direct knowledge of the situation. The company’s net debt to Ebitda ratio would increase to 3.6 times from 1.3 times, according to estimates by Ian Shackleton, an analyst at Nomura in London.

Acquiring Foster’s would give SABMiller access to a “resilient” economy in Australia, with increasing disposable income, CEO Mackay said yesterday. The company has a “sound understanding” of the Australian market, he said, and can improve revenue growth by selling more higher-priced beer.

The bid may spark a takeover battle for Foster’s. Japan’s Asahi Breweries Ltd. and Mexico’s Grupo Modelo SAB de CV are among rivals that may make offers, according to analysts. SABMiller may have to raise its bid by about 13 percent based on the price paid by Kirin Holdings Co. for Lion Nathan Ltd., Australia’s second-largest brewer, in 2009, said Dirk Van Vlaanderen, an analyst at Jefferies International in London.

“We expect SABMiller to return with a better offer given that the first offer, whilst looking to be reasonable on valuation, is by no means punchy,” Shore Capital analysts said in a note.

22 Июн. 2011

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