Dmitry Nekrasov’s Philosophy — on the Past, Present and Future of Ukrainian Brewing IndustryA meeting with Dmitry Nekrasov always turns into a training course: “Introduction to brewing business“. We are talking to a clever “playing trainer“ a person that can be called a godfather of the Ukrainian craft. He has a dozen of successful projects to his name. Dmitry told us about craft beer in Ukraine, on market cycles, on specifity of operating in retail and HoReCa, on union of Ukrainian brewers and certainly, how a brewery of his own, First Dnipro Brewery is doing.
The market of import beer in Russia: review and databasesThe market of import beer is rapidly growing and changing. But while in the past years it was growing due to brands variety, in 2019 major and affordable brands from TOP-10 were developing actively. It seems that the fact of a brand origin from far abroad counties, even if it is not well known but has moderate price and good distribution provides for million liters of sales in the territory of Russia. Among distributors AB InBev Efes was far behind, yet the role of Baltika and suppliers of the second row got more important. The boom of German brands was followed by stagnation of import from other traditional regions (and Belarus) instead the supplies from Mexico, Lithuania and Asian countries grew considerably.
Russia: Positions of Brewing CompaniesThe review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.
Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brandsIn 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.
Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.
The trend of complication of Russian beer market is going on and in several directions at the same time. The range has got wider, the import and small segments are growing, namely craft beer, alcohol-free beer and special flavor beer. At the same time, all ex-mega brands and light lagers by Russian brewers are experiencing a decline of their shares. AB InBev Efes, Heineken, MBC and Pivzavod Trekhsosenskiy have exceeded the market, Carlsberg was developing slower than the market and Ochakovo as well as some other mid-sized breweries have been cutting down their volumes. To a big extent brewers’ performance was connected to their ability to reach agreement with networks, sacrifice their margin and enter new markets. Craft brewers are facing a serious danger of producers’ registration introduction – de facto licensing. ...
Glass still half-empty for SABMiller’s move on beer market leader Foster’s
SABMiller needs to go higher to get Foster's talking, that's for sure.
But judging from the way SABMiller chief executive Graham Mackay's briefing went down on Tuesday night our time, there's not much appetite in the brewing behemoth's home market for a large increase.
Advertisement: Story continues below The analysts who attended the SABMiller briefing were polite, but sceptical, about the logic of a Foster's acquisition and that was reflected in a 3.6 per cent slide in SABMiller's share price, on a day when the London market rose 1.44 per cent.
Mackay partly set himself up for the reaction by basing his presentation around an assessment of Foster's and its home market that damned them with faint praise.
Australia was a fast-growing economy by Western standards that was hooked into the Asian boom (Foster's if acquired will be part of SABMiller's Asian division).
He said beer profit margins here were high and Foster's was the market leader.
But Mackay also noted that Australian beer consumption per capita had been falling for years - it had halved since the mid-'70s and was now back to levels seen in the late 1940s - and said beer's 44 per cent share of alcohol consumption in Australia was well below shares of 55 per cent in the US, 51 per cent in Canada and 49 per cent in Britain.
Beer had ''lost incremental drinkers and occasions'', he said, and on top of that, alcohol's overall share of Australian household spending has declined by about 40 per cent since 1981 to about 2 per cent, compared with 3.6 per cent in Britain.
Mackay said SABMiller believed alcohol's share of the Australian purse had stabilised, but he also acknowledged that Foster's was operating in a mature market.
This puts the deal Mackay wants to do at odds with SABMiller's core strategy of leveraging its revenue and profit growth by taking exposure to emerging regions and beer markets, such as China, where its Snow brand is the market leader.
In the briefing, Mackay edged his way around that logical redoubt by arguing that Foster's was underperforming.
The Australian group had ''sub-optimal'' brand positioning, including overlapping brands, and a ''mixed'' record on innovation, he said.
And while it had seven of the top 10 brands in the Australian market, it had not been able to develop them and had seen its market share decline from 54 per cent to 50.3 per cent between 2005-2006 and 2009-1010, albeit with 2 percentage points of that coming from the loss of the Boags stable to Lion Nathan.
He said SABMiller, five times as large, would deliver operational economies of scale, in purchasing, for example.
But the key was that his company would boost Foster's profits in a stagnant market by segmenting consumers, channels and occasions and tailoring the beers it offers to fit them.
In essence then, Mackay is arguing that he will do what Foster's own chief executive, John Pollaers, also aims to do - improve Foster's beer volumes faster than the market overall and reclaim market share.
In the briefing, analysts questioned the apparent mismatch between SABMiller's existing strategy of focusing on emerging markets that offer high beer volume growth with the mature market Foster's now operates in.
Mackay's answer, that even after a Foster's acquisition three quarters of SABMiller's profit would come from emerging markets, didn't address that issue and he acknowledged that even if his renovation of Foster's worked, Foster's would not build beer volumes as quickly as the group as a whole.
Analysts also asked whether SABMiller could boost Foster's profitability without destabilising what has been a very cosy pricing environment in this country.
Beer prices here have tended to outpace inflation. The reverse is the case in SABMiller's other markets and as one analyst put it, if it wants to boost Foster's market share, SABMiller might need to either price its beer more aggressively or spend more on marketing.
Either would squeeze profit margins and profits would only rise if the volume gains they produced outweighed the cost.
SABMiller needs to offer more to get Foster's onside and conduct confirmatory due diligence that among other things will determine how secure Foster's' Corona franchise is if control passes and that there is still room for a meeting of the minds.
The new market price of $5.20 is in earnings multiple terms in line with the price Kirin paid to own Lion Nathan outright in 2009 and SABMiller could pay a bit more and still get an earnings per share uplift because it trades on a higher earnings multiple.
SABMiller is also undervaluing Foster's recent win against the Australian Taxation Office over claims for tax on transactions in the '80s and '90s.
It doesn't load into the earnings multiple calculation because its not a sustained income boost, but Foster's will get back $256.7 million it paid the tax office after its court win, claim lost interest and be free to use $447.5 million of tax losses.
The total value windfall is about $750 million and in its takeover sums SABMiller has only recognised the first $256.7 million: room for a rise, then - but judging from London's reaction, not to around $6 as the Foster's camp wants.
23 Июн. 2011