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3-2019

Russia: Positions of Brewing Companies

The review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.

Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brands

In 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.

Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019

During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.

SABMiller play for Foster’s expected to drag on for months

SABMiller's bid for Foster's Group is expected to take months to resolve, in the absence of any other bidders emerging, as Foster's tries to get the world no.2 brewer to sweeten its $10 billion offer, investors and analysts said.

Foster's shares have jumped to trade 6 percent above SABMiller's offer, rejected on Tuesday, with investors betting that SABMiller may have to raise its original bid by at least 10 percent to seal the deal.

"SABMiller is the logical buyer," said John Grace, portfolio manager at Ausbil Dexia, which owns a 0.5 percent stake in Foster's, according to Thomson Reuters data.

"They've got intentions to grow their global market share and Foster's presents an attractive opportunity. They're trying to engage with the board to come to an agreement. So it's early days," he said.

Foster's is alluring for its 50 percent market share in Australia, where its Victoria Bitter, Pure Blonde and Cascade beers help it earn some of the best margins in the developed world.

Others own the Foster's brand offshore, including SABMiller, which owns the brand in India.

Brokers have speculated that SABMiller, which brews Peroni, Grolsch and Miller, would have to offer at least A$5.25 to draw Foster's into talk, and would have to pay at least A$5.40 to clinch the deal. Foster's shares last traded at A$5.19.

"They'll have to up the price a little bit," said a portfolio manager at a Sydney-based fund that owns Foster's shares, declining to speculate on what would be a fair price.

"The beer volume's been down. They're trying to turn it around. So you're buying at the bottom of the cycle. Why would you give it away?"
DISCIPLINED BUYER

SABMiller is seen as the only likely bidder, with others seen as too laden with debt to get involved. Key potential suitors have signalled they were not interested, including world no.3 brewer Heineken , Japan's Asahi Breweries and Denmark's Carlsberg (CARLb.CO).

SABMiller has got to know the Australian market through its Pacific Beverages joint venture with Coca-Cola Amatil , so it has a good view on the turnaround potential in the business.

It is known for its discipline on acquisitions, having last year walked away from bidding for Mexico's FEMSA, bought by Heineken in an all-share deal worth $7.6 billion, including net debt, which valued the maker of Dos Equis beer at 11.2 times trailing EBITDA.

At an enterprise value of A$11.2 billion, SABMiller's bid for Foster's is already at 11.8 times trailing EBITDA.

It has agreed to pay C-C Amatil up to A$380 million for its stake in the joint venture, if it is successful with its bid for Foster's, which it needs to factor into how much it would be willing to pay for Foster's.

24 Июн. 2011

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