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Grain values drop in latest CWB PRO for 2011-12
Feed barley
The barley price structure in 2011-12 will be set by exports available from the Black Sea region. Ukraine, the largest of the Black Sea exporters, will help cover demand from the Middle East this year, but is forecast to increase exports by only 800 thousand tonnes. Tight supplies in Europe and Canada will help prices remain firm until January, when new-crop barley supplies become available from Australia and Argentina, which are both forecast to have large barley crops. The world’s largest feed buyer, Saudi Arabia, is showing signs of tight barley supplies and is forecast to increase its feed barley demand moving into 2011-12. If this demand is realized it will help mitigate the downside price impact. Like the other return projections this month, barley is being impacted by the strong Canadian dollar.
Designated barley
The weather market in Europe has subsided and prices have made their inevitable corrections over the last month and a half. Prices decreased by $50 to $70 U.S. before levelling off when end users stepped in to take further coverage. Lower European production estimates and reduced planted area in North America have decreased the potential supply of malting-quality barley, keeping prices volatile over the last month. Now that harvest has begun in the Northern Hemisphere, the focus will switch from overall production size to quality results. New-crop malting barley supplies are highly dependent on harvest weather, and prices will remain volatile as we move into August and September. Prices are expected to remain firm until January when production in Australia and Argentina is expected to cause a decrease in values. The overall supply of malting-quality barley from these two countries is expected to be large, as Southern Hemisphere production typically has less quality risk than in the Northern Hemisphere.
1 Авг. 2011 |