The trend of complication of Russian beer market is going on and in several directions at the same time. The range has got wider, the import and small segments are growing, namely craft beer, alcohol-free beer and special flavor beer. At the same time, all ex-mega brands and light lagers by Russian brewers are experiencing a decline of their shares. AB InBev Efes, Heineken, MBC and Pivzavod Trekhsosenskiy have exceeded the market, Carlsberg was developing slower than the market and Ochakovo as well as some other mid-sized breweries have been cutting down their volumes. To a big extent brewers’ performance was connected to their ability to reach agreement with networks, sacrifice their margin and enter new markets. Craft brewers are facing a serious danger of producers’ registration introduction – de facto licensing. ...
The global outlooks of the legal market of cannabis are excellent. It is possible to simultaneously imagine dry law repeal and craft brewing boom but not in one but in several consumer categories. For alcohol is contained in liquids and cannabis derivatives can be in three physical forms.The value of legal market of cannabis and its products can reach 10% of the world beer market in five years, and in 2030-2040 even reach the same scope provided the current rates of legalization and development of market infrastructure remain at the same level. Cannabinoids are actively integrating into the food industry from chewing gum to beverages deforming the pharmaceutical and alcohol markets, they influence the trends of healthy lifestyle and beauty. ...
Beer market of Kazakhstan acquired both traits of East European countries and South Eastern Asia taking a transitional position between them by many criteria and consumption style. Yet there is a positive trend in beer production which differs Kazakhstan from most of the neighboring countries. The market has remained consolidated in the hands of two international players because of its small size. However, it faces dynamic processes such as fast growth of draft beer sales, up and downs of regional companies and Carlsberg Group’s ultimate expansion. Excessive mainstream segment has declined over the recent years, yet, Zhigulevskoe and national brands with regional links have yielded their positions to a range of new products. In our review special attention was paid to regional analysis of the markets. In 14 regions of Kazakhstan we compared the companies’ positions, the market price segmentation and DIOT channel development. Besides we have compared the beer market of Kazakhstan to neighboring countries. ...
In Beer Deals, the Pause That Refreshes
SABMiller’s $10.5 billion takeover offer in June sent Foster’s Group Ltd. shares surging, as eager investors in the Australian brewer waited for a higher offer or a white knight. Neither has materialized. Foster’s shares, which reached 5.23 Australian dollars (US$5.78 at current rates) on June 22, have fallen back to A$5.05, hitting a post-offer low of A$4.98 on Friday and edging back to the A$4.90 a share bid price.
Industry observers now say that a big new bid is unlikely. Other suitors are too small or too busy on other projects, they say. Meanwhile, Foster’s has vigorously defended its independence, while SABMiller may have good reason to wait before springing its next move.
Some analysts also say Foster’s presents a challenge for potential suitors, as any effort to turn around years of slow growth in its home market could eat into its profit margins.
“We believe there will be no competing bids based on our assessment of global brewer balance sheets,” said Credit Suisse analysts in a research note.
Foster’s continues to insist the SABMiller bid is too low. On Friday, Chief Executive John Pollaers said there had been no engagement with SABMiller since the approach was made. SABMiller has said it will continue to seek talks with Foster’s.
Australian brewer Foster’s is trying to fend off a takeover attempt. The number of potential bidders in the brewing world isn’t big. Credit Suisse says that among the few that could fund a deal are Grupo Modelo of Mexico and the world’s biggest brewer by volume, Anheuser-Busch InBev.
But they are unlikely to bid due to competitive issues, an interest in other targets or a focus on bulking up in emerging markets.
In Japan, Asahi Group Holdings Ltd. has growth ambitions and an existing tie-up with Foster’s to market Asahi’s flagship beer in Australia. But its market capitalization is roughly equal to Foster’s, and a Tokyo-based banker says most Japanese lenders would not be willing to fund such a large acquisition. Also, Japanese accounting rules mean that Asahi would have to amortize a large amount of goodwill swiftly, making the deal less attractive.
Asahi is already seeking a stake or a controlling position in smaller New Zealand-headquartered Independent Liquor Ltd. instead. It has already submitted a competing bid against Japanese rival Suntory Holdings Ltd., and final bids are due Thursday, said a person familiar with the matter.
If no competitor emerges, SABMiller may wait until Foster’s full year results are unveiled on Aug. 23 before reviewing its offer so that it can get more detail on its target. “We believe SABMiller is in this fight for the long haul and is strongly motivated to make this deal happen,” said David Thomas, an analyst at broker CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets in a note.
Many analysts expect SABMiller to eventually raise its offer after Foster’s results are released, but only marginally. At about 12 times Foster’s prospective full year core earnings, SABMiller’s offer is roughly in line with past brewery deals, according to analysts. The average brewery deal has historically been struck at about 11 times core earnings, they said.
If a deal does happen, Citigroup analysts question how SABMiller will maintain the profit margin at Foster’s beer business while reinvigorating growth. The Australian beer market has been roughly flat in terms of volume for nearly a decade, but Citi cites a roughly 40% operating margin at Foster’s Carlton United Brewers due in part to less competition.
Foster’s and the No.2 brewer in the market, Lion Nathan, have raised beer prices above inflation for 15 of the last 17 years. But in recent months beer sales volumes have slipped and supermarkets have been slashing prices.
UBS analyst Naomi Takagi says Foster’s has been losing market share in recent years and to defend itself has cut wholesale prices of premium brands. A spokesman for Foster’s said its wholesale price agreements with customers are confidential.
Takagi says if SABMiller wins control of Foster’s the buyer is more likely to work on building brands by careful targeting of customers rather than heavily discounting products to achieve growth. “If SABMiller enters the market, the focus should shift from price to brand,” said Takagi.
And that means Australians may see an end cheaper beer prices if SABMiller wins Foster’s.
2 Авг. 2011