Dmitry Nekrasov’s Philosophy — on the Past, Present and Future of Ukrainian Brewing IndustryA meeting with Dmitry Nekrasov always turns into a training course: “Introduction to brewing business“. We are talking to a clever “playing trainer“ a person that can be called a godfather of the Ukrainian craft. He has a dozen of successful projects to his name. Dmitry told us about craft beer in Ukraine, on market cycles, on specifity of operating in retail and HoReCa, on union of Ukrainian brewers and certainly, how a brewery of his own, First Dnipro Brewery is doing.
The market of import beer in Russia: review and databasesThe market of import beer is rapidly growing and changing. But while in the past years it was growing due to brands variety, in 2019 major and affordable brands from TOP-10 were developing actively. It seems that the fact of a brand origin from far abroad counties, even if it is not well known but has moderate price and good distribution provides for million liters of sales in the territory of Russia. Among distributors AB InBev Efes was far behind, yet the role of Baltika and suppliers of the second row got more important. The boom of German brands was followed by stagnation of import from other traditional regions (and Belarus) instead the supplies from Mexico, Lithuania and Asian countries grew considerably.
Russia: Positions of Brewing CompaniesThe review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.
Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brandsIn 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.
Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.
The trend of complication of Russian beer market is going on and in several directions at the same time. The range has got wider, the import and small segments are growing, namely craft beer, alcohol-free beer and special flavor beer. At the same time, all ex-mega brands and light lagers by Russian brewers are experiencing a decline of their shares. AB InBev Efes, Heineken, MBC and Pivzavod Trekhsosenskiy have exceeded the market, Carlsberg was developing slower than the market and Ochakovo as well as some other mid-sized breweries have been cutting down their volumes. To a big extent brewers’ performance was connected to their ability to reach agreement with networks, sacrifice their margin and enter new markets. Craft brewers are facing a serious danger of producers’ registration introduction – de facto licensing. ...
Foster’s CEO Spurning SABMiller Remains Open to ‘Sensible’ Takeover Talks
“We are open to conversation with any sensible bid and our shareholders understand that,” Chief Executive Officer John Pollaers said in an interview with Bloomberg Television, without elaborating. “We’ve had support from our shareholders, in fact all of our shareholders, that it was the right thing.”
Foster’s, the world’s most profitable independent major brewer, will return at least A$500 million to investors as it resists SABMiller’s bid, which it has rejected as too low. Pollaers yesterday announced plans to cut costs by A$55 million and boost earnings at the maker of Australia’s Victoria Bitter.
“Pollaers is just trying to turn the heat back on SAB,” said Julian Chillingworth, who helps manage 16 billion pounds ($26.4 billion) including SABMiller shares at Rathbone Brothers Plc in London. “We’re into the holding pattern in a bid. If I were in SAB’s position, I wouldn’t force it along too much. If we have choppy markets, as we do, that plays well for SAB.”
An external spokesman for SABMiller, the world’s second- biggest brewer by volume, couldn’t comment on the CEO’s remarks.
The maker of Miller Lite and Grolsch took its cash offer directly to Foster’s stockholders on Aug. 17 after the Melbourne-based brewer rejected requests for “engagement” more than two months ago. SABMiller may have to raise the offer to A$5.20, according to the median estimate of 13 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News last week. That’s 10 Australian cents a share lower than estimated in a June survey.
Chillingworth said he expects SABMiller to raise the bid, though he wouldn’t want the bidder to pay more than 14 times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization. SABMiller said in June the offer valued Foster’s at about 12.5 times Ebitda, and stuck by that valuation last week.
Foster’s fell 0.6 percent to A$4.96 at the 4:10 p.m. close of Sydney trading, or 6 Australian cents above SABMiller’s A$4.90 a share offer. It gained 1.8 percent yesterday after announcing the potential capital return to shareholders. The stock has closed as high as A$5.21 a share since SABMiller’s first approach on June 21 before falling to as low as A$4.66.
“On the point of engagement -- we did engage and we said it significantly undervalues the business,” Pollaers said. “If we play the right long-term game and get it right in the short term, then the value is going to be there and it’s recognized by shareholders.”
The return to investors will be through a share buyback or capital reduction this financial year and may be increased depending on market conditions, he said. Foster’s in July said it will get A$390 million in cash refunds and interest after winning a dispute with the Australian Commissioner of Taxation.
SABMiller said it will cut its offer by any dividends paid out. Foster’s will pay a second-half dividend of 13.25 Australian cents. SAB shares rose 2.1 percent in London trading yesterday. They’re down about 7.5 percent this year.
Pollaers said he plans to use part of his new cost-savings program to increase advertising and promotion of brands, a strategy that helped stem market-share loss in the 12 months ended June. Foster’s share of the Australian beer market has fallen to less than 50 percent from about 55 percent in 2005, as consumers shifted to craft brews and pre-mixed spirit drinks. The slide has eased and the company is holding at the same level as a year ago, it said yesterday.
Foster’s is cutting 145 jobs, or about 2 percent of its total, according to Bloomberg data, and will review its “asset footprint,” including breweries and distribution network, which should be concluded within six months, the CEO said.
Foster’s is targeting “mid-single-digit” sales growth in the current year with earnings before interest and tax to rise faster than revenue, the company said, without providing a more specific forecast.
Pollaers has been CEO of Foster’s since it completed the spinoff of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd. in May, ending a 15-year involvement in wine that cost more than A$8 billion to build and resulted in about A$3 billion of writedowns.
The company’s A$89 million net loss reported yesterday included A$1.2 billion of charges related to the wine assets, including transaction costs and foreign currency reserves. Excluding items, profit for the year was A$495 million, compared with the A$494 million median estimate of three analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Earnings before interest and tax from Australian brewing fell 6.2 percent to A$847.8 million, the company said.
Foster’s domestic beer operating profit margin, or earnings before interest and tax as a proportion of sales, fell to 38 percent compared with 38.7 percent a year earlier. That’s higher than the 30.8 percent at Anheuser-Busch InBev NV, the world’s biggest brewer, in the year ended December, and the 23.5 percent of SABMiller in the year ended March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Pollaers is betting that spending more on promoting brands and cutting production costs will revive growth.
“I certainly didn’t join the group for it to be sold,” Pollaers told reporters on a conference call yesterday. “Our commitment is to turn this business around.”
24 Авг. 2011