Dmitry Nekrasov’s Philosophy — on the Past, Present and Future of Ukrainian Brewing IndustryA meeting with Dmitry Nekrasov always turns into a training course: “Introduction to brewing business“. We are talking to a clever “playing trainer“ a person that can be called a godfather of the Ukrainian craft. He has a dozen of successful projects to his name. Dmitry told us about craft beer in Ukraine, on market cycles, on specifity of operating in retail and HoReCa, on union of Ukrainian brewers and certainly, how a brewery of his own, First Dnipro Brewery is doing.
The market of import beer in Russia: review and databasesThe market of import beer is rapidly growing and changing. But while in the past years it was growing due to brands variety, in 2019 major and affordable brands from TOP-10 were developing actively. It seems that the fact of a brand origin from far abroad counties, even if it is not well known but has moderate price and good distribution provides for million liters of sales in the territory of Russia. Among distributors AB InBev Efes was far behind, yet the role of Baltika and suppliers of the second row got more important. The boom of German brands was followed by stagnation of import from other traditional regions (and Belarus) instead the supplies from Mexico, Lithuania and Asian countries grew considerably.
Russia: Positions of Brewing CompaniesThe review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.
Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brandsIn 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.
Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.
The trend of complication of Russian beer market is going on and in several directions at the same time. The range has got wider, the import and small segments are growing, namely craft beer, alcohol-free beer and special flavor beer. At the same time, all ex-mega brands and light lagers by Russian brewers are experiencing a decline of their shares. AB InBev Efes, Heineken, MBC and Pivzavod Trekhsosenskiy have exceeded the market, Carlsberg was developing slower than the market and Ochakovo as well as some other mid-sized breweries have been cutting down their volumes. To a big extent brewers’ performance was connected to their ability to reach agreement with networks, sacrifice their margin and enter new markets. Craft brewers are facing a serious danger of producers’ registration introduction – de facto licensing. ...
Nigeria’s huge beer market offers opening for more investments
Before now, two traditional big players in the Nigerian brewing sector, Nigerian Breweries Plc and Guinness Nigeria Plc, had been engaged in stiff competition for control of the nation’s beer market.
SABMiller, a global brewing giant with headquarters in South Africa has recently joined the fray.
The battle for market dominance in Nigeria ’s robust beer market was kick-off by the entry of SABMiller of South Africa in 2009.
A report from Imara, a pan-African financial services group, reveals why the beer industry giants, local and international, are at war over who controls this important liquor market.
The beer market is growing by about 7 per cent in volume terms a year, yet consumption per capita remains low in comparison to many international markets, suggesting continued growth is in prospect, says the Imara report.
Figures from the Imara report indicate the market growth potential for successful players in the country’s non-oil sector. According to the report, the Nigerian economy grew by an annualised 7.4 percent in the first quarter; the non-oil economy was the major driver, growing by 8.5 percent versus the 2.9 percent contribution from the oil economy. The report says first quarter sales at Nigerian Breweries are up 30 percent, while net profits have risen by 22.7 percent. For the three months to the end of March, Guinness announced a sales growth of 11.4 percent and a rise in net profit of 32 percent.
Analysts believe the latest revelations by Renaissance analysts on the nation’s attractive beer market will stimulate fresh robust competition in the sector, among the current three big players and possible new entrants who will want to have a piece of the action.
A series of ground -breaking research reports on African brewers, covering the markets of Nigeria , Zimbabwe , Kenya , Uganda , Tanzania , Rwanda , Burundi , East DRC, Southern Sudan and Ethiopia , shows that these African countries are huge markets for beer.
“The breweries sector in Sub-Saharan Africa is very attractive,” says Nothando Ndebele, Head of Research, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) at Renaissance Capital. “While per-capita consumption of alcohol is as high in SSA as in most developed markets, consumption of commercial beverages remains low relative to home-brewed alternatives. With rising income levels and increasing rates of urbanisation, we expect commercial beverages to continue gaining market share. This should support strong volume growth for the sector.”
Demand for beer in Nigeria and East Africa has traditionally been constrained by supply, according to the research. Analysts conclude that accelerating market growth – driven by the ongoing shift to commercially produced beverages – will be supported by increased investment by major local brewers.
Nigeria is the most attractive beer market in SSA, note Renaissance analysts, with the highest alcohol consumption per capita (mostly home-brewed) and the largest population of drinkers. The market – Africa’s largest (excluding South Africa ) – reached 18 mn hl in 2010, with consumption per capita of 11.6 litres. Analysts expect the Nigerian beer market to expand at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13 percent over the next 10 years.
Market leaders, Guinness Nigeria (rated BUY at Renaissance Capital, with a target price of N303/share) and Nigerian Breweries (rated HOLD, with a N97/share target price) have committed to substantially increased capital expenditure, with Guinness Nigeria upping capital spending five times on previous years. Competition has been relatively low so far, with supportive regulation, and Renaissance analysts expect this to continue. They see Guinness Nigeria as a more attractive investment than Nigerian Breweries, offering greater valuation upside and clearer expansion plans.
In the broadly defined East Africa region, beer consumption reached 18.6 million hectolitres in 2010, and increased at a CAGR of 12 percent over 2005-2010. Renaissance analysts expect this strong growth to continue, particularly in Uganda , Tanzania and Rwanda ; and initiate coverage of East Africa Breweries.
Excluding Kenya , competition in the East African countries is more intense than in other regions, such as West Africa , Renaissance says, noting that this has incentivised brewers to innovate, expanding their market through low-cost beers. Analysts see further upside to volume growth, driven by continued innovation in low-cost products and improvements in distribution.
29 Авг. 2011