Dmitry Nekrasov’s Philosophy — on the Past, Present and Future of Ukrainian Brewing IndustryA meeting with Dmitry Nekrasov always turns into a training course: “Introduction to brewing business“. We are talking to a clever “playing trainer“ a person that can be called a godfather of the Ukrainian craft. He has a dozen of successful projects to his name. Dmitry told us about craft beer in Ukraine, on market cycles, on specifity of operating in retail and HoReCa, on union of Ukrainian brewers and certainly, how a brewery of his own, First Dnipro Brewery is doing.
The market of import beer in Russia: review and databasesThe market of import beer is rapidly growing and changing. But while in the past years it was growing due to brands variety, in 2019 major and affordable brands from TOP-10 were developing actively. It seems that the fact of a brand origin from far abroad counties, even if it is not well known but has moderate price and good distribution provides for million liters of sales in the territory of Russia. Among distributors AB InBev Efes was far behind, yet the role of Baltika and suppliers of the second row got more important. The boom of German brands was followed by stagnation of import from other traditional regions (and Belarus) instead the supplies from Mexico, Lithuania and Asian countries grew considerably.
Russia: Positions of Brewing CompaniesThe review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.
Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brandsIn 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.
Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.
The trend of complication of Russian beer market is going on and in several directions at the same time. The range has got wider, the import and small segments are growing, namely craft beer, alcohol-free beer and special flavor beer. At the same time, all ex-mega brands and light lagers by Russian brewers are experiencing a decline of their shares. AB InBev Efes, Heineken, MBC and Pivzavod Trekhsosenskiy have exceeded the market, Carlsberg was developing slower than the market and Ochakovo as well as some other mid-sized breweries have been cutting down their volumes. To a big extent brewers’ performance was connected to their ability to reach agreement with networks, sacrifice their margin and enter new markets. Craft brewers are facing a serious danger of producers’ registration introduction – de facto licensing. ...
USA. Early harvest results raise concerns about malt barley supplies
Reports on the early barley harvest, indicating poor quality and low yields, have done little to ease those worries, according to Randy Brag from Valley Grain Services in Casselton, N.D.
"We've seen cases here in Cass County where yields have been as low as 10 bushels an acre to as high as 100 bushels," he said. "And then there are cases where the crop has been dug up because it wasn't worth combining. In the world of barley, this year?s crop is known as a 'mixed bag'."
He also noted that there are considerable disease problems in the eastern North Dakota and Minnesota barley crops, with vomitoxin levels as high as nine in North Dakota and an even higher 11 in areas east of the Red River.
Normally, maltsters reject any barley has that has a vomitoxin level higher than 1 to 1.5.
Brag also has a facility in Beulah, and noted that barley quality conditions in that area of the state are better than in the eastern regions. The vomitoxin levels are definitely lower and the yield figures he has heard range from 50 to 75 bushels per acre. But, the total acres in that area were down due to prevented plant.
"Due to the short supply problems, I think the maltsters are going to have to sit back and see how this all develops before making any decisions on what they are going to do as far as what they are going to accept on contract and what they are going to let go," he said.
Brag claimed the hot period in July was really hard on the barley and it seemed to impact most fields, regardless as to when it was planted. The surplus moisture conditions also have resulted in lower test weights with 41 to 46 pounds the average range.
As a result of the short barley crop this year, the mountain of barley stocks that has been holding prices down for the past two years has eroded away.
Brag predicts the maltsters will be offering some very attractive contracts to win back some of the acres to barley, which have slipped away to other crops over the past few years.
And those contracts should be coming out soon as early as the dates for Big Iron, in fact.
"We are looking at an incredibly small crop for North Dakota, which has always been number one in the nation in barley production," he said. "As a result the maltsters are going to be real aggressive in getting some acres contracted; they have to. I haven't seen anything like this in my lifetime.
"Maybe the downward movement of wheat, beans and corn in this market will encourage some people to plant barley."
On a cash basis, malting barley continues to show strength even though the other grains have trended lower with the recent economic news.
Brag has heard in some cases where local elevators are offering as much as
$7 a bushel for malting barley, which accounts for around a 50-cent bump in the last two weeks. Feed barley, has also shown a slight strengthening over the period with prices about a dime higher at $4.85 to $5.
Brag expects to see good prices for some time to come, both for feed and malting barley, citing good U.S. demand as a reason for prices to remain high.
"The maltsters are going to need barley. That is the message brewing industry wants to get out," he said. "They need barley acres. The question is what price will it take to get some of those acres back into barley production?"
5 Сен. 2011