Dmitry Nekrasov’s Philosophy — on the Past, Present and Future of Ukrainian Brewing IndustryA meeting with Dmitry Nekrasov always turns into a training course: “Introduction to brewing business“. We are talking to a clever “playing trainer“ a person that can be called a godfather of the Ukrainian craft. He has a dozen of successful projects to his name. Dmitry told us about craft beer in Ukraine, on market cycles, on specifity of operating in retail and HoReCa, on union of Ukrainian brewers and certainly, how a brewery of his own, First Dnipro Brewery is doing.
The market of import beer in Russia: review and databasesThe market of import beer is rapidly growing and changing. But while in the past years it was growing due to brands variety, in 2019 major and affordable brands from TOP-10 were developing actively. It seems that the fact of a brand origin from far abroad counties, even if it is not well known but has moderate price and good distribution provides for million liters of sales in the territory of Russia. Among distributors AB InBev Efes was far behind, yet the role of Baltika and suppliers of the second row got more important. The boom of German brands was followed by stagnation of import from other traditional regions (and Belarus) instead the supplies from Mexico, Lithuania and Asian countries grew considerably.
Russia: Positions of Brewing CompaniesThe review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.
Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brandsIn 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.
Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.
The trend of complication of Russian beer market is going on and in several directions at the same time. The range has got wider, the import and small segments are growing, namely craft beer, alcohol-free beer and special flavor beer. At the same time, all ex-mega brands and light lagers by Russian brewers are experiencing a decline of their shares. AB InBev Efes, Heineken, MBC and Pivzavod Trekhsosenskiy have exceeded the market, Carlsberg was developing slower than the market and Ochakovo as well as some other mid-sized breweries have been cutting down their volumes. To a big extent brewers’ performance was connected to their ability to reach agreement with networks, sacrifice their margin and enter new markets. Craft brewers are facing a serious danger of producers’ registration introduction – de facto licensing. ...
Malaysia. Costly beer next year?
The price of barley in particular, a key raw material for the brewer, is expected to rise by between 35 per cent and 40 per cent next year, managing director Soren Ravn said.
The industry also saw natural gas go up by 28 per cent and power tariffs by 8.3 per cent from May to July.
"With raw material prices continuing to go up, we're sitting on a bomb next year," he told reporters here yesterday after its roundtable dialogue on the challenges of doing business in a rising cost environment with other leaders of the food and beverage industry.
Brewers here last raised beer prices in May, by about 3 per cent, to reflect higher raw material costs.
"(Another price increase) seems to be likely next year with the way things are moving now. The only price increase we could imagine this year would be in the unlikely event that there'll be a duty increase," Ravn said.
He doesn't think there'll be a duty hike as he believes the government understands that the non-intended effects of a hike - like an increase in smuggled goods and the tendency by consumers to shift towards products with higher alcoholic content - causes the government to lose potential tax revenue.
A duty hike would also be "counter-productive" for the Economic Transformation Programme, which counts tourism as a key element to boost the country's competitiveness, he said.
Analyst Vincent Khoo, who is also head of research at UOB Kay Hian Research, said the probability of a hike is higher this year given that the industry was given a respite from any hikes in the last five years, but he tends to agree with Ravn that it is "unlikely" to happen.
"This is because duties here are already among the highest in the world and the government isn't likely to want to burden the people further (with high prices), especially as we near a general election. It won't help the tourism industry either," he told Business Times.
Brewers raise beer prices every time there is an excise duty hike. In the last few years, consumption of beer and stout in Malaysia has been on a decline due to the relatively high prices.
Ravn expects consumption to grow by a "low single-digit" percentage this year as compared to Singapore, which is expected to grow twice as fast.
The impact of the higher costs on Carlsberg's earnings this year will be minor as it has already done all its hedging on raw materials a year ago.
"This year, we feel comfortable to deliver according to our targets," Ravn said, adding that the company had yet to hedge for next year.
Meanwhile, he said the company would continue to focus more on the profitable and growing premium beer segment, which currently constitutes about a tenth of its revenue, but growing fast. It has over 20 premium brands which include Kronenbourg 1664, Asahi and Hoegaarden.
Deputy managing director Datuk Chin Voon Loong said brewers in Malaysia have put in a proposal for the government to at least maintain the current level of excise duty for beer, introduce a less complicated and fairer tax structure for alcoholic products, and keep alcohol import duty at current levels.
On the tax reform, Chin said the government has acknowledged that that the current system is complicated and has started looking into it. Any changes, however, won't happen so soon as it will be done on a transitional basis, he said.
7 Сен. 2011