Dmitry Nekrasov’s Philosophy — on the Past, Present and Future of Ukrainian Brewing IndustryA meeting with Dmitry Nekrasov always turns into a training course: “Introduction to brewing business“. We are talking to a clever “playing trainer“ a person that can be called a godfather of the Ukrainian craft. He has a dozen of successful projects to his name. Dmitry told us about craft beer in Ukraine, on market cycles, on specifity of operating in retail and HoReCa, on union of Ukrainian brewers and certainly, how a brewery of his own, First Dnipro Brewery is doing.
The market of import beer in Russia: review and databasesThe market of import beer is rapidly growing and changing. But while in the past years it was growing due to brands variety, in 2019 major and affordable brands from TOP-10 were developing actively. It seems that the fact of a brand origin from far abroad counties, even if it is not well known but has moderate price and good distribution provides for million liters of sales in the territory of Russia. Among distributors AB InBev Efes was far behind, yet the role of Baltika and suppliers of the second row got more important. The boom of German brands was followed by stagnation of import from other traditional regions (and Belarus) instead the supplies from Mexico, Lithuania and Asian countries grew considerably.
Russia: Positions of Brewing CompaniesThe review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.
Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brandsIn 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.
Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.
The trend of complication of Russian beer market is going on and in several directions at the same time. The range has got wider, the import and small segments are growing, namely craft beer, alcohol-free beer and special flavor beer. At the same time, all ex-mega brands and light lagers by Russian brewers are experiencing a decline of their shares. AB InBev Efes, Heineken, MBC and Pivzavod Trekhsosenskiy have exceeded the market, Carlsberg was developing slower than the market and Ochakovo as well as some other mid-sized breweries have been cutting down their volumes. To a big extent brewers’ performance was connected to their ability to reach agreement with networks, sacrifice their margin and enter new markets. Craft brewers are facing a serious danger of producers’ registration introduction – de facto licensing. ...
InBev may look at SABMiller
IN A global brewing industry marked by huge consolidation over the past decade, bankers are hopeful of an $80bn-plus deal to end all transactions between the industry’s two giants, Anheuser-Busch InBev and SABMiller.
If AB InBev buys SABMiller it could be the biggest cash takeover in history and would create a group brewing a third of the world’s beer. Analysts and bankers suggest 2013 as a likely time frame for a takeover that is seen as the final play in deal-making in big world brewing.
They say the world’s largest brewer, AB InBev, will not be deterred from making a move for SABMiller even after the second-largest brewer swallows up Australia’s Foster’s by the end of this year in a $10,2bn deal. A Foster’s deal may delay an AB InBev-SABMiller link-up by six to 12 months, pushing a possible deal to 2013, after AB InBev CE Carlos Brito said its debt would fall next year to levels that made further acquisitions possible.
A deal would close out a decade of rapid consolidation led largely by AB InBev and SABMiller and leave few remaining easy targets, with the remaining big global brewers such as Heineken and Carlsberg, as well as AB InBev, controlled by families, individuals or charity shareholders.
A deal would link AB InBev’s Budweiser, Stella Artois and Brahma beer brands with SABMiller’s Peroni, Miller Lite and Grolsch, and cause only major antitrust headaches in the US and China, which would force sell-offs in those markets. AB InBev swallowed Budweiser brewer Anheuser-Busch for $52bn in 2008 in the world’s biggest cash takeover.
"AB InBev has been built by a string of good merger and acquisition deals over the last decade, so the market is likely to support one final deal based on its impressive record," a banker says.
A potential tie-up would entail at least $13bn of disposals to get around antitrust issues in the US and China, but annual cost savings could top $1bn. Disposals would likely include the sale of SABMiller’s 58% stake in US brewer MillerCoors, probably to 42% co-owner Molson Coors, for about $9bn as MillerCoors’ near-30% US market share added to AB InBev’s 50% would be too much for US authorities.
A further move might be the sale of SABMiller’s 49% share in Chinese brewer CR Snow, to appease Chinese authorities as AB InBev already has a significant Chinese presence.
AB InBev’s ability to make deals pay is illustrated by its shares outperforming the DJ food and beverage index by about 45% since it sealed the Anheuser-Busch deal in late 2008, analysts say.
SABMiller’s two big shareholders include US cigarette maker Altria, which has a 27,1% stake as a legacy of SABMiller’s 2002 deal to buy Miller, and the Colombian Santo Domingo family with a 14,2% stake, which dates back to SABMiller’s deal to acquire South American brewer Bavaria in 2005.
27 Сен. 2011