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4-2017

Global hop market

A local alternative to mass beer suggested by independent brewers has been successful and is now altering the global market. Beer is becoming more diversified, so transnational companies have to accept the new game rules and to switch focus to young and fast growing markets. All these processes increased the demand for aroma and bitter hop as well as their acreage expansion on two continents. However now there appeared a downward trend of alcohol consumption in the world, so even special sorts can soon turn to be sufficient. In this connection the dynamic American hop market is already facing some problems. EU hop producers have become more cautious, they are not racing to exceed the demand and look forward with more confidence, judging by the contract terms. 

Hop Market in Russia

Germany still dominates the Russian market, yet over the recent two years one has been able observe a continuous success of Czech hop suppliers. Their expansion and growing popularity of hops from the United States became the drivers of supplies growth in 2016 despite the preceding modest harvest crop in the EU, as well as the factor of relative stability in 2017. In this connection, in 2017, the ratio of the varieties continued to shift towards the aroma ones, and the supplies of Magnum hop and other alpha varieties were reduced. However, the import of bitter hop pellets is partially replaced by extracts, especially from the major beer manufacturers. Total volumes of alpha acid supplies, according to our estimation, decreased by approximately 5% and returned to the level of 2015. Barth Haas Group continues dominating the hop products market; HVG also increased its weight. At the same time, Morris Hanbury significantly reduced the supplies in 2017.

Boston Beer Co. hit by higher price of barley

Q: Something bad has happened to my Boston Beer Co. shares, and I want to know if problems will continue.

— M.L.

A: The maker of Samuel Adams beer must contend with the higher cost of barley, a key ingredient in its brews, as well as competitive pressures.
While it is the leading producer in the highly fragmented U.S. craft brew industry, it accounts for less than 1 percent of the total U.S. beer market. Growth potential therefore is a major consideration for its stock.

But with most of its production and sales in the eastern U.S., its capital expenditures for significant expansion in the U.S. and abroad would be high. The dominant forces in the beer business remain MillerCoors and Anheuser-Busch InBev, which are introducing their own craft beers and acquiring other trendy brewers.

Shares of The Boston Beer Co. , which produces beer, flavored malt beverages and hard ciders, recently had been down 24 percent this year.

Profits rose 72 percent in the second quarter due mostly to a positive settlement with a former glass-bottle supplier. A decline in Sam Adams Light sales was partially offset by increases in its Twisted Tea, Boston Lager, Brewmaster's Collection and Seasonals products. Marketing, advertising and freight costs rose in the quarter.

Boston Beer reduced its full-year expectations and said it is "exploring opportunities for price increases" because of the higher cost of the barley crop.

Consensus analyst opinion on Boston Beer stock is "hold," according to Thomson Reuters, consisting of one "strong buy," one "buy," five "holds" and one "underperform."

Boston Beer was launched in the mid-1980s and taken public in 1995 by founder Jim Koch, who is featured in its commercials. Koch last year rolled out the Freshest Beer Program that reduces the lag between brewing and delivery to customers. The company's website notes that over the years he has resisted several offers for the company from large brewers.

Q: I would like your opinion of Legg Mason ClearBridge Appreciation Fund.

—V.M.

A: It is a classic core holding for a conservative investor's personal portfolio that offers diversified holdings and sustainable dividends. It can be expected to underperform during market rallies and outperform during downturns.

The $3.7 billion Legg Mason ClearBridge Appreciation "A" (SHAPX) recently had been down 2 percent over the previous 12 months to rank in the top 30 percent of large growth and value funds. It returned 3 percent over the previous 10 years.

"This fund is for someone who doesn't like risk or volatility," said Shannon Zimmerman, of Morningstar Inc. "It should be someone who doesn't mind not getting every percentage point of an up market, in exchange for not losing every percentage point in a down market."

The co-managers are Scott Glasser, who has been with the fund for a decade, and Michael Kagan, who joined it in 2009. Both manage other Legg Mason funds. The team keeps the portfolio diversified across sectors, favors strong company management and looks for firms whose earnings growth potential isn't reflected in stock price.

According to filings, Glasser has more than $1 million of his own money in the fund, thereby keeping interests of shareholders aligned with his own. Kagan has less than $50,000 in this fund but has more than $500,000 invested in other Legg Mason funds.

7 Окт. 2011

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