A brazilian magazin published the speculation of Analyst William Barros, that the high market value of the Brazilian market leader would provide an advantageous exchange ratio of shares, when buying or merging with British-African SABMiller Group. That is, because AmBev is much more valued at the Sao Paulo stock exchange, than the actual ABInbev, whose shares are traded in Europe. The high market value of Brazilian brewery would enable a relationship of friendly exchange of shares with SABMiller, whose shares are traded on the London Stock Exchange.
The market value of AmBev is currently around USD 83 billion, being about the market value of mother company AB InBev, which is traded on the Belgian stock exchange for about USD 85 billion. SABMiller is worth 33.4 billion pounds, or USD 51.4 billion. Ambev may also use USD 3.2 billion USD cash in the operation.
While AmBev’s shares trade at 18.6 times estimated profit for 2012, SABMiller shares equivalent to 13 times the expected result for the year. This would give an advantage to the Brazilian company in the negotiations.
One analyst believes, that the acquisition of SABMiller by ABInbev makes “perfect sense”, because the two breweries are complementary. There is only overlapping business in the U.S. and China. Antitrust authorities in these countries may impose restrictions, but that should not disable the operation as a whole .
This year, AmBev has become the darling of the market and is among the best performing roles in the Bovespa. Investors believe that the brewery is an active “defensive” in times of uncertainty. The price of beer keeps pace with inflation, even with a slowing economy, people do not stop consuming it.
This strong demand for shares of AmBev, however, created distortions in the market, which explains the fact that the brazilian brewery is worth as much as its Belgian parent company.