Dmitry Nekrasov’s Philosophy — on the Past, Present and Future of Ukrainian Brewing IndustryA meeting with Dmitry Nekrasov always turns into a training course: “Introduction to brewing business“. We are talking to a clever “playing trainer“ a person that can be called a godfather of the Ukrainian craft. He has a dozen of successful projects to his name. Dmitry told us about craft beer in Ukraine, on market cycles, on specifity of operating in retail and HoReCa, on union of Ukrainian brewers and certainly, how a brewery of his own, First Dnipro Brewery is doing.
The market of import beer in Russia: review and databasesThe market of import beer is rapidly growing and changing. But while in the past years it was growing due to brands variety, in 2019 major and affordable brands from TOP-10 were developing actively. It seems that the fact of a brand origin from far abroad counties, even if it is not well known but has moderate price and good distribution provides for million liters of sales in the territory of Russia. Among distributors AB InBev Efes was far behind, yet the role of Baltika and suppliers of the second row got more important. The boom of German brands was followed by stagnation of import from other traditional regions (and Belarus) instead the supplies from Mexico, Lithuania and Asian countries grew considerably.
Russia: Positions of Brewing CompaniesThe review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.
Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brandsIn 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.
Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.
The trend of complication of Russian beer market is going on and in several directions at the same time. The range has got wider, the import and small segments are growing, namely craft beer, alcohol-free beer and special flavor beer. At the same time, all ex-mega brands and light lagers by Russian brewers are experiencing a decline of their shares. AB InBev Efes, Heineken, MBC and Pivzavod Trekhsosenskiy have exceeded the market, Carlsberg was developing slower than the market and Ochakovo as well as some other mid-sized breweries have been cutting down their volumes. To a big extent brewers’ performance was connected to their ability to reach agreement with networks, sacrifice their margin and enter new markets. Craft brewers are facing a serious danger of producers’ registration introduction – de facto licensing. ...
Kirin Forecast Misses Estimates on Australia, Japan Declines
Net income may reach 48 billion yen ($618 million) in the 12 months ending Dec. 31, the Tokyo-based company said in a statement yesterday. That compares with the 62.5 billion yen average estimate of 16 analysts based on data compiled by Bloomberg.
Earnings from its Lion unit in Australia will miss budget as discounting by the nation’s biggest retailers stymies its ability to raise prices, higher ingredient costs curb profitability and stalling consumer demand cuts sales. Declines in the Japanese drinks market will result in revenue missing target and limiting the benefit of overseas acquisitions such as Brazil’s Schincariol Participacoes e Representacoes.
“We want to take a medium to long-term view for Lion,” President Senji Miyake told reporters in Tokyo yesterday.
Kirin expects 2012 earnings from Lion of A$96 million ($103 million), lower than the A$350 million target set in 2010, it said in a presentation on its website. Kirin owns Australia’s second-largest brewer and largest milk processor.
Lion’s management will focus on more profitable products, such as cheese and flavored drinks, to reduce the impact of plain milk discounting by retailers.
Kirin and rivals Sapporo Holdings Ltd. (2501) and Asahi Group Holdings Ltd. have expanded overseas to offset a slump in demand at home. Industrywide beer sales in Japan fell 3.7 percent to 442 million cases last year, the lowest level since records began in 1992.
Schincariol, San Miguel
Among other acquisitions last year, Kirin agreed to buy out shareholders in Schincariol Participacoes e Representacoes in November 2011. The deal at that time valued the Brazilian company at about $3.6 billion excluding debt, when combined with the initial purchase of a 50.45 percent stake.
The brewer increased its stake in Manila-based San Miguel Brewery Inc. (SMB) to 48 percent in 2009, bought a 14.7 percent of Singapore’s Fraser and Neave Ltd. (FNN) in 2010 and purchased a majority stake in Vietnam’s Interfood Shareholding Co. for an undisclosed sum in March 2011.
Kirin’s 2011 annual profit dropped 35 percent as the value of its Sydney-based Lion unit and investments declined. Net income fell to 7.4 billion yen in 2011 from 11.4 billion yen the previous year, the Tokyo-based company said yesterday.
Kirin’s rival Asahi Group Holdings Ltd., which spent at least $1.8 billion on acquisitions in 2011, yesterday forecast 2012 profit will rise 18 percent, in line with analyst estimates.
Asahi, Japan’s largest brewer by volume, said net income may climb to 65 billion yen ($837 million) in the 12 months ending Dec. 31 from 55.1 billion yen in 2011, according to a statement yesterday. The forecast compares with the 64.9 billion yen average of 15 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Kirin, Asahi and Sapporo were forced to temporarily shut factories after the March 11 earthquake in northern Japan. Beer shipments by the nation’s five biggest brewers plunged more than 8 percent in the months of March, May and June from a year earlier.
Sapporo forecast net income of 6.3 billion yen in 2012 and 7.4 billion yen in 2013, compared with the 7.95 billion yen mean estimate of five analysts for 2012 and 8.8 billion yen estimate for 2013.
The company posted 2011 net income of 3.2 billion yen, according to statement to Tokyo Stock Exchange.
Kirin’s shares rose 1.9 percent to 967 yen at the close in Tokyo yesterday before the earnings were released. Asahi climbed 0.8 percent to 1,731 yen, while Sapporo gained 0.7 percent to 294 yen.
14 Фев. 2012