Dmitry Nekrasov’s Philosophy — on the Past, Present and Future of Ukrainian Brewing IndustryA meeting with Dmitry Nekrasov always turns into a training course: “Introduction to brewing business“. We are talking to a clever “playing trainer“ a person that can be called a godfather of the Ukrainian craft. He has a dozen of successful projects to his name. Dmitry told us about craft beer in Ukraine, on market cycles, on specifity of operating in retail and HoReCa, on union of Ukrainian brewers and certainly, how a brewery of his own, First Dnipro Brewery is doing.
The market of import beer in Russia: review and databasesThe market of import beer is rapidly growing and changing. But while in the past years it was growing due to brands variety, in 2019 major and affordable brands from TOP-10 were developing actively. It seems that the fact of a brand origin from far abroad counties, even if it is not well known but has moderate price and good distribution provides for million liters of sales in the territory of Russia. Among distributors AB InBev Efes was far behind, yet the role of Baltika and suppliers of the second row got more important. The boom of German brands was followed by stagnation of import from other traditional regions (and Belarus) instead the supplies from Mexico, Lithuania and Asian countries grew considerably.
Russia: Positions of Brewing CompaniesThe review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.
Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brandsIn 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.
Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.
The trend of complication of Russian beer market is going on and in several directions at the same time. The range has got wider, the import and small segments are growing, namely craft beer, alcohol-free beer and special flavor beer. At the same time, all ex-mega brands and light lagers by Russian brewers are experiencing a decline of their shares. AB InBev Efes, Heineken, MBC and Pivzavod Trekhsosenskiy have exceeded the market, Carlsberg was developing slower than the market and Ochakovo as well as some other mid-sized breweries have been cutting down their volumes. To a big extent brewers’ performance was connected to their ability to reach agreement with networks, sacrifice their margin and enter new markets. Craft brewers are facing a serious danger of producers’ registration introduction – de facto licensing. ...
Heineken N.V. delivers solid top-line and earnings growth in 2011
- Top-line: Revenue grew 3.6% organically, driven by total consolidated volume growth of 2.1% and revenue per hectolitre growth of 1.5%. Group beer volume increased 3.6%, with growth in all regions driving global market share gains;
- Heineken®: Volume growth of the Heineken® brand in the international premium segment accelerated to 5.4%, once again outperforming the overall beer market;
- EBIT: Organic EBIT (beia) growth of 1.4% as higher revenues, cost savings and increased profit from joint ventures were partly offset by increased marketing expense, higher input costs and capability building investments;
- Net profit: Net profit (beia) grew 9.2% organically to €1,584 million, driven by higher EBIT (beia), lower interest expense and a lower effective tax rate (beia). Reported net profit declined 1.2%, following an exceptional capital gain in 2010;
- Total Cost Management (TCM): TCM delivered pre-tax savings of €178 million in 2011 and total savings of €614 million over the entire three year period; New €500 million cost saving programme (TCM2) launched covering 2012-14;
- Cost synergies: Achieved cost synergies of €94 million in 2011, relating to acquired beer operations of FEMSA, bringing cumulative savings to €136 million;
- Cash flow: Strong free operating cash flow generation of over €2 billion, resulting in a cash conversion ratio of 122%. Net debt/EBITDA (beia) ratio of 2.2x, in line with 2010, despite acquisition activity and accelerated completion of the ASDI share repurchase programme;
- Dividend: Proposed total dividend of €0.83 per share, representing an increase of 9% compared with 2010 (€0.76).
(in mhl or € million unless stated otherwise)
Full Year 2011
|Full Year 2010 (restated)2|
|Organic growth %|
|Group beer volume||213.9||192.3||11||3.6|
|Total consolidated volume||194.4||178.1||9.1||2.1|
|Of which: Consolidated beer volume||164.6||145.9||13||3.2|
|Heineken® volume in premium segment||27.4||26.0||5.4||5.4|
|Net profit (beia)||1,584||1,456||8.8||9.2|
|Free operating cash flow||2,093||1,993||5.0|
|Net debt/EBITDA (beia)3||2.2x||2.2x|
|Diluted EPS (beia) (in €)||2.70||2.58||4.7|
2 2010 restated figures as disclosed in the half year report dated 24 August 2011.
3 2011 includes the Galaxy Pub Estate on a 12 month pro-forma basis; 2010 includes the beer operations of FEMSA on a 12 month pro-forma basis.
CEO STATEMENT Jean-Fran?ois van Boxmeer, Chairman of the Executive Board and CEO, commented:
“At the start of 2011, we said that we would significantly increase investment in our brands and innovation to drive long-term value and volume growth. This strategy helped us to deliver organic volume and revenue growth across all five reporting regions for the year. We also grew the bottom-line organically in 2011, with 9.2% net profit (beia) growth.
Our successful activation of the Heineken® brand and investment in global priority brands such as Desperados and Strongbow Gold supported global share gains. Our innovation rate reached 4.1% at the end of 2011 and we are well on our way to achieving our goal of 6% by 2020.
The Heineken® brand continued to outperform the international premium segment and overall beer market, with particularly strong brand performances in Brazil, China, France, Nigeria and Vietnam. Heineken® was also launched in Mexico and India, two attractive growth markets.
2011 also saw the successful completion of our TCM programme. We have now launched TCM2, a new 3-year €500 million cost saving programme. Our free operating cash flow was strong in 2011, exceeding €2 billion, and this will remain a core focus area going forward.
In the year ahead, we will continue to invest in our brands and global business capabilities across the Company. We will also invest in emerging markets to maintain our growth momentum. In Europe, we will continue to leverage our leadership position through our value growth strategy.”
2012 FULL YEAR OUTLOOKIn 2012, HEINEKEN expects to benefit from continued positive growth momentum in higher growth economies and from revenue enhancing initiatives in developed markets. In addition, revenue development will continue to be supported by an ongoing shift towards higher growth economies in Africa, Latin America and Asia.
The Heineken® brand is expected to continue its strong performance in the international premium segment. The ‘Open Your World’ campaign will be activated around the world. HEINEKEN will also invest in the expansion of its other global brands - Desperados, Strongbow Gold and Amstel - with further planned introductions in new markets in 2012. In addition, Sol, our Mexican global priority brand, will be launched internationally from 2012. HEINEKEN expects marketing and selling (beia) expense as a percentage of revenue to remain broadly in line with 2011 (12.8%).
HEINEKEN anticipates an approximate 6% increase in input costs per hectolitre, primarily reflecting higher pricing for malted barley. The Company expects to mitigate this impact through the implementation of planned revenue growth initiatives, as well as ongoing efficiency programmes.
Following the successful completion of TCM in 2011, HEINEKEN is introducing a new €500 million cost saving programme (TCM2) that will run from 2012 to 2014 across Supply Chain, Commerce, Wholesale and other functions. TCM2 is focused on driving operational cost efficiencies, and on leveraging HEINEKEN’s increasing global scale, primarily enabled through the Global Business Services (GBS) organisation formed in 2010. The initial scope of GBS will require an upfront investment of approximately €200 million through to the end of 2014, of which €32 million has already been incurred in 2011. These will be reported as part of the Company’s operating costs.
HEINEKEN has made strong progress on the realisation of its targeted €150 million cost synergies related to the acquired beer operations of FEMSA and expects to achieve this during 2012.
HEINEKEN expects a further organic decline in the number of employees in 2012.
HEINEKEN expects a slight increase in the effective tax rate (beia) in 2012 (2011: 26.8%) and forecasts a slightly higher average interest rate of around 5.5% (2011: 5.2%), primarily reflecting a movement in the currency mix of its debt.
Alongside ongoing business capability investments to leverage its global scale, HEINEKEN continues to focus on capital investment in higher growth markets. The Company plans to increase capital expenditure on property, plant and equipment to approximately €1.25 billion (2011: €800 million) reflecting investment in additional capacity and the renewal and expansion of its returnable bottle fleet in higher growth markets. As a consequence, HEINEKEN expects a cash conversion ratio below 100%.
Total dividend for 2011The Heineken N.V. stated dividend policy is a pay-out ratio of 30% to 35% of full-year net profit (beia). The payment of a total cash dividend of €0.83 per share of €1.60 nominal value for 2011 (total dividend 2010: €0.76) will be proposed to the annual meeting of shareholders. If approved, a final dividend of €0.53 per share will be paid on 2 May 2012, as an interim dividend of €0.30 per share was paid on 6 September 2011. The payment will be subject to a 15% Dutch withholding tax. The ex-final dividend date for Heineken N.V. shares will be 23 April 2012.
20 Фев. 2012