Russia: Positions of Brewing CompaniesThe review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.
Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brandsIn 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.
Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.
The trend of complication of Russian beer market is going on and in several directions at the same time. The range has got wider, the import and small segments are growing, namely craft beer, alcohol-free beer and special flavor beer. At the same time, all ex-mega brands and light lagers by Russian brewers are experiencing a decline of their shares. AB InBev Efes, Heineken, MBC and Pivzavod Trekhsosenskiy have exceeded the market, Carlsberg was developing slower than the market and Ochakovo as well as some other mid-sized breweries have been cutting down their volumes. To a big extent brewers’ performance was connected to their ability to reach agreement with networks, sacrifice their margin and enter new markets. Craft brewers are facing a serious danger of producers’ registration introduction – de facto licensing. ...
The global outlooks of the legal market of cannabis are excellent. It is possible to simultaneously imagine dry law repeal and craft brewing boom but not in one but in several consumer categories. For alcohol is contained in liquids and cannabis derivatives can be in three physical forms.The value of legal market of cannabis and its products can reach 10% of the world beer market in five years, and in 2030-2040 even reach the same scope provided the current rates of legalization and development of market infrastructure remain at the same level. Cannabinoids are actively integrating into the food industry from chewing gum to beverages deforming the pharmaceutical and alcohol markets, they influence the trends of healthy lifestyle and beauty. ...
The Second Craft Beer Revolution: Will it Stick This Time?
There were just a few hundred people in attendance, but it had the aura of a circus. (In fact, Brewers Association chief Charlie Papazian appeared on stage in a clown outfit. I can’t remember why.) When Charlie asked for a show of hands of who was planning on getting into the beer business, about half raised their hands. Later, Boston Beer Co.’s Jim Koch practically pleaded with the crowd to remember to put code dates on their beer and make sure it’s fresh. I think he foresaw what was coming, but I don’t think most people had a clue of what he was talking about.
The exuberance and electricity in the air were palpable. Craft beer was hitting the national radar, and rags-to-riches stories abounded. Since 1985, the craft beer segment had not experienced less than 20 percent growth per year. In fact, for most of the years between 1985 and 1997, volume was up 40 to 60 percent, and in 1987 it was up more than 100 percent. These were heady numbers, and everybody from disenchanted Wall Street financiers to burned-out engineers to young get-rich-quick swashbucklers was looking longingly at our little industry.
Pete Slosberg of Pete’s Wicked Ale was our god. He signed a baseball for me. I can’t think why. Our distributorship acquired the rights to his brand in Houston and then proceeded to ride that brand to amazing heights, rivaling Sam Adams, only to then ride it down again until he sold the brand to The Gambrinus Co. in 1998, which discontinued it last year.
I also met Andy Klein, who started a contract brewery called Spring Street Brewery, which made Wit Beer. He later succeeded in creating Wit Capital, an online investment bank that sold shares directly to the public over the Web. Eventually Wit Beer faded away, but he sold Wit Capital for millions.
There was a hot beer that year called Rhino Chasers. It too faded away. Anheuser-Busch was soon to introduce a red amber beer called Red Wolf. Yep, it faded to obscurity. I met yet another guy who was funding his beer on the Vancouver stock exchange as a penny stock. It was contract brewed, naturally. It is not available anymore.
What we didn’t know back in 1994 was that this euphoric craft beer bubble was about to burst. The 40 high-volume increases we had seen since 1985 were to turn into a 1 percent gain in 1997. The frenzy of new contract-brewed brands had hit a fever pitch, and people were shipping beer to distributors regardless of demand. Suddenly, beer of questionable taste and quality started backing up the supply chain until distributors and retailers said “no more.” Shipments were refused and a shakeout ensued. Strong brewers continued to grow, but others fell like flies.
Too many microbrewers sailed too close to the sun, and their wings melted, sending them crashing back to earth. Or more like flies getting too close to one of those electric fly zappers. Or something.
Many folks are drawing parallels between today and the mid-1990s. There are now almost 2,000 craft breweries with another 1,000 being planned. People are flocking into the industry. Bankers are lurking in hallways at the CBC.
Will we see a repeat of this as capacity grows and 1,000 new brewers come online? I don’t think so. First of all, we aren’t seeing the 40 to 60 percent growth we saw back then. More like 9 to 12 percent today. Craft beer’s Cameron Diaz legs of 1995 are today more like Sissy Spacek legs—still not bad, but they’ve got some maturity, and only serious fans find them attractive. That’s sustainable as more and more young people enter the market and prefer more flavorful beers. And we don’t have as many charlatans entering the space. Distributors have proved to be pretty decent gatekeepers. They are more careful about whom they take on their book. The beer must have a good story, somebody who is passionate about it and excellent quality to even get a seat at the table. Distributors today, many of whom were burned with worthless inventory in 1997, are more careful about whom they’ll do business with. Retailers, too.
But aside from the industry controls, there is also an important consumer component today that did not exist in 1996. They did not have the digital tools we have today. They didn’t have Facebook or Twitter. These are automatic controls that will keep what Jim Koch refers to as “science experiments” off the shelves.
In fact, I think that Charlie Papazian’s recent prediction of craft beer reaching a 10 percent market share in a few years is a pretty safe bet. With all the new brewing capacity coming online—not only with Sierra, New Belgium, Lagunitas, Oskar Blues, SweetWater, Dogfish Head, Ninkasi, Bell’s et al, and with new breweries being completed—I think more than a share point a year is a slam dunk. Brewers Association director Paul Gatza estimates 3 million more barrels of capacity is in the planning stage, and that’s just what’s publicly announced. Craft brewing grew 1.3 million barrels last year. So all that math adds up to capacity keeping up with demand for the next two or so years, provided demand keeps growing at the same pace it is today. In the near future, if the demand curve continues in its current trajectory, there will likely be even more investment in capacity, to the tune of more than $1.5 billion.
Bottom line: Yes, I think it’s definitely possible for craft to hit a 10 percent share by 2017, if not probable. The main impediment to reaching that goal in my mind would be the competing growth rates of the Big Brewers’ craft brands (Blue Moon, Shock Top, Leinie’s, Goose etc.), which are not in the BA’s definition of a craft beer. This craft-beer revolution is different. The people I see entering the industry, for the most part, are actually interested in the beer. They may be bankers or plumbers, but most of them are also homebrewers, or they really care about making good beer. Imagine that.
It takes me back to the lunch I had with legendary Belgian brewer Pierre Celis in 1994 in Austin. A genial man with a small frame, Celis was just glad to be back in the brewing industry. When his brewery in Belgium burned to the ground, he regrouped and chose Austin, Texas, for his next brewery and made an excellent wheat beer before it was popular. He told me, “Harry, this revolution in beer will only be sustainable if we make beer for the right reasons. And the only right reason to make beer is to make great beer that you’re proud to serve to your friends and like to drink yourself.”
24 Янв. 2013