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3-2019

Russia: Positions of Brewing Companies

The review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.

Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brands

In 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.

Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019

During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.

Singapore. Splurging billions on Peroni and Grolsch may not be the smartest move for F&N

Expanding in the ASEAN might make better sense.

Analysts are wary over Fraser and Neave’s involvement in the EUR3 billion sale of premium European beer brands Peroni and Grolsch.

A report by DBS said that FNN’s interest in Peroni and Grolsch is surprising, as analysts had the impression that the group will simply focus on expanding its presence in the ASEAN.

“We are a little mixed on this development at this stage. On the surprise factor, we had the impression that the focus of FNN/ThaiBev would be more on ASEAN region. That said, we believe the intention is to leverage on the Peroni and Grolsch European brands to launch into this region if it was successful,” DBS said.

The report added that FNN might be looking to claw back its beer profits, which vanished after the divestment of its stake in Myanmar Brewery Limited.

“We believe the intention was to leverage on FNN for international expansion, while ThaiBev’s focus remains within Thailand. Although the ThaiBev/ FNN group has a presence in the region, an established beer distribution network is currently only in Thailand (Chang), coupled with export presence in Singapore and Myanmar. It remains to be seen if FNN will be able to significantly ramp up the introduction of the brands within short span of time in the region,” said DBS.

Despite its misgivings, DBS believes that Peroni and Grolsch’s price tag is not excessively high. If the bid pushes through, FNN is likely to fund the acquisition using a mix of internal cash, debt and equity.

“Based on our initial estimates and assuming a price tag of EUR2.5bn (S$3.75bn), we believe FNN is likely to rely on a mix of funding, about 53% debt (S$2bn), 25% equity (S$950m) and 21% cash (S$800m). This is likely to bring FNN’s net gearing to 0.6x (post assumed equity issuance) with a Debt/ EBITDA of under 4x,” said DBS.

4 Фев. 2016

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