Dmitry Nekrasov’s Philosophy — on the Past, Present and Future of Ukrainian Brewing IndustryA meeting with Dmitry Nekrasov always turns into a training course: “Introduction to brewing business“. We are talking to a clever “playing trainer“ a person that can be called a godfather of the Ukrainian craft. He has a dozen of successful projects to his name. Dmitry told us about craft beer in Ukraine, on market cycles, on specifity of operating in retail and HoReCa, on union of Ukrainian brewers and certainly, how a brewery of his own, First Dnipro Brewery is doing.
The market of import beer in Russia: review and databasesThe market of import beer is rapidly growing and changing. But while in the past years it was growing due to brands variety, in 2019 major and affordable brands from TOP-10 were developing actively. It seems that the fact of a brand origin from far abroad counties, even if it is not well known but has moderate price and good distribution provides for million liters of sales in the territory of Russia. Among distributors AB InBev Efes was far behind, yet the role of Baltika and suppliers of the second row got more important. The boom of German brands was followed by stagnation of import from other traditional regions (and Belarus) instead the supplies from Mexico, Lithuania and Asian countries grew considerably.
Russia: Positions of Brewing CompaniesThe review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.
Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brandsIn 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.
Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.
The trend of complication of Russian beer market is going on and in several directions at the same time. The range has got wider, the import and small segments are growing, namely craft beer, alcohol-free beer and special flavor beer. At the same time, all ex-mega brands and light lagers by Russian brewers are experiencing a decline of their shares. AB InBev Efes, Heineken, MBC and Pivzavod Trekhsosenskiy have exceeded the market, Carlsberg was developing slower than the market and Ochakovo as well as some other mid-sized breweries have been cutting down their volumes. To a big extent brewers’ performance was connected to their ability to reach agreement with networks, sacrifice their margin and enter new markets. Craft brewers are facing a serious danger of producers’ registration introduction – de facto licensing. ...
A Cross-Border Battle: Singapore and Malaysia’s Giant Alcohol Companies
When times are good, people celebrate and drink. When times are normal, people socialize and drink. When times are bad, people weep and drink. No matter what, people will drink.
Of course that was meant to be a joke. But, there is actually some truth in it. Investors in some of the largest alcoholic beverages companies in Singapore and Malaysia would have done very well over the past decade.
In Singapore’s stock market, the largest maker and distributor of alcoholic beverages is Thai Beverage Public Company Limited (SGX: Y92), with a market capitalisation of S$17 billion. Having been listed since May 2006, Thai Beverage has generated a return of 281% (with dividends reinvested) since its initial public offering.
In Malaysia, we have the RM4.2 billion (S$1.4 billion) Guinness Anchor Berhad (KLSE:3255.KL). Over the same period, the company has seen its shares achieve a return of 361% (in ringgit terms) after accounting for reinvested dividends.
So, these returns work out to compound annual growth rates of 14.7% for Thai Beverage and 17% for Guinness Anchor.
With such impressive track records, which of the two might actually be a better investment now? It’s not an easy question to answer, but a look at certain aspects of their business fundamentals can give us clues.
Thai Beverage is one of the largest alcoholic beverages companies in Thailand – it certainly is the largest listed firm in that line of business in Singapore as mentioned earlier. The company counts Chang Beer as one of the many alcoholic beverages in its product portfolio. Thai Beverage’s business mainly resides in Thailand at the moment, but it has a target to increase exports as a percentage of total revenue to 50% by 2020.
Meanwhile, Guinness Anchor is the largest brewery in Malaysia in terms of its marketshare – the company controls close to 60% of the market. Guinness Anchor distributes beer and stout brands like Heineken, Guinness, Tiger, and Anchor. The company is also, like Thai Beverage, mainly a domestic story.
Revenue and profit
In 2014, Thai Beverage had earned revenue of THB162 billion (S$6.4 billion) and net income of THB21.7 billion (S$0.85 billion). This compares with Guinness Anchor’s revenue of RM1.75 billion (S$0.58 billion) and profit of RM214 million (S$71 million) in its fiscal year ended 30 June 2015 (FY2015).
As you can tell, the size of Thai Beverage’s business is at least 10 times larger than that of Guinness Anchor. This makes the Thailand-based company the clear winner when it comes to size.
But in terms of profitability, Guinness Anchor is way out of Thai Beverage’s league.
Guinness Anchor had achieved a return on equity of 58% in FY2015 with the important financial metric coming in at above 35% since FY2011.
It’s worth pointing out that Guinness Anchor had achieved its remarkable returns on equity while employing minimal leverage; to that point, the company’s net to debt to equity ratio from FY2011 to FY2015 had reached a high of only 21%. Over the same period, the Malaysian alcoholic beverages outfit had also averaged an impressive gross margin of 34%.
Let’s now turn to Thai Beverage. While the company’s financials are not lousy by any means, they are clearly inferior to that of Guinness Anchor’s. So, from 2010 to 2014, the highest return on equity that Thai Beverage had generated was 38.8% (that was in 2012); on average over those five years, its return on equity had been ‘just’ 23.8%.
Moreover, Thai Beverage had been using way more debt than Guinness. In the five years from 2010 to 2014, Thai Beverage’s lowest net debt to equity ratio was 16% with the highest coming in at 116%. The company’s average gross margin in that period was also ‘only’ 27.5%.
So, Guinness Anchor is quite clearly the more profitable business of the two.
This is an area where both companies look similar. At its current share price of S$0.685, Thai Beverage is trading at 16 times its trailing earnings. Meanwhile, Guinness Anchor has a price-to-earnings ratio of 18 at its share price of RM14.08 at the moment.
In summary, Thai Beverage has the advantage of size while Guinness Anchor is clearly the one with the stronger profitability. Both companies have similar valuations. While what I’ve shared is useful as a starting point for further study, do note that the information shouldn’t be taken as the final word on the investing merits of the two companies.
17 Фев. 2016