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3-2019

Russia: Positions of Brewing Companies

The review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.

Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brands

In 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.

Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019

During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.

Malaysia. CIMB Research retains Overweight on brewers

CIMB Equities Research is retaining its Overweight stance on the brewers as the recent increase in excise duty will not negatively impact the earnings of GAB and Carlsberg significantly.

Hence, it adjusted its earnings slightly by lowering malt liquor market (MLM) volume and imputing higher average selling prices to account for the changes in the duty structure as well as the removal of the ad valorem tax.

“We maintain Overweight on the sector while switching our sector’s top pick to Guinness Anchr Bhd (GAB) from Carlsberg given the higher potential upside,” it said on Thursday.

CIMB Research said the two brewers move to hike prices on average by 2%-5% as fair as they have been maintaining prices since 2015 despite the implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST) which came into effect in April 2015, and other cost hikes.

Any downside to MLM volume is expected to be limited given the manageable quantum of increase and consumers switching to beer from other alcoholic drinks. The removal of the 15% ad valorem tax creates a level playing field for all, it said.

“Overall, we believe that MLM volumes are unlikely to be impacted significantly. The removal of the 15% ad valorem tax across all beer categories is also positive for brewers.

“Given that all types of beer with similar alcohol content will be subject to the same fixed rate based on the duty structure, this creates a fair competitive environment regardless of the brewer or brewing location,” it said.

11 Мар. 2016

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