Dmitry Nekrasov’s Philosophy — on the Past, Present and Future of Ukrainian Brewing IndustryA meeting with Dmitry Nekrasov always turns into a training course: “Introduction to brewing business“. We are talking to a clever “playing trainer“ a person that can be called a godfather of the Ukrainian craft. He has a dozen of successful projects to his name. Dmitry told us about craft beer in Ukraine, on market cycles, on specifity of operating in retail and HoReCa, on union of Ukrainian brewers and certainly, how a brewery of his own, First Dnipro Brewery is doing.
The market of import beer in Russia: review and databasesThe market of import beer is rapidly growing and changing. But while in the past years it was growing due to brands variety, in 2019 major and affordable brands from TOP-10 were developing actively. It seems that the fact of a brand origin from far abroad counties, even if it is not well known but has moderate price and good distribution provides for million liters of sales in the territory of Russia. Among distributors AB InBev Efes was far behind, yet the role of Baltika and suppliers of the second row got more important. The boom of German brands was followed by stagnation of import from other traditional regions (and Belarus) instead the supplies from Mexico, Lithuania and Asian countries grew considerably.
Russia: Positions of Brewing CompaniesThe review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.
Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brandsIn 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.
Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.
The trend of complication of Russian beer market is going on and in several directions at the same time. The range has got wider, the import and small segments are growing, namely craft beer, alcohol-free beer and special flavor beer. At the same time, all ex-mega brands and light lagers by Russian brewers are experiencing a decline of their shares. AB InBev Efes, Heineken, MBC and Pivzavod Trekhsosenskiy have exceeded the market, Carlsberg was developing slower than the market and Ochakovo as well as some other mid-sized breweries have been cutting down their volumes. To a big extent brewers’ performance was connected to their ability to reach agreement with networks, sacrifice their margin and enter new markets. Craft brewers are facing a serious danger of producers’ registration introduction – de facto licensing. ...
India. Tamil Nadu set to have complete prohibition; experts question implementation
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and AIADMK Supremo J Jayalalithaa said that if her party is voted back to power, step by step prohibition will be implemented.
“Full prohibition is not possible in one signature or overnight. It will be implemented in stages," she said. The strategy would be first reducing the timing of the shops and reducing number of shops and bars, said Jayalalithaa.
AIADMK's main rival DMK also promised full prohibition immediately and said employees of TASMAC, which is in charge of wholesale liquor sales in the state, will be given alternate jobs.
Without giving details on how the party is planning to compensate the revenue loss, DMK's Supermo Karunanidhi said his party will take appropriate measures to compensate the revenue loss.
TASMAC turnover grew from Rs 139.41 crore in 1983-84 to over Rs 27,000 crore now. There are about 6800 TASMAC outlets across the state.
In 1983, Tamil Nadu State Marketing Corporation (Tasmac) was instituted to monopolise wholesale trade of Indian Made Foreign Liquor and that facilitated cost-effective excise duty collection.
In 1937, prohibition was introduced by C Rajagopalachari (Rajaji) in Salem and in phases it was implemented in other parts of the state. But in 1971, DMK Government headed by Karunanidhi withdrew the total prohibition. Karunanidhi said it was due bleak economic situation and the shops were closed in 1974, after which, he alleged, that the alchoholic beverages shops were opened by AIADMK government in 1981.
Jayalalithaa said in the last five years sales has been coming down which is a sign of state started going towards full prohibition. She noted, sales of IMFL (Indian Made Foreign Liquor) during DMK's period increased by 109 per cent to 4.78 crore boxes and beer sales which was around 1.32 crore boxes in 2005-06 has increased to 2.86 crore 2010-11, during DMK regime.
In the last five years the sales dropped to around 2.31 crore
Is complete prohibition possible?
Political and economists, who tracks the state, said it is impossible, considering revenue from liquor amounting to over 20-25% of the State's Own Tax Revenue every year. How they will adjust the revenue gap and how they will be funding Government's welfare and freebies schemes, they questioned. It may noted, DMK's manifesto did not had much of electronics freebies.
The party which was the first one to introduce the freebies concept by offering free television sets to voters, this time said it will give free mobile sets, for the poor. It also said free 3G/4G will be given to students."Both the parties do not have real intention to bring in prohibition. If they are going to stop liquor sales, they may have to borrow an additional Rs 25,000 crore to execute all those freebies," said M R Venkatesh, a Chartered Accountant and an expert in economic policy related matters.
Both the parties have not really put their thoughts into the idea and meagerly proclaims prohibition out of competitive spirit, he added.
The ruling AIADMK has been distributing free mixies, grinders, fans, cows, goats and others for the last five years. Over the past decade, successive governments in the state have spent nearly $2 billion (Rs 11,561 crore) on just three freebie schemes - colour television sets, laptops and household appliances. Tamil Nadu's outstanding debt in 2014-15 was Rs 1,81,036 crore and this is expected to increase to Rs 2,11,483 crore.
When the AIADMK took charge State debt was Rs 1,01,349 crore. One of the reasons is various freebies and subsidy programme, alleges some political parties."Closure of TASMAC shops will result in loss of income to the level of thousands of crore of rupees to state, which would force the government to suspend several of its welfare measures," said an official. He added the fact that there is not much scope left for further imposing of taxes.
Venkatesh said that it does not mean that prohibition cannot be implemented, and he believes that it has to be brought in and reminded that the State of Gujarat is revenue surplus even after prohibition, regardless whether their policies are good or not.
However, it means cutting down expenditure in all means and stopping various freebies. Tamil Nadu has projected a revenue surplus of Rs 664.06 crore for 2014-15, but reported a revenue deficit of Rs 6,407.56 crore.
While the projection for 2015-16 was a revenue surplus of Rs 783.43 crore, the revised estimates shows a revenue deficit of Rs 9,481.14 crore. For 2016-17, the projection is revenue surplus of Rs 311.45 crore, while the budget estimates is a revenue deficit of Rs 9,154.78 crore. The other problem, according to experts, in implementing total prohibition could lead to illicit liquor. Duplicate liquor will be sold in black, which may even cause health hazards to the public and it will damage the ruling party.
Political critics also alleges that many of the distilleries are owned by politicians and over Rs 3,500 crore worth of liquor, are supplied by these distilleries. He questioned if suspension of freebies, expenditure optimisation, industrialisation gets further boost and other measures can be carried out, then there is a feasibility. But at the current environment none of this is possible.
13 Апр. 2016