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4-2017

Global hop market

A local alternative to mass beer suggested by independent brewers has been successful and is now altering the global market. Beer is becoming more diversified, so transnational companies have to accept the new game rules and to switch focus to young and fast growing markets. All these processes increased the demand for aroma and bitter hop as well as their acreage expansion on two continents. However now there appeared a downward trend of alcohol consumption in the world, so even special sorts can soon turn to be sufficient. In this connection the dynamic American hop market is already facing some problems. EU hop producers have become more cautious, they are not racing to exceed the demand and look forward with more confidence, judging by the contract terms. 

Hop Market in Russia

Germany still dominates the Russian market, yet over the recent two years one has been able observe a continuous success of Czech hop suppliers. Their expansion and growing popularity of hops from the United States became the drivers of supplies growth in 2016 despite the preceding modest harvest crop in the EU, as well as the factor of relative stability in 2017. In this connection, in 2017, the ratio of the varieties continued to shift towards the aroma ones, and the supplies of Magnum hop and other alpha varieties were reduced. However, the import of bitter hop pellets is partially replaced by extracts, especially from the major beer manufacturers. Total volumes of alpha acid supplies, according to our estimation, decreased by approximately 5% and returned to the level of 2015. Barth Haas Group continues dominating the hop products market; HVG also increased its weight. At the same time, Morris Hanbury significantly reduced the supplies in 2017.

Heineken Beer Volume Beats Estimates on Asia, Americas

Heineken NV reported beer shipments that rose at more than double the rate analysts expected thanks to growth across Asia and Latin America, sending the shares up as much as 4.6 percent.

Beer volume rose 7 percent, the world’s third-biggest brewer said Wednesday in a statement. Analysts expected 2.4 percent growth. The figure excludes the impact of acquisitions, disposals and currency swings. Profit fell 54 percent to 265 million euros ($301 million) due to a 379 million-euro capital gain last year from the sale of a Mexican packaging unit. The shares rose 3.2 percent as of 9:08 a.m. in Amsterdam, having touched a record 86.95 euros.

It’s a “blowout performance,” wrote Jonathan Fyfe, an analyst at Mirabaud. “The quarter is an advert for Heineken’s favorable market positioning across the Americas region.”

The surprise is a large one for Heineken, which has reported sales within 1.5 percentage points of the analyst consensus in each of the past 10 years. The underlying business in Asia was also strong, Fyfe said.

“Can we analysts be quite that badly wrong?,” Andrew Holland, an analyst at Societe Generale, said by phone. ‘‘Well, yes we can, but the company did also flag the timing of New Year celebrations in China and Vietnam and other one-offs.”

Beer volume in Asia Pacific rose 23 percent, boosted by Vietnamese and Chinese new year celebrations. Growth in the region was almost five times faster than the 4.5 percent median analyst estimate. In Africa, Middle East and Eastern Europe, volume growth was led by Ethiopia and Nigeria, where the company has forecast that conditions will remain challenging and the consumer environment weak due to the low global oil price.

The company didn’t quantify the impact of the new year parties and early Easter in the release.

Heineken also reiterated guidance that it anticipates stronger sales and profit in 2016 despite a slowdown in some emerging markets, where the company generates nearly two-thirds of its earnings. The maker of Tiger lager has forecast gains in Asia including in Vietnam, one of its three largest markets. But it’s not alone, as Denmark’s Carlsberg A/S is also pursuing growth in Vietnam and countries like India to offset persistent declines in Russia.

Heineken is trying to keep a lid on expectations by leaving the guidance unchanged, Societe Generale’s Holland said.

20 Апр. 2016

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