The trend of complication of Russian beer market is going on and in several directions at the same time. The range has got wider, the import and small segments are growing, namely craft beer, alcohol-free beer and special flavor beer. At the same time, all ex-mega brands and light lagers by Russian brewers are experiencing a decline of their shares. AB InBev Efes, Heineken, MBC and Pivzavod Trekhsosenskiy have exceeded the market, Carlsberg was developing slower than the market and Ochakovo as well as some other mid-sized breweries have been cutting down their volumes. To a big extent brewers’ performance was connected to their ability to reach agreement with networks, sacrifice their margin and enter new markets. Craft brewers are facing a serious danger of producers’ registration introduction – de facto licensing. ...
The global outlooks of the legal market of cannabis are excellent. It is possible to simultaneously imagine dry law repeal and craft brewing boom but not in one but in several consumer categories. For alcohol is contained in liquids and cannabis derivatives can be in three physical forms. The value of legal market of cannabis and its products can reach 10% of the world beer market in five years, and in 2030-2040 even reach the same scope provided the current rates of legalization and development of market infrastructure remain at the same level. Cannabinoids are actively integrating into the food industry from chewing gum to beverages deforming the pharmaceutical and alcohol markets, they influence the trends of healthy lifestyle and beauty. ...
Beer market of Kazakhstan acquired both traits of East European countries and South Eastern Asia taking a transitional position between them by many criteria and consumption style. Yet there is a positive trend in beer production which differs Kazakhstan from most of the neighboring countries. The market has remained consolidated in the hands of two international players because of its small size. However, it faces dynamic processes such as fast growth of draft beer sales, up and downs of regional companies and Carlsberg Group’s ultimate expansion. Excessive mainstream segment has declined over the recent years, yet, Zhigulevskoe and national brands with regional links have yielded their positions to a range of new products. In our review special attention was paid to regional analysis of the markets. In 14 regions of Kazakhstan we compared the companies’ positions, the market price segmentation and DIOT channel development. Besides we have compared the beer market of Kazakhstan to neighboring countries. ...
Vietnam. Saigon Beer Can Quench Asahi’s Thirst
AB InBev and SABMiller, Heineken, Asahi, Kirin, ThaiBev and Singha Asia have all registered to bid for stakes in state-owned Sabeco, maker of Saigon Beer and 333. With a price tag of at least $1.8 billion and a government facing a ballooning budget deficit, interested parties don't need to beat down the door.
"The government wants to sell its stake as soon as possible," Sabeco CEO Le Hong Xanh told Bloomberg News. "All we care about is who will pay the most."
Vietnam had one of the world's fastest rates of growth in GDP per capita during 2015
Vietnam has real attractions for brewers, whose revenue tends to be linked to the size and wealth of a country's key beer-drinking demographic, its working-age population.
The Southeast Asian nation was one of the world's 10 fastest-growing economies in 2015, and its demographic statistics are even more attractive. By 2030, it's likely to add about five million people between the ages of 15 and 64, giving it a bigger working-age population than Japan:
Vietnam's working-age population will overtake Japan's by 2030
Japan is the player to watch in this contest. Most brewers based in rich countries with stagnant local demographics have worked hard in recent decades to give themselves global reach, but Japan's local heroes have fallen behind. Asahi makes 86 percent of its revenue at home, followed by Sapporo at 82 percent and Kirin at 65 percent.
Drinking at Home
Domestic sales make up a bigger share of revenue at Asahi than at any other big rich-country brewer
It's Asahi that most needs a deal of this sort. Kirin has already struck alliances with Tsingtao and the Philippines' San Miguel in Asia, and it owns Brazil's second-biggest brewer, the former Schincariol. Asahi's biggest deal to date, an acquisition of AB InBev's Peroni and Grolsch brands in Europe, makes much less sense.
Vietnam's government doesn't look to be asking an excessive amount for its 90 percent stake, either. Sabeco has a 40 percent share of the local market, but the $1.8 billion value the state has put on the business is only 11 times forecast 2016 net income of 3.76 trillion dong ($169 million). That's a steal relative to the median 40 times net income multiple in 17 brewery deals worldwide over the past five years.
Analysts expect Asahi to generate 214 billion yen ($2.1 billion) of free cash flow by the end of 2018, so it certainly has the money to make an acquisition. Its problem is slow top-line growth: After seeing revenue climb 27 percent in the four years through 2015, forecasts show a 4.1 percent increase in the same period to 2019.
Vietnam is still something of a frontier market, and Asahi's overseas forays haven't always ended happily. But in this instance it shouldn't be put off by the substantial lineup of interested players. There may be a crush at the bar, but Asahi is a company badly in need of refreshment.
9 Сен. 2016