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3-2019

Russia: Positions of Brewing Companies

The review contains an analysis of interim performance of brewers in the first half of 2019. There are rather dynamic changes behind a modest industry growth. Baltika is again experiencing a stage of volumes and market share slid due to competition with AB InBev Efes. Because of the price competition and presence expansion in the modern trade company #2. has come close to the leading position. At the same time sales of Heineken Russia have continued growing which makes the premium part of the portfolio heavier. The market premiumization trend had been also confirmed by import brands. MBC and Zavod Trekhsosenskiy have been the most successful among federal market players. The market share of independent regional brewers and Ochakovo have continued falling as they are being squeezed out by the market leaders at their competitive fields.

Ukrainian beer market 2019: companies and brands

In 2019 beer production and market have been still fluctuating about zero point. However, the past season was successful for brewers judging by the sales profitability. The price mix has improved due to rapid general market premiumization, as well as its particular aspect, the growth of import beer sales. By the season end AB InBev Efes improved its positions considerably. It turned out that consumers had not forgot Efes brands that had to leave the market, but started to recover rapidly. Against the stagnating market that meant sales decline of other companies, in the first place Carlsberg Group that most of all beneficiated from Efes exiting the market. PPB turned out to be stable to branding activity of its competitor and Obolon kept the same volumes and at the moment it is the absolute leader of the economy segment. The share growth of independent producers took place thanks to leading craft breweries, that so far do not have a big market weight, but they are rapidly gaining it.

Brewing industry in Kazakhstan 2019

During the first half of 2019, the majority of Kazakh brewers made their contribution into positive dynamics. Yet it was companies of the lower division, not the two transnational leaders that raised their production and sales. The shares of draft beer and aluminum can which is rapidly squeezing glass bottle out of the market, have been growing. The price segmentation has remained stable despite the substantial rise of retail prices and fluctuations of brand market shares, while the borders between segments have become blurred. The main events in the industry have been: the announced revision of the beer excise policy, launch of BeerKhan brand in the strong beer segment, and most important – purchasing assets of Shymkentbeer by Arasan.

Thailand. ThaiBev’s Tipsy Valuation Risks a Hangover for Investors

The third-largest company in the world's biggest Buddhist-majority country is ThaiBev, which makes its money selling rum and beer to a population whose religious texts exhort them to abstain from alcohol.

Fully 63 percent of working-age Thais are teetotallers, according to a 2007 study, and yet trailing 12-month revenues at the maker of Chang beer and Mekhong rum have risen 53 percent over the past five years.

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You might expect the death of Thailand's King Bhumibol Adulyadej last Thursday to have interrupted this revelry. Public drinking will be frowned on during the 12-month period of mourning and ThaiBev's own website was switched into somber black and white to mark the event. Alcohol sales will be more strictly limited to particular times of the day, according to the Guardian, and hypermarket giant Tesco Lotus suspended all sales of alcoholic drinks, according to AEC News Today.
ThaiBev shares' peak gain Friday
+3.8%
If that's bad news for ThaiBev, someone omitted to tell the shareholders. After falling last week as the king's health worsened, the Singapore-traded stock rebounded with a 1.7 percent gain ahead of the official announcement of his death. In a classic example of sell-the-rumor, buy-the-fact, it rose as much as 3.8 percent on Friday -- the sharpest gain since July. By the close of trade it had only modestly underperformed the benchmark SET index over the period since the King was hospitalized.

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Part of this may represent doubts that the mourning period will turn out to be quite as stringent as everyone expects, though the wailing crowds thronging Thai streets since news of the king's death broke argue against such a conclusion.
ThaiBev's very success is a testament to the country's relaxed interpretation of some of its moral codes. Indeed, one 2002 paper found that Thai men who'd spent periods in their youth living in Buddhist temples were more likely to be heavy drinkers in adulthood than those who had not -- the opposite of what would be expected if the sanction on alcohol was unbreakable.
It's certainly not based on an expectation that ThaiBev's other businesses will help the company ride out a decline in drinking: Just 4.1 percent of its 2015 revenues came from overseas, and 13 percent from food and non-alcoholic drinks.

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Shareholders at present give ThaiBev a forward price-earnings ratio of 21 -- bang on the median for brewers and distillers globally with more than $1 billion in trailing 12-month sales, and ahead of the likes of Diageo, Heineken, Carlsberg and Kweichow Moutai. If more Thais respond to their monarch's death by abstaining from alcohol than choose to drown their sorrows, that valuation could start looking tipsy.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.
-By market capitalization.
-It's often described as a whisky, but is made principally from sugar cane, not malted grains.

17 Окт. 2016

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