Global hop marketA local alternative to mass beer suggested by independent brewers has been successful and is now altering the global market. Beer is becoming more diversified, so transnational companies have to accept the new game rules and to switch focus to young and fast growing markets. All these processes increased the demand for aroma and bitter hop as well as their acreage expansion on two continents. However now there appeared a downward trend of alcohol consumption in the world, so even special sorts can soon turn to be sufficient. In this connection the dynamic American hop market is already facing some problems. EU hop producers have become more cautious, they are not racing to exceed the demand and look forward with more confidence, judging by the contract terms.
Hop Market in RussiaGermany still dominates the Russian market, yet over the recent two years one has been able observe a continuous success of Czech hop suppliers. Their expansion and growing popularity of hops from the United States became the drivers of supplies growth in 2016 despite the preceding modest harvest crop in the EU, as well as the factor of relative stability in 2017. In this connection, in 2017, the ratio of the varieties continued to shift towards the aroma ones, and the supplies of Magnum hop and other alpha varieties were reduced. However, the import of bitter hop pellets is partially replaced by extracts, especially from the major beer manufacturers. Total volumes of alpha acid supplies, according to our estimation, decreased by approximately 5% and returned to the level of 2015. Barth Haas Group continues dominating the hop products market; HVG also increased its weight. At the same time, Morris Hanbury significantly reduced the supplies in 2017.
10+1 trends of Russian beer market 2015-2017Despite of the moderately negative prognoses for 2017, the beer market can be stabilized soon. Yet the years of the negative dynamics have resulted in marketing being limited just to “optimization” and the art of balancing between price and volumes. Bigger supermarkets share means stronger trade marketing. These processes are connected to the majority of the described trends. At the same time, the federal brands inflation leads to searching for new tastes, sales channels and contact formats that expand the product range and diversify the beer market, but do not imply a substantial volume increase. Let us enumerate and further discuss the ten trends of the beer market we can see in 2015-2017 as well as the major event of 2017.
Beer market of Ukraine 2017In the first half of 2017, the Ukrainian beer market goes on decreasing slowly. Yet, the companies manage to compensate their lost volumes by raising prices and improving the sales structures. This results in the mid price market segment reduction while the sales of premium brands are rising. These processes are connected to position strengthening of companies Carlsberg Group and Oasis and the market share reduction of Obolon. Most of the novelties by the market leaders belong to craft or hard lemon categories.
Beer market of Russia 2016: PET goes to draftThe beer market of Russia was warmed up by the hot summer, but the preparation for large volume PET prohibition has already impacted it negatively. The year was successful for Efes, MBC and regional producers; Carlsberg’s positions were virtually stable but AB InBev and Heineken lost a part of market share having focused on the sales profitability. The dynamics of big brands was determined by how much the companies were willing to keep the prices down or by their promotional activity. In this context the economy segment of the beer market and sales of inexpensive draft beer were increasing. The premium segment started shrinking due to license brands migrating to the mainstream segment.
San Miguel sets the stage for bigger venturesFull Year 2010 Results
Ramon Ang, 56, San Miguel president, says he spends much of his time in meetings with the heads of the group’s power, toll roads, water supply, mining and telecommunications units, many of whom used to be senior government officials.
The officer in charge of San Miguel’s power business used to be president of the state power grid company, while the chief consultant on mining and energy formerly headed the mines bureau. Mr Ang has also recruited from the state water company and the public works department.
“They have brought with them over 20 or 30 years worth of knowledge and information,” says Mr Ang. That “technology transfer” has been a boost to San Miguel’s diversification into power generation, petrol refining, infrastructure and mining, he adds.
Since launching a strategic shift to faster-growing businesses in 2008, San Miguel has acquired 68 per cent of the country’s biggest petrol refiner, 33 per cent of its largest electricity distributor. It has acquired the rights to over 3,000 megawatts of private-sector power generating capacity, making it the biggest power supplier in the country.
Yet the company that makes San Miguel Beer, one of the few internationally known brands from the Philippines, is setting the stage for even bigger ventures. Mr Ang tells the Financial Times that San Miguel and its shareholders want to build a cash pile of up to $13.5bn from share sales and fresh debt to finance bids this year for major infrastructure projects.
The nine-month-old administration of president Benigno Aquino III is seeking private-sector partners to build toll roads, airports and urban rail systems on behalf of the cash-strapped government.
The company and its key shareholders are hoping to raise up to $4.5bn from the sale of about one billion new and existing common shares – about half of its outstanding stock – in what could be the country’s biggest shares offering.
San Miguel has named Credit Suisse and Standard Chartered as joint lead underwriters for the offering that it wants to launch as early as next month. The company may also borrow another $9bn in bonds or loans, using the fresh equity capital as leverage, says Mr Ang.
The plans show the scale of San Miguel’s ambition, as the amount of new debt and equity money the company is looking to raise is equivalent to the government’s cumulative infrastructure budget for the past three years.
San Miguel hopes to sell the shares for more than 200 pesos each, or 17.5 per cent above Wednesday’s close of 179.60 pesos. The target price is based on the company’s assessment of future cash flows, reflecting the view that the diversification drive is already a big success.
Mr Ang says San Miguel’s enterprise value less debt this year stands at around $12bn, following the consolidation into the group of the power and petrol refining businesses, compared to a market capitalisation of just $4bn three years ago. Return on equity has more than doubled to 15 per cent from 7 per cent, he adds.
This year, the company expects its power and petrol businesses to account for almost 60 per cent of consolidated revenue, versus just 18 per cent in 2010, boosting overall group revenue by 123 per cent to 520bn pesos. Earnings before interest, taxes and depreciation and amortisation are also projected to rise 83 per cent to 84bn pesos this year, building on last year’s 53 per cent increase.
Investors seem to like what they’re seeing. San Miguel’s share price more than doubled from under 70 pesos in mid-September to a peak of 189.5 pesos in early January though it has since dropped back. The stock “has room to go up further if investors are convinced San Miguel can create more value from its acquisitions,” says Den Somera, a veteran trader and investor.
That is the challenge facing San Miguel. And as one professor of strategic planning puts it: “It’s relatively easy to make money from an operating asset. The real challenge is when they get into infrastructures and build from the ground up.”
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3 Mar. 2011