Global hop marketA local alternative to mass beer suggested by independent brewers has been successful and is now altering the global market. Beer is becoming more diversified, so transnational companies have to accept the new game rules and to switch focus to young and fast growing markets. All these processes increased the demand for aroma and bitter hop as well as their acreage expansion on two continents. However now there appeared a downward trend of alcohol consumption in the world, so even special sorts can soon turn to be sufficient. In this connection the dynamic American hop market is already facing some problems. EU hop producers have become more cautious, they are not racing to exceed the demand and look forward with more confidence, judging by the contract terms.
Hop Market in RussiaGermany still dominates the Russian market, yet over the recent two years one has been able observe a continuous success of Czech hop suppliers. Their expansion and growing popularity of hops from the United States became the drivers of supplies growth in 2016 despite the preceding modest harvest crop in the EU, as well as the factor of relative stability in 2017. In this connection, in 2017, the ratio of the varieties continued to shift towards the aroma ones, and the supplies of Magnum hop and other alpha varieties were reduced. However, the import of bitter hop pellets is partially replaced by extracts, especially from the major beer manufacturers. Total volumes of alpha acid supplies, according to our estimation, decreased by approximately 5% and returned to the level of 2015. Barth Haas Group continues dominating the hop products market; HVG also increased its weight. At the same time, Morris Hanbury significantly reduced the supplies in 2017.
10+1 trends of Russian beer market 2015-2017Despite of the moderately negative prognoses for 2017, the beer market can be stabilized soon. Yet the years of the negative dynamics have resulted in marketing being limited just to “optimization” and the art of balancing between price and volumes. Bigger supermarkets share means stronger trade marketing. These processes are connected to the majority of the described trends. At the same time, the federal brands inflation leads to searching for new tastes, sales channels and contact formats that expand the product range and diversify the beer market, but do not imply a substantial volume increase. Let us enumerate and further discuss the ten trends of the beer market we can see in 2015-2017 as well as the major event of 2017.
Beer market of Ukraine 2017In the first half of 2017, the Ukrainian beer market goes on decreasing slowly. Yet, the companies manage to compensate their lost volumes by raising prices and improving the sales structures. This results in the mid price market segment reduction while the sales of premium brands are rising. These processes are connected to position strengthening of companies Carlsberg Group and Oasis and the market share reduction of Obolon. Most of the novelties by the market leaders belong to craft or hard lemon categories.
Beer market of Russia 2016: PET goes to draftThe beer market of Russia was warmed up by the hot summer, but the preparation for large volume PET prohibition has already impacted it negatively. The year was successful for Efes, MBC and regional producers; Carlsberg’s positions were virtually stable but AB InBev and Heineken lost a part of market share having focused on the sales profitability. The dynamics of big brands was determined by how much the companies were willing to keep the prices down or by their promotional activity. In this context the economy segment of the beer market and sales of inexpensive draft beer were increasing. The premium segment started shrinking due to license brands migrating to the mainstream segment.
Barley shortages could have beer drinkers crying in their suds
Flooding lowered the quality of the latest barley crops in Canada and Australia, leaving some unsuitable to turn into malt, the germinated barley product used in beer.
And by July, malt makers dependent on Canadian supplies will be "running on fumes" ahead of the harvest in autumn when the price of malting barley will jump by one-third, an official with the Canadian Wheat Board said.
Steve Beauchesne of Beau's All Natural Brewing Co. said Monday that any significant spike in barley cost will undoubtedly affect the company's bottom line and could result in a price jump. He said that impact likely would be felt most keenly by smaller operations that use just a handful of ingredients.
"The cost of malted barley is by far the biggest ingredient expense we would have," said Beauchesne, co-founder of the brewery in Vankleek Hill, Ont. "Industrial brewers are using as much as 70 per cent corn syrup these days instead of barley to get their sugar content, so a craft brewer will be affected more than a mega-brewer.
"If your most expensive ingredient goes up dramatically, you're going to have to eat the expense or raise the price. I can't say which exactly we'd be doing . . . but we try to keep our price as low as we can, so we're not in a position to eat big jumps in expenses."
Beauchesne said the last — and only — time their beer jumped in price was in 2008 after a 15 per cent spike in the cost of malted grains.
Brewers might get a reprieve this year from tight supplies of malting barley in top exporter Canada, but higher costs likely will force them to raise the price of beer next year.
Many North American malt makers and brewers have a 2011 cost buffer because of forward-pricing contracts with the Wheat Board, the monopoly seller of Western Canada's malt barley.
Barley is the second-biggest cost, after labour, for some brewers.
Beau's, however, does not have such an agreement to fall back on in the short term.
"We have a good relationship with our supplier, but we're not locked into a five-year contract or anything, so if the prices do go up quickly, we would be hit pretty much as soon as the pricing increase comes into effect," Beauchesne said.
Molson Coors, one of Canada's two biggest brewers, is largely safe from barley price shock this year, said company spokesman Adam Moffat.
But barley prices are unlikely to ease soon, leaving the cost of next year's pint in question, other brewers say.
Beer price increases may happen in the second half of this year, but are more likely starting in 2012, said Dwayne Dubois, chief financial officer at Alberta's Big Rock Brewery.
"Drink up now, is my advice," Dubois said.
Canada's biggest grain handlers generally like high crop prices. But they'll also take a hit — Viterra Inc. and Cargill Inc., Canada's No. 1 and No. 3 grain handlers, face higher costs.
Malt makers and brewers also face the challenge of turning lower-quality barley into malt that will produce consistent beer quality, said Great Western's brewmaster, Viv Jones.The smallest malting barley supply in about nine years means some barley doesn't germinate properly and is discarded.Wet growing-season weather in Canada and Australia has forced the same quality problems on brewers around the world.Global malting barley exports look to be flat at around 4.1 million tonnes in the current 2010-11 crop year, but Lorelle Selinger, manager of marketing and sales for barley with the Canadian Wheat Board, said that's not the whole picture."This year all of the demand was met, but it was met with very poor-quality barley," she said.
The Wheat Board will need the upcoming crop to satisfy beer thirst in China, the world's biggest malting barley importer and top beer brewer, which last year agreed to its biggest-ever purchase from Canada.
The industry is also eyeing spring planting decisions by Canadian farmers, who enjoy a rare chance to choose from many highly priced crop options.
The Wheat Board forecast last week total Canadian barley production projected for 2011-12 at 8.5 million tonnes, up 12 per cent from last year, but still well off the five-year average of about 9.9 million tonnes.
Wet ground has raised the chances of delayed plantings, which might favour a barley rebound since the grain has a shorter growing season than other crops.
8 Mar. 2011