Global hop marketA local alternative to mass beer suggested by independent brewers has been successful and is now altering the global market. Beer is becoming more diversified, so transnational companies have to accept the new game rules and to switch focus to young and fast growing markets. All these processes increased the demand for aroma and bitter hop as well as their acreage expansion on two continents. However now there appeared a downward trend of alcohol consumption in the world, so even special sorts can soon turn to be sufficient. In this connection the dynamic American hop market is already facing some problems. EU hop producers have become more cautious, they are not racing to exceed the demand and look forward with more confidence, judging by the contract terms.
Hop Market in RussiaGermany still dominates the Russian market, yet over the recent two years one has been able observe a continuous success of Czech hop suppliers. Their expansion and growing popularity of hops from the United States became the drivers of supplies growth in 2016 despite the preceding modest harvest crop in the EU, as well as the factor of relative stability in 2017. In this connection, in 2017, the ratio of the varieties continued to shift towards the aroma ones, and the supplies of Magnum hop and other alpha varieties were reduced. However, the import of bitter hop pellets is partially replaced by extracts, especially from the major beer manufacturers. Total volumes of alpha acid supplies, according to our estimation, decreased by approximately 5% and returned to the level of 2015. Barth Haas Group continues dominating the hop products market; HVG also increased its weight. At the same time, Morris Hanbury significantly reduced the supplies in 2017.
10+1 trends of Russian beer market 2015-2017Despite of the moderately negative prognoses for 2017, the beer market can be stabilized soon. Yet the years of the negative dynamics have resulted in marketing being limited just to “optimization” and the art of balancing between price and volumes. Bigger supermarkets share means stronger trade marketing. These processes are connected to the majority of the described trends. At the same time, the federal brands inflation leads to searching for new tastes, sales channels and contact formats that expand the product range and diversify the beer market, but do not imply a substantial volume increase. Let us enumerate and further discuss the ten trends of the beer market we can see in 2015-2017 as well as the major event of 2017.
Beer market of Ukraine 2017In the first half of 2017, the Ukrainian beer market goes on decreasing slowly. Yet, the companies manage to compensate their lost volumes by raising prices and improving the sales structures. This results in the mid price market segment reduction while the sales of premium brands are rising. These processes are connected to position strengthening of companies Carlsberg Group and Oasis and the market share reduction of Obolon. Most of the novelties by the market leaders belong to craft or hard lemon categories.
Beer market of Russia 2016: PET goes to draftThe beer market of Russia was warmed up by the hot summer, but the preparation for large volume PET prohibition has already impacted it negatively. The year was successful for Efes, MBC and regional producers; Carlsberg’s positions were virtually stable but AB InBev and Heineken lost a part of market share having focused on the sales profitability. The dynamics of big brands was determined by how much the companies were willing to keep the prices down or by their promotional activity. In this context the economy segment of the beer market and sales of inexpensive draft beer were increasing. The premium segment started shrinking due to license brands migrating to the mainstream segment.
EU: Expected decrease of winter barley production due to acreage reduction
In Spain and Italy on the contrary the production will likely increase thanks to the increase of the acreage but also (mostly in the case of Spain) to the good yield forecast (+15 % compared to 2010), the comission said..
Among the other producers, the figures of production for Hungary and Belgium are very promising due to both the increase of acreage (+16 % in Belgium) and the yield forecast. In this group, except of Greece, Ireland and Slovenia, the yield forecast for the current season is better than last year.
The yield forecasts for Spain, Greece, Portugal and Belgium are based on scenario analysis, for the other countries the forecast is based on the trend.
Cold December in Western Europe, milder with large fluctuations in Eastern Europe, Black Sea basin and Russia.
According to the MARS Bulletin, crop conditions across Europe are judged satisfactory and no major concerns are detected. Western Europe experienced a cold December with anticipated winter crop dormancy and partially a lower biomass accumulation before the winter. It was milder than usual in Eastern Europe, Black Sea basin and Russia, but large fluctuations and harsh frost did occur negatively impacting on the crops in Russia and Ukraine. For EU 27 no particular frost kill concerns exist, snow covered the crops during cold temperatures in December and cold spells in January. Crops are vulnerable to late frosts due to rather mild temperatures in February.
Early start of the winter -partially underdeveloped crop status
Winter started around the end of November in Germany with plentiful snowfall and low temperatures. The first harsh frosts occurred around the first of December interrupting crop growth at an earlier stage as usual. As a consequence crops started winter dormancy in parts of Germany with less biomass accumulated than on average and have a risk of an underdeveloped root system with possible negative consequences in case of spring droughts. This in combination with the difficult sowing conditions last autumn due to over wet soils (especially the heavy soils in Niedersachsen) did lead to sub-optimal starting conditions for the re-growth of winter crops. A tailored N and S fertilization will be very important to help the crops.Temperatures in December were below the LTA, this holds for the average temperature as well as for minimum and maximum temperatures (with the exception of the South).
As a consequence no temperature sum accumulation took place in December until the 7/8th of January when temperatures rose again leading over to a rather mild period until 20th of January with cumulated temperatures well above the average.
In general January was milder than average. February has seen milder conditions in the south whereas in the north and the east it was colder than usual. For the water supply
Germany as a whole shows a cumulated surplus of rain of almost 20 % since November mostly accumulated throughout November and December. January and February don’t show large deviations from the long term average. Nevertheless soils should be saturated potentially creating problems on the heavy soils (e.g.Niedersachsen) for the coming field works.
17 Mar. 2011