Beer market of Russia 2016: PET goes to draftThe beer market of Russia was warmed up by the hot summer, but the preparation for large volume PET prohibition has already impacted it negatively. The year was successful for Efes, MBC and regional producers; Carlsberg’s positions were virtually stable but AB InBev and Heineken lost a part of market share having focused on the sales profitability. The dynamics of big brands was determined by how much the companies were willing to keep the prices down or by their promotional activity. In this context the economy segment of the beer market and sales of inexpensive draft beer were increasing. The premium segment started shrinking due to license brands migrating to the mainstream segment.
Beer market of Vietnam: “Young tiger”Vietnam is one of the few big beer markets that continue to grow steadily. The beer popularity results from its low price, street consumption culture, and social motives. The outlooks of beer market as well as the Vietnamese economy inspire optimism, though the country is heavily dependent on export of goods. The state regulation can be called liberal, but the key risk for brewers is harbored in intensive rising of excise. Within TOP-4 there are two leaders, Sabeco and Heineken that grow at the fastest rates. The first company effectively employs its capacities, the second one focuses on marketing technologies. Almost 80% of the market belongs to century-old brands, yet the middle class and the youth are shifting their interest toward international premium that is growing taking share from the mainstream.
Analysis of beer market in China (on Russian)
Beer market of Ukraine: big three losing weightIn 2016, fast increase of excises and resulting price spike stood in the way of the beer market stabilization. Most of competition (as well as mass sorts) moved to the economy segment of the market. The biggest losses were incurred by the leading three, especially Obolon, which again experienced pressure after reallocation of Efes market share. However, one should already speak of TOP-4. Group Oasis CIS (PPB) became a strong player and competitor to transnational companies. Besides the net sales of many regional medium breweries look rather good and 16-fold cost reduction wholesale trade license for craft brewers opens up a possibility of rapid growth in 2017.
Global brewers: too much froth
Sounds great; but hold the backslapping. At Heineken, underlying revenues grew by only 3.6 per cent as its price and sales mix fell 2 per cent. At SABMiller, revenue per litre produced rose only 3 per cent. Much of this is attributable to pricing pressures in European economies with high unemployment. So to keep bottom line growth in double-digits, the only option is to continue ripping out costs – a strategy most brewers have employed with aplomb.
But costs can only be reduced so far before long-term effects crop up. Of particular concern is the potential effect on penetration into emerging markets if brewers attempt to subsidise their shaky western European business with a spendthrift attitude in fast-growing regions such as Africa, where costs are often higher because of poor infrastructure and the need to import machinery.
The large brewers trade at about 16 times their forward earnings, almost a 50 per cent premium to the S&P Euro 350 index. Clearly investors expect growth. But if revenues continue to underperform volumes, delivering on those expectations will be difficult. That could leave investors in the same position as Dutch drinkers; paying for a full glass but not quite receiving one.
21 Apr. 2011