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4-2017

Global hop market

A local alternative to mass beer suggested by independent brewers has been successful and is now altering the global market. Beer is becoming more diversified, so transnational companies have to accept the new game rules and to switch focus to young and fast growing markets. All these processes increased the demand for aroma and bitter hop as well as their acreage expansion on two continents. However now there appeared a downward trend of alcohol consumption in the world, so even special sorts can soon turn to be sufficient. In this connection the dynamic American hop market is already facing some problems. EU hop producers have become more cautious, they are not racing to exceed the demand and look forward with more confidence, judging by the contract terms. 

Hop Market in Russia

Germany still dominates the Russian market, yet over the recent two years one has been able observe a continuous success of Czech hop suppliers. Their expansion and growing popularity of hops from the United States became the drivers of supplies growth in 2016 despite the preceding modest harvest crop in the EU, as well as the factor of relative stability in 2017. In this connection, in 2017, the ratio of the varieties continued to shift towards the aroma ones, and the supplies of Magnum hop and other alpha varieties were reduced. However, the import of bitter hop pellets is partially replaced by extracts, especially from the major beer manufacturers. Total volumes of alpha acid supplies, according to our estimation, decreased by approximately 5% and returned to the level of 2015. Barth Haas Group continues dominating the hop products market; HVG also increased its weight. At the same time, Morris Hanbury significantly reduced the supplies in 2017.

AmBev Is One Way To Play Brazil Strength

Recently, Brazil passed the U.S. on a key gauge for the first time.

Credit default swaps, which peg the cost to insure debt against default, are 41.2 basis points on Brazilian bonds vs. 49.7 on U.S. bonds, Brazil's Finance Minister Guido Mantega said Wednesday.

Brazil's economic growth also is faster than that of the States. Brazil grew GDP 7.5% last year vs. 2.8% for the U.S., according to the CIA's World Factbook.

Companhia de Bebidas das Americas (ABV), or AmBev, is one way to play Brazil. The company makes beer and soft drinks.

Of the 35 Brazilian stocks in IBD's database that trade in the U.S., none have a higher Composite Rating than AmBev's 98.

Earnings jumped 17%, 52%, 55% and 32% in recent quarters. Sales rose in a 15% to 17% range in the same period. After-tax margin advanced on a year-ago basis in each of the past five quarters.

AmBev's beer market share is 69% in Brazil. The retail beer channel in Brazil has almost 1 million points of sale, which poses a barrier to entry for potential competitors. AmBev has an 18% market share of the carbonated soft drink market in Brazil vs. 59% for Coca-Cola (KO).

18 Jun. 2011

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