Global hop marketA local alternative to mass beer suggested by independent brewers has been successful and is now altering the global market. Beer is becoming more diversified, so transnational companies have to accept the new game rules and to switch focus to young and fast growing markets. All these processes increased the demand for aroma and bitter hop as well as their acreage expansion on two continents. However now there appeared a downward trend of alcohol consumption in the world, so even special sorts can soon turn to be sufficient. In this connection the dynamic American hop market is already facing some problems. EU hop producers have become more cautious, they are not racing to exceed the demand and look forward with more confidence, judging by the contract terms.
Hop Market in RussiaGermany still dominates the Russian market, yet over the recent two years one has been able observe a continuous success of Czech hop suppliers. Their expansion and growing popularity of hops from the United States became the drivers of supplies growth in 2016 despite the preceding modest harvest crop in the EU, as well as the factor of relative stability in 2017. In this connection, in 2017, the ratio of the varieties continued to shift towards the aroma ones, and the supplies of Magnum hop and other alpha varieties were reduced. However, the import of bitter hop pellets is partially replaced by extracts, especially from the major beer manufacturers. Total volumes of alpha acid supplies, according to our estimation, decreased by approximately 5% and returned to the level of 2015. Barth Haas Group continues dominating the hop products market; HVG also increased its weight. At the same time, Morris Hanbury significantly reduced the supplies in 2017.
10+1 trends of Russian beer market 2015-2017Despite of the moderately negative prognoses for 2017, the beer market can be stabilized soon. Yet the years of the negative dynamics have resulted in marketing being limited just to “optimization” and the art of balancing between price and volumes. Bigger supermarkets share means stronger trade marketing. These processes are connected to the majority of the described trends. At the same time, the federal brands inflation leads to searching for new tastes, sales channels and contact formats that expand the product range and diversify the beer market, but do not imply a substantial volume increase. Let us enumerate and further discuss the ten trends of the beer market we can see in 2015-2017 as well as the major event of 2017.
Beer market of Ukraine 2017In the first half of 2017, the Ukrainian beer market goes on decreasing slowly. Yet, the companies manage to compensate their lost volumes by raising prices and improving the sales structures. This results in the mid price market segment reduction while the sales of premium brands are rising. These processes are connected to position strengthening of companies Carlsberg Group and Oasis and the market share reduction of Obolon. Most of the novelties by the market leaders belong to craft or hard lemon categories.
Beer market of Russia 2016: PET goes to draftThe beer market of Russia was warmed up by the hot summer, but the preparation for large volume PET prohibition has already impacted it negatively. The year was successful for Efes, MBC and regional producers; Carlsberg’s positions were virtually stable but AB InBev and Heineken lost a part of market share having focused on the sales profitability. The dynamics of big brands was determined by how much the companies were willing to keep the prices down or by their promotional activity. In this context the economy segment of the beer market and sales of inexpensive draft beer were increasing. The premium segment started shrinking due to license brands migrating to the mainstream segment.
Carlsberg: Russia Growth Back on Track
"The last couple of years have been challenging, but the market is now back on the growth track," Mr. Buhl Rasmussen said in an interview.
Copenhagen-based Carlsberg, which holds a market share of around 40% in Russia through its ownership of the Baltika Brewery, Russia's largest beer producer, expects Russian beer consumption will return to pre-crisis levels by 2015.
Average Russian beer consumption reached almost 80 liters per head prior to 2008, when oil prices reached record highs fuelling Russia's energy-dependent economy. In some big cities like St. Petersburg, consumption reached 100 liters per person.
However, a three-fold increase in beer tax at the beginning of 2010, which let to a 25% rise in beer prices, coupled with the economic downturn caused average beer consumption to fall to just 66 liters a person last year.
Mr. Buhl Rasmussen forecasts a small growth in the market this year, but expects an annual growth rate of between 3% and 5% in the medium term. Russian beer consumption grew 1.5% in the first quarter, but an unusually cold April could affect the second quarter, the CEO said.
The beer market's recovery has been slowed by escalating costs. Commodity and labor costs in Russia are expected to rise 10% this year, compared to an average increase of 5% in other markets, Mr. Buhl Rasmussen said.
Rising commodity prices are causing problem across all regions, but a severe drought last summer that cut Russia's grain harvest by a third has forced the brewer to import grains.
"The hardest hit region is by no doubt Russia," Mr. Buhl Rasmussen said. "We can't absorb the higher costs. In the end, the consumers will have to pay for the rising commodity prices." So far this year, Carlsberg has increased its beer prices in Russia by 7% to 8%, he said.
21 Jun. 2011