Global hop marketA local alternative to mass beer suggested by independent brewers has been successful and is now altering the global market. Beer is becoming more diversified, so transnational companies have to accept the new game rules and to switch focus to young and fast growing markets. All these processes increased the demand for aroma and bitter hop as well as their acreage expansion on two continents. However now there appeared a downward trend of alcohol consumption in the world, so even special sorts can soon turn to be sufficient. In this connection the dynamic American hop market is already facing some problems. EU hop producers have become more cautious, they are not racing to exceed the demand and look forward with more confidence, judging by the contract terms.
Hop Market in RussiaGermany still dominates the Russian market, yet over the recent two years one has been able observe a continuous success of Czech hop suppliers. Their expansion and growing popularity of hops from the United States became the drivers of supplies growth in 2016 despite the preceding modest harvest crop in the EU, as well as the factor of relative stability in 2017. In this connection, in 2017, the ratio of the varieties continued to shift towards the aroma ones, and the supplies of Magnum hop and other alpha varieties were reduced. However, the import of bitter hop pellets is partially replaced by extracts, especially from the major beer manufacturers. Total volumes of alpha acid supplies, according to our estimation, decreased by approximately 5% and returned to the level of 2015. Barth Haas Group continues dominating the hop products market; HVG also increased its weight. At the same time, Morris Hanbury significantly reduced the supplies in 2017.
10+1 trends of Russian beer market 2015-2017Despite of the moderately negative prognoses for 2017, the beer market can be stabilized soon. Yet the years of the negative dynamics have resulted in marketing being limited just to “optimization” and the art of balancing between price and volumes. Bigger supermarkets share means stronger trade marketing. These processes are connected to the majority of the described trends. At the same time, the federal brands inflation leads to searching for new tastes, sales channels and contact formats that expand the product range and diversify the beer market, but do not imply a substantial volume increase. Let us enumerate and further discuss the ten trends of the beer market we can see in 2015-2017 as well as the major event of 2017.
Beer market of Ukraine 2017In the first half of 2017, the Ukrainian beer market goes on decreasing slowly. Yet, the companies manage to compensate their lost volumes by raising prices and improving the sales structures. This results in the mid price market segment reduction while the sales of premium brands are rising. These processes are connected to position strengthening of companies Carlsberg Group and Oasis and the market share reduction of Obolon. Most of the novelties by the market leaders belong to craft or hard lemon categories.
Beer market of Russia 2016: PET goes to draftThe beer market of Russia was warmed up by the hot summer, but the preparation for large volume PET prohibition has already impacted it negatively. The year was successful for Efes, MBC and regional producers; Carlsberg’s positions were virtually stable but AB InBev and Heineken lost a part of market share having focused on the sales profitability. The dynamics of big brands was determined by how much the companies were willing to keep the prices down or by their promotional activity. In this context the economy segment of the beer market and sales of inexpensive draft beer were increasing. The premium segment started shrinking due to license brands migrating to the mainstream segment.
Heineken shows no appetite for Foster’s counterbid
* Prefers to spend money on Mexico, Brazil, Africa or Asia
* No comment on possible counterbid for Foster's
* Heineken shares up 0.4 percent at 40.93 euros
(Adds additional comments from interview, updates shares)
By David Jones and Sara Webb
AMSTERDAM, June 21 (Reuters) - The world's third-largest brewer Heineken appeared to rule out a multi-billion dollar counterbid for Australia's Foster's Group as it said growth outside Europe would come from emerging markets.
The Amsterdam-based brewer of its eponymous beer, Amstel and Dos Equis has made recent acquisitions in the emerging markets of Mexico, Nigeria and Ethiopia, and analysts say it shows little interest in the mature beer market of Australia.
"If you look at our expansion strategy, we see Europe as our home base. Europe is to a large extent profitable, but a very mature market, so you see the expansion we do outside Europe will be in emerging markets," Heineken's Chief Financial Officer Rene Hooft Graafland told Reuters in an interview on Tuesday.
"To do a mature deal completely outside that base is not making sense. Better spend your money on Mexico, Brazil, or Africa or Asian markets," said the 55-year-old, who has spent the last 30 years at the Dutch brewer.
He declined to comment directly on any bid for Foster's.
Global beer giant SABMiller launched a cash bid for the Australian brewer valued at A$9.5 billion ($10.1 billion), excluding debt, which Foster's rejected. Investors predicted Foster's would succumb to a higher offer.
Analysts said family-controlled Heineken did not have the firepower to mount a counterbid after its joint cash takeover of Scottish & Newcastle (S&N) in 2008 and last year's all-share acquisition of Mexico's FEMSA Cerveza.
"S&N made sense because it was predominantly a mature market deal but reinforced our position in Europe with a nice add-on in India, but the biggest part of that acquisition was Europe ... reinforcing our leadership in Europe," Hooft Graafland said.
Heineken shares were up 0.4 percent at 40.93 euros by 1430 GMT while SABMiller was down 3.4 percent at 21.08 pounds compared to a DJ European Food and Beverage index off 0.2 percent.
The group, which brews around a tenth of the world's beer and ranks behind Anheuser-Busch InBev and SABMiller, is looking at growing emerging markets, cost-cutting -- especially in Europe -- and bolt-on brewing acquisitions.
Heineken's three biggest markets are Mexico, Nigeria and Russia, and earns nearly half its profits from emerging markets, diluting its reliance on tough Western Europe beer markets. Heineken is No. 1 in Britain, Italy and the Netherlands.
"The emerging parts will grow faster than the mature markets, so over time you will get more out of emerging markets. At the same time you see the profile of a number of these emerging markets is becoming less risky," Hooft Graafland said.
He declined to comment on Heineken's interest in Schincariol, Brazil's privately owned second-largest brewer, which is reportedly up for sale for $2 billion. The FEMSA deal handed Brazil's No. 3 brewer Kaiser to Heineken.
"In Brazil, you would look at acquisitions, but there is no necessity to do deals," Hooft Graafland said.
He added that with group debt down to 8.1 billion euros at end-2010, and free operating cash flow last year of 2 billion euros, there is firepower to do deals if needed.
(Reporting by David Jones; Editing by Sara Webb, Sophie Walker and David Hulmes) ($1=.6162 Pound) (Reporting by Balazs Koranyi)
22 Jun. 2011