Beer market of Russia 2016: PET goes to draftThe beer market of Russia was warmed up by the hot summer, but the preparation for large volume PET prohibition has already impacted it negatively. The year was successful for Efes, MBC and regional producers; Carlsberg’s positions were virtually stable but AB InBev and Heineken lost a part of market share having focused on the sales profitability. The dynamics of big brands was determined by how much the companies were willing to keep the prices down or by their promotional activity. In this context the economy segment of the beer market and sales of inexpensive draft beer were increasing. The premium segment started shrinking due to license brands migrating to the mainstream segment.
Beer market of Vietnam: “Young tiger”Vietnam is one of the few big beer markets that continue to grow steadily. The beer popularity results from its low price, street consumption culture, and social motives. The outlooks of beer market as well as the Vietnamese economy inspire optimism, though the country is heavily dependent on export of goods. The state regulation can be called liberal, but the key risk for brewers is harbored in intensive rising of excise. Within TOP-4 there are two leaders, Sabeco and Heineken that grow at the fastest rates. The first company effectively employs its capacities, the second one focuses on marketing technologies. Almost 80% of the market belongs to century-old brands, yet the middle class and the youth are shifting their interest toward international premium that is growing taking share from the mainstream.
Analysis of beer market in China (on Russian)
Beer market of Ukraine: big three losing weightIn 2016, fast increase of excises and resulting price spike stood in the way of the beer market stabilization. Most of competition (as well as mass sorts) moved to the economy segment of the market. The biggest losses were incurred by the leading three, especially Obolon, which again experienced pressure after reallocation of Efes market share. However, one should already speak of TOP-4. Group Oasis CIS (PPB) became a strong player and competitor to transnational companies. Besides the net sales of many regional medium breweries look rather good and 16-fold cost reduction wholesale trade license for craft brewers opens up a possibility of rapid growth in 2017.
Modelo’s Oz exports seen at risk from SAB-Foster’s
* Success might mean problems for Modelo's Corona
* Analysts speculate on Australian distribution
Grupo Modelo's fast-growing export sales to Australia may be at risk if it has to look for a new distributor of its popular Corona brand Down Under if Foster's changes hands, analysts said on Tuesday.
SAB Miller (SAB.L) said it would keep talking to Foster's Group (FGL.AX) after it rejected SAB's A$9.5 billion ($10.1 billion) takeover offer as too low. Investors pushed up Foster shares in anticipation of an improved offer. [ID:nLDE75K1JW]
The possibility of SAB landing a stake or buying out Foster's, which holds a 50 percent and growing market share in Australia and distributes Corona there, could damage Modelo's brand presence, Credit Suisse said in a report.
"SAB Miller does not have a good experience in growing someone else's super-premium brands in a core market (see Amstel in South Africa) and may not want to pay up for Corona earnings that can walk out the front door," analysts Larry Gandler and Carlos Laboy wrote in a report.
"What are its (Modelo's) break-up clauses with Foster's in the event of a change of control at Foster's? For Modelo, it may need a new distributor in Australia."
Modelo declined to provide details about its distribution deal with Foster's. "We don't comment about the terms of the contracts with our importers," a company spokeswoman said.
Analysts, however, believe the agreement is becoming a crucial part of the Mexican brewer's export success.
Modelo's ties with Foster's have been good and are gaining momentum, analysts at Barclays Capital wrote in a report.
On a conference call to discuss first-quarter earnings in April, Modelo executives told analysts that Australia and New Zealand were among its fastest-growing beer markets.
"Specifically in Australia and New Zealand, consumers have showed great preference for our Corona Extra brand that continues gaining market share in the import segment," said Jose Pares, sales and marketing officer at Modelo.
Credit Suisse estimated Corona, Modelo's biggest-selling beer brand, makes up more than 5 percent of Foster's earnings. Australia is an important market for the Mexican firm, just after the United States and the United Kingdom.
Media reports earlier this month said Modelo (GMODELOC.MX) and Molson Coors Brewing Co (TAP.N) were mulling a joint bid for Foster's, but negotiations flopped due to a lack of consensus among the families who control the Mexican brewer.
Modelo has been traditionally averse to taking on debt to expand and has kept its focus on its home market in Mexico.
Modelo, its major shareholder Anheuser-Busch Inbev (ABI.BR) and SAB are seen by analysts as the only three brewers with sufficiently deep pockets to support a bid for Foster's. The company has never confirmed talks with Molson.
22 Jun. 2011