Beer market of Russia 2016: PET goes to draftThe beer market of Russia was warmed up by the hot summer, but the preparation for large volume PET prohibition has already impacted it negatively. The year was successful for Efes, MBC and regional producers; Carlsberg’s positions were virtually stable but AB InBev and Heineken lost a part of market share having focused on the sales profitability. The dynamics of big brands was determined by how much the companies were willing to keep the prices down or by their promotional activity. In this context the economy segment of the beer market and sales of inexpensive draft beer were increasing. The premium segment started shrinking due to license brands migrating to the mainstream segment.
Beer market of Vietnam: “Young tiger”Vietnam is one of the few big beer markets that continue to grow steadily. The beer popularity results from its low price, street consumption culture, and social motives. The outlooks of beer market as well as the Vietnamese economy inspire optimism, though the country is heavily dependent on export of goods. The state regulation can be called liberal, but the key risk for brewers is harbored in intensive rising of excise. Within TOP-4 there are two leaders, Sabeco and Heineken that grow at the fastest rates. The first company effectively employs its capacities, the second one focuses on marketing technologies. Almost 80% of the market belongs to century-old brands, yet the middle class and the youth are shifting their interest toward international premium that is growing taking share from the mainstream.
Analysis of beer market in China (on Russian)
Beer market of Ukraine: big three losing weightIn 2016, fast increase of excises and resulting price spike stood in the way of the beer market stabilization. Most of competition (as well as mass sorts) moved to the economy segment of the market. The biggest losses were incurred by the leading three, especially Obolon, which again experienced pressure after reallocation of Efes market share. However, one should already speak of TOP-4. Group Oasis CIS (PPB) became a strong player and competitor to transnational companies. Besides the net sales of many regional medium breweries look rather good and 16-fold cost reduction wholesale trade license for craft brewers opens up a possibility of rapid growth in 2017.
Predator keen to revitalise premium beer market
Drawing on a successful history of boosting sales in the strong beer markets of the Czech Republic and Poland, analysts yesterday said the maker of Grolsch has plenty of scope to build premium brands in Australia.
Fosters shares gained 1.17 per cent in trading yesterday, finishing at $5.20, with investors continuing to back the the move by Foster's earlier this week to knock back a $9.5 billion takeover proposal - with many analysts saying the bid will have to grow to at least $10.5 billion to succeed.
Analysts are now predicting SABMiller will have to return with a price from $5.25 to $5.50 - rather than the $4.90 initially offered.
SABMiller was believed to be trying to meet Foster's chairman David Crawford in London for negotiations.
While SABMiller on Tuesday said any purchase would be funded from existing profits and new debt facilities, Bloomberg yesterday reported the brewer would raise $10 billion in debt.
Analysts predict the play for Fosters will be a long-haul by the cashed up Anglo-African brewer which they say is driven by a belief no other serious bidders will emerge.
Pundits yesterday drew a picture in which SABMiller could effectively stare down Foster's to extract the lowest possible price.
Two key tactics include waiting for the Aussie dollar to drop and for Foster's results to reflect the brewer's weak operating position to investors.
"SABMiller's opening proposal of $4.90 was not a knockout offer," Credit Suisse analyst Larry Gandler said.
To further complicate matters analysts yesterday said SABMiller itself could be a takeover target -- and that the move on Foster's could be a bid to pick up a strategically important asset to make themselves too expensive for a predator.
Analysts yesterday said Foster's could do more to increase its Australian market.
"Our visits to Poland and Czech several years back left us impressed with management's ability to drive per capita consumption of beer in these relatively high per capita consumption markets," Mr Gandler said.
But Merrill Lynch analyst David Errington said there was also earnings potential in replacing the Abbotsford brewery with a state of the art facility.
Mr Errington said there would also be earnings of up to $100 million in reclaiming the 5 per cent market share lost over the past half decade.
23 Jun. 2011