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Global hop market

A local alternative to mass beer suggested by independent brewers has been successful and is now altering the global market. Beer is becoming more diversified, so transnational companies have to accept the new game rules and to switch focus to young and fast growing markets. All these processes increased the demand for aroma and bitter hop as well as their acreage expansion on two continents. However now there appeared a downward trend of alcohol consumption in the world, so even special sorts can soon turn to be sufficient. In this connection the dynamic American hop market is already facing some problems. EU hop producers have become more cautious, they are not racing to exceed the demand and look forward with more confidence, judging by the contract terms. 

Hop Market in Russia

Germany still dominates the Russian market, yet over the recent two years one has been able observe a continuous success of Czech hop suppliers. Their expansion and growing popularity of hops from the United States became the drivers of supplies growth in 2016 despite the preceding modest harvest crop in the EU, as well as the factor of relative stability in 2017. In this connection, in 2017, the ratio of the varieties continued to shift towards the aroma ones, and the supplies of Magnum hop and other alpha varieties were reduced. However, the import of bitter hop pellets is partially replaced by extracts, especially from the major beer manufacturers. Total volumes of alpha acid supplies, according to our estimation, decreased by approximately 5% and returned to the level of 2015. Barth Haas Group continues dominating the hop products market; HVG also increased its weight. At the same time, Morris Hanbury significantly reduced the supplies in 2017.


American beer market hasn’t gotten its fizz back

The U.S. beer market still hasn't gotten that fizz back, according to one UBS analyst.

Beer makers have seen their domestic sales volume slump for some time as the tough economy took an added toll on its core customers. That key market of men 21-34 years old has been hard hit by high unemployment that have cut into their buying power.
Companies have raised prices to offset slower sales and the market will eventually recover, said analyst Jason DeRise. But beer makers need that volume recovery for long-term survival. And right now it's not there: U.S. domestic beer shipments fell 2.7 percent in May, compared to the prior year.

In a note to investors, DeRise said he expects Anheuser-Busch's U.S. sales volume to fall for the year and to be flat in 2011. However, he reiterated a "Buy" rating on the parent company's stock as he sees it as undervalued.

Shares of Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA have traded between $47.65 and $64.77 during the past 52 weeks and were trading at $55.91 in afternoon trading Friday.

DeRise also lowered sales volume forecasts for MillerCoors for 2011 and 2012. He now expects volume declines of 0.8 percent and 2.1 percent for the respective years, down from earlier expecations of 1 percent growth in 2011 and flat volume growth in 2012. He lowered his earnings expectations for its parent company Molson Coors Brewing Co. to $3.71 per share for the year, down from $3.76 and 2012 estimate to $4.13, down from $4.20.

Beer sales should pick up in 2012 while those higher prices stick, DeRise said, which would drive strong profit growth.

25 Jun. 2011



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