10+1 trends of Russian beer market 2015-2017Despite of the moderately negative prognoses for 2017, the beer market can be stabilized soon. Yet the years of the negative dynamics have resulted in marketing being limited just to “optimization” and the art of balancing between price and volumes. Bigger supermarkets share means stronger trade marketing. These processes are connected to the majority of the described trends. At the same time, the federal brands inflation leads to searching for new tastes, sales channels and contact formats that expand the product range and diversify the beer market, but do not imply a substantial volume increase. Let us enumerate and further discuss the ten trends of the beer market we can see in 2015-2017 as well as the major event of 2017.
Beer market of Ukraine 2017In the first half of 2017, the Ukrainian beer market goes on decreasing slowly. Yet, the companies manage to compensate their lost volumes by raising prices and improving the sales structures. This results in the mid price market segment reduction while the sales of premium brands are rising. These processes are connected to position strengthening of companies Carlsberg Group and Oasis and the market share reduction of Obolon. Most of the novelties by the market leaders belong to craft or hard lemon categories.
Beer market of Russia 2016: PET goes to draftThe beer market of Russia was warmed up by the hot summer, but the preparation for large volume PET prohibition has already impacted it negatively. The year was successful for Efes, MBC and regional producers; Carlsberg’s positions were virtually stable but AB InBev and Heineken lost a part of market share having focused on the sales profitability. The dynamics of big brands was determined by how much the companies were willing to keep the prices down or by their promotional activity. In this context the economy segment of the beer market and sales of inexpensive draft beer were increasing. The premium segment started shrinking due to license brands migrating to the mainstream segment.
Beer market of Vietnam: “Young tiger”Vietnam is one of the few big beer markets that continue to grow steadily. The beer popularity results from its low price, street consumption culture, and social motives. The outlooks of beer market as well as the Vietnamese economy inspire optimism, though the country is heavily dependent on export of goods. The state regulation can be called liberal, but the key risk for brewers is harbored in intensive rising of excise. Within TOP-4 there are two leaders, Sabeco and Heineken that grow at the fastest rates. The first company effectively employs its capacities, the second one focuses on marketing technologies. Almost 80% of the market belongs to century-old brands, yet the middle class and the youth are shifting their interest toward international premium that is growing taking share from the mainstream.
Foster’s does not rule out takeover talks with SABMiller
* Says rejection of SABMiller bid did not mean it would not engage in talks
* Foster's rebrands beer business, tweaks name
* Shares trading barely above SABMiller's rejected offer (Adds analyst quotes, details)
Australian brewer and takeover target Foster's on Friday did not rule out takeover talks with suitor world No.2 SABMiller , but said the spurned $10.4 billion offer was so low it was not worth discussing.
Foster's new Chief Executive John Pollaers, facing a barrage of questions from analysts and shareholders at a business lunch, defended the board's decision to reject the deal and focus on restoring Foster's share in a declining Australian beer market.
"The value put on the table was so far away from reality that it wasn't worth engaging (with SABMiller)," Pollaers said.
But he added: "We are not saying that we would never engage. Our interest is the shareholders' interest."
Foster's, one of the last big prizes in a consolidating global beer market, has high margins and a 50 percent market share in Australia, where it brews the Victoria Bitter, Crown and Pure Blonde brands.
But it has been losing share as consumers switch from traditional brands to premium and craft beers, and on Friday Foster's launched a new logo, rebranding its main beer business with a minor change in name.
Pollaers said the brewer had the support of shareholders for its strategy of focusing on growing the business and not being distracted by the offer on the table.
But not all agreed.
"I would have thought if anyone approaches, you talk to them because you never know what can come of it," said Craig Young, portfolio manager at Tyndall Investment Management, which owns Foster's shares.
Reporting its first-quarter earnings last week, SABMiller, the maker of Miller Lite, Grolsch and Peroni, kept the market guessing if it will sweeten its bid.
Foster's rejected SABMiller's A$9.5 billion ($10.4 billion) offer last month and refused to enter discussions.
With no other bidders emerging since then, analysts have said SABMiller may be reluctant to bid against itself and could use Foster's upcoming annual results on Aug. 23 to put pressure on the Foster's board to negotiate.
SABMiller said in June it had shown no intention of going hostile, and it expected to engage the Foster's board in further talks.
It offered A$4.90 per share for Foster's, and after trading to a 10-month high of A$5.23, the shares have cooled in the absence of a rival bid to a slim premium over the offer price.
The shares dipped to A$4.98 on Thursday, recovering a bit on Friday to close at A$5.05, up 1.4 percent in a broader market down 0.9 percent.
STABILISED MARKET SHARE
Australia's beer market has declined in recent years, as consumers turn to wine and premixed drinks. But Foster's also has a large stable of traditional beers that are losing share to craft brands, and to main rival Kirin's Lion Nathan.
Pollaers said on Friday Foster's has stabilised its market share for the first time in 10 years and expects the beer sector to return to modest growth.
"We believe that once Australia moves through this period of economic uncertainty, the beer category will return to the long-term trend of modest growth," he said.
The past 12 months have been the most volatile the brewer has seen, mostly due to extreme weather conditions, including an unusually cool and wet southern hemisphere summer.
Pollaers took over as chief executive in May, after being the managing director of the beer business where he was the sixth chief in seven years.
"The company line is, Pollaers has to put his head down and he's got to regenerate the beer business and he has to put at the back of his mind the fact that SAB has approached them," said an analyst who declined to be named because he was not authorised to speak to the media.
Still, Pollaers answered questions for nearly half an hour, longer than his formal speech at the business lunch, and nearly all of them on the company's rejection of SABMiller.
Foster's has forecast its beer volumes in the latest six months to June would decline 3-4 percent, a slight improvement from the December half, but severe floods across eastern Australia earlier this year could have further weakened sales.
The brewer rebranded its beer business on Friday with a minor tweak to the brand name.
The beer business will be called Carlton United Brewers, a slight change from the original Carlton & United Breweries, in what Pollaers said was a renewed focus on beer following the split from the wine unit, Treasury Wine Estates .
TWE was listed separately on the stock exchange in May.
1 Aug. 2011