Beer market of Russia 2016: PET goes to draftThe beer market of Russia was warmed up by the hot summer, but the preparation for large volume PET prohibition has already impacted it negatively. The year was successful for Efes, MBC and regional producers; Carlsberg’s positions were virtually stable but AB InBev and Heineken lost a part of market share having focused on the sales profitability. The dynamics of big brands was determined by how much the companies were willing to keep the prices down or by their promotional activity. In this context the economy segment of the beer market and sales of inexpensive draft beer were increasing. The premium segment started shrinking due to license brands migrating to the mainstream segment.
Beer market of Vietnam: “Young tiger”Vietnam is one of the few big beer markets that continue to grow steadily. The beer popularity results from its low price, street consumption culture, and social motives. The outlooks of beer market as well as the Vietnamese economy inspire optimism, though the country is heavily dependent on export of goods. The state regulation can be called liberal, but the key risk for brewers is harbored in intensive rising of excise. Within TOP-4 there are two leaders, Sabeco and Heineken that grow at the fastest rates. The first company effectively employs its capacities, the second one focuses on marketing technologies. Almost 80% of the market belongs to century-old brands, yet the middle class and the youth are shifting their interest toward international premium that is growing taking share from the mainstream.
Analysis of beer market in China (on Russian)
Beer market of Ukraine: big three losing weightIn 2016, fast increase of excises and resulting price spike stood in the way of the beer market stabilization. Most of competition (as well as mass sorts) moved to the economy segment of the market. The biggest losses were incurred by the leading three, especially Obolon, which again experienced pressure after reallocation of Efes market share. However, one should already speak of TOP-4. Group Oasis CIS (PPB) became a strong player and competitor to transnational companies. Besides the net sales of many regional medium breweries look rather good and 16-fold cost reduction wholesale trade license for craft brewers opens up a possibility of rapid growth in 2017.
Brazil’s AmBev Shaping Up As Potential Leader
This column on Wednesday mentioned some of the highest-rated stocks from Latin America. Two names appeared in that search.
From Mexico, Fomento Economico Mexicano (FMX), or Fomex, is Latin America's largest nonalcoholic beverage company.
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From Brazil, Companhia de Bebidas das Americas (ABV), or AmBev, is Latin America's biggest brewery. The company also distributes Gatorade in a country that goes wild over sports.
Leader In Latin America
AmBev dominates Brazil's beer market with a 68% share. It also delivers several beer brands to 12 other Latin American markets.
Global beverage giant Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) bought a majority stake in AmBev seven years ago. AmBev now distributes Budweiser and Stella Artois in Canada, where it holds a 42% market share. AmBev also is the regional PepsiCo distributor.
Scrutiny of AmBev's chart shows a good — but not perfect — base.
AmBev is now in the eighth week of a cup-shaped base with a potential buy point at 34.78.
So what's wrong with the base? The right side is a bit steep, especially compared with the more evenly shaped left-side decline.
Accumulation and distribution are about evenly matched within the base, which has seen a large amount of volume. The base is V-shaped, which is poor form. It does reflect the market's volatility to some extent, though.
So what's right with AmBev's chart? Its base is a second-stage structure. Third- and fourth-stage bases reflect an older uptrend and are more prone to failure than first- or second-stage bases.
Its price action has been less volatile than the corrections of many other leading stocks.
AmBev posted earnings gains in the past four quarters ranging from 32% to 55%.
Estimates for the current period predict a rise of just 17%. That would be the softest such gain in five quarters.
Sales rose just 18% in the second quarter, the most recent report. That's lower than you'd want to see in a market leader.
But AmBev has accelerated its sales growth for three straight quarters. Taken together, AmBev's sales picture may be seen as a positive.
Finally, AmBev boasts the highest annual pretax margin — 39.2% — in its industry group.
Its 32.8% return on equity is second only to China New Borun (BORN), a Chinese small cap with its own set of problems.
AmBev is in IBD's alcoholic beverages industry group. It ranked 62nd out of 197 groups in Thursday's IBD, but the group has been climbing. It was 94th three weeks ago and 132nd six weeks ago.
29 Aug. 2011