10+1 trends of Russian beer market 2015-2017Despite of the moderately negative prognoses for 2017, the beer market can be stabilized soon. Yet the years of the negative dynamics have resulted in marketing being limited just to “optimization” and the art of balancing between price and volumes. Bigger supermarkets share means stronger trade marketing. These processes are connected to the majority of the described trends. At the same time, the federal brands inflation leads to searching for new tastes, sales channels and contact formats that expand the product range and diversify the beer market, but do not imply a substantial volume increase. Let us enumerate and further discuss the ten trends of the beer market we can see in 2015-2017 as well as the major event of 2017.
Beer market of Ukraine 2017In the first half of 2017, the Ukrainian beer market goes on decreasing slowly. Yet, the companies manage to compensate their lost volumes by raising prices and improving the sales structures. This results in the mid price market segment reduction while the sales of premium brands are rising. These processes are connected to position strengthening of companies Carlsberg Group and Oasis and the market share reduction of Obolon. Most of the novelties by the market leaders belong to craft or hard lemon categories.
Beer market of Russia 2016: PET goes to draftThe beer market of Russia was warmed up by the hot summer, but the preparation for large volume PET prohibition has already impacted it negatively. The year was successful for Efes, MBC and regional producers; Carlsberg’s positions were virtually stable but AB InBev and Heineken lost a part of market share having focused on the sales profitability. The dynamics of big brands was determined by how much the companies were willing to keep the prices down or by their promotional activity. In this context the economy segment of the beer market and sales of inexpensive draft beer were increasing. The premium segment started shrinking due to license brands migrating to the mainstream segment.
Beer market of Vietnam: “Young tiger”Vietnam is one of the few big beer markets that continue to grow steadily. The beer popularity results from its low price, street consumption culture, and social motives. The outlooks of beer market as well as the Vietnamese economy inspire optimism, though the country is heavily dependent on export of goods. The state regulation can be called liberal, but the key risk for brewers is harbored in intensive rising of excise. Within TOP-4 there are two leaders, Sabeco and Heineken that grow at the fastest rates. The first company effectively employs its capacities, the second one focuses on marketing technologies. Almost 80% of the market belongs to century-old brands, yet the middle class and the youth are shifting their interest toward international premium that is growing taking share from the mainstream.
Malaysia. Costly beer next year?
The price of barley in particular, a key raw material for the brewer, is expected to rise by between 35 per cent and 40 per cent next year, managing director Soren Ravn said.
The industry also saw natural gas go up by 28 per cent and power tariffs by 8.3 per cent from May to July.
"With raw material prices continuing to go up, we're sitting on a bomb next year," he told reporters here yesterday after its roundtable dialogue on the challenges of doing business in a rising cost environment with other leaders of the food and beverage industry.
Brewers here last raised beer prices in May, by about 3 per cent, to reflect higher raw material costs.
"(Another price increase) seems to be likely next year with the way things are moving now. The only price increase we could imagine this year would be in the unlikely event that there'll be a duty increase," Ravn said.
He doesn't think there'll be a duty hike as he believes the government understands that the non-intended effects of a hike - like an increase in smuggled goods and the tendency by consumers to shift towards products with higher alcoholic content - causes the government to lose potential tax revenue.
A duty hike would also be "counter-productive" for the Economic Transformation Programme, which counts tourism as a key element to boost the country's competitiveness, he said.
Analyst Vincent Khoo, who is also head of research at UOB Kay Hian Research, said the probability of a hike is higher this year given that the industry was given a respite from any hikes in the last five years, but he tends to agree with Ravn that it is "unlikely" to happen.
"This is because duties here are already among the highest in the world and the government isn't likely to want to burden the people further (with high prices), especially as we near a general election. It won't help the tourism industry either," he told Business Times.
Brewers raise beer prices every time there is an excise duty hike. In the last few years, consumption of beer and stout in Malaysia has been on a decline due to the relatively high prices.
Ravn expects consumption to grow by a "low single-digit" percentage this year as compared to Singapore, which is expected to grow twice as fast.
The impact of the higher costs on Carlsberg's earnings this year will be minor as it has already done all its hedging on raw materials a year ago.
"This year, we feel comfortable to deliver according to our targets," Ravn said, adding that the company had yet to hedge for next year.
Meanwhile, he said the company would continue to focus more on the profitable and growing premium beer segment, which currently constitutes about a tenth of its revenue, but growing fast. It has over 20 premium brands which include Kronenbourg 1664, Asahi and Hoegaarden.
Deputy managing director Datuk Chin Voon Loong said brewers in Malaysia have put in a proposal for the government to at least maintain the current level of excise duty for beer, introduce a less complicated and fairer tax structure for alcoholic products, and keep alcohol import duty at current levels.
On the tax reform, Chin said the government has acknowledged that that the current system is complicated and has started looking into it. Any changes, however, won't happen so soon as it will be done on a transitional basis, he said.
7 Sep. 2011